Bitcoin Forum

I'm loosing quite a bit of money and would like to understand.

You don't lose 'money' unless you sell. You still have all your BTC, its a good time to buy. :)

Well the thing is I had to make a payment today that I could not delay :/

EDIT :  Well I can delay my payment but i'm affraid it could be worse in the coming days...

Bitcoins are still a volatile currency, this is not the largest swing in the price history of BTC.

Hey,

Sorry to hear about this. There is a guy on twitter @SirBitsALot who thinks that it is deliberate price manipulation, checkout his videos on the right https://twitter.com/SirBitsALot

The best way to defend against this kind of behaviour is to have more exchanges. All the worst things about Bitcoin come from the surrounding centralised components like Gox. The work that has to be done now is P2P and open source exchanges.

Anyone have an challenges or thoughts?

I can't find the video.
Would you be kind enough to give a link ?

edit : ok just found it : http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MbrKKawist4

It already exists, localbitcoins

But what you want merchants to do?  Most have to exchange out right away after selling you something.  If we want the price to be more stable than there has to be a bigger ecology for BTC.  Where there is less rush to exchange out

That's putting the cart before the horse.  The reason the price swings so much is because the market is so thin.  Market orders (and therefore market depth) aren't (isn't) created by making more exchanges, they're made by people.  Making more exchanges just leads to a lot of ridiculous arbitrage during price swings like this.

It's a pity that I need to use sepa transfers that take quite some time to be executed or I would buy right now !
Price is going slowly going back up, I hope the manipulator will not hit again.

In commodity markets, including stocks and bitcoin, you can't be afraid of little dumps like this. If you buy a gold sovereign at $1500 and the price drops to $1300, you still have a gold sovereign. It's not as though you bought that coin intending to sell, even at a small net fiat profit anyway. Same applies to bitcoin. A price drop can be a buying opportunity iff you have spare fiat.

You are right unless you need to make a payment. I can delay the payment thanks god :)

Hope will get you nowhere, and you'll end up losing money either way.

You shouldn't have invested more than you afforded to lose.

Personally, I think bitcoins are worth less now that the difficulty has started to rise -- indicating that ASICs are starting to come on board more and more.  ASICs are inherently cheaper to run than GPU farms.  Since the whole backend of the bitcoin network has become cheaper to operate then the price should be adjusted accordingly.

perhaps this is people cashing in their BTC for USD to purchase chips.

I wonder if boycotting the exchanges and forcing those with Bitcoin to spend their Bitcoins online and do more transactions be useful?

If you check http://bitcoin.clarkmoody.com and select H4 and zoom out (scroll down) on the chart all the way you can see the 6/7 dumping pattern quite clearly. If this were just someone selling off their BTC this would be the worst way to do it, you would sell off gradually over time to get the best price.

I'm not sure about that. I think bitcoin prices are affected more by supply and demand than anything else and mining only affects supply a bit (and its a constant 25 bitcoins every ten minutes). (Specualation on the on the otherhand affect both Demand and Supply ALOT). However, I personally think ASIC companies are starting to cash out more to pay their bills.

Ah, but thats not the point for them. Their goal isn't to get the most fiat out of the sell. What they do is drop the price by selling a large amount of bitcoins for fiat. However, they they buy them all back up at the lower price when everyone else freaks out. The market price slowly recovers and they can do it again.

And your payment is in non-bitcoins?

Yes this is what I meant. It's not someone selling off their BTC for cash, just trying to play the market and shake weak hands out of their BTC. They clearly have a bullish position in the market which I take as a strong signal  ;)

you have a lot of big  piles re-upping into more chips/miners for the second wave of chasing coin

These early players made their fortune mining so that is all they know..  there needs to be an ecology for btc so there is less need to exchange out.  right now the Avalon chips sales and kncminer and probably bitfury all will need to convert asap so they can manufacture.

you will certainly get a fast dump if they are trying to beat the other ones to the punch.  Then you have miners that may have a big pile who are going to frontrun this situation as well..

too many public disclosures of impending transactions.... so..  BTFD!

Great logic.  Still holds if BTC crashes to $0.  Unless you sell, you've lost nothing :D

I can lose all that I have invested !
I don't understand your intervention...

How could you possibly know this? The only thing we know is that this dumper has (had?) a lot of BTC, and sold it for USD. What his motives are are pure speculation. Don't act like you know more about them.

are you in a cave??  you have a whole wave of miner coins going into new miners for fabrication..  those companies do not take btc to make chips/boards

either one of them are settling to put in their orders or someone is frontrunning them first and cashing out

it will get worse, since panics make more panics and then even when things settle and the new wave of miners make coins... they gotta square up their ROI right??  more selling

there needs to be more REASONS to buy..  not just banker fiat scares.  And then less reasons to sell, as in use btc more than just exchange to fiat. 
THEN there is the next layer, even if merchants come on board, they have to either use btc for other parts of their business expenses or they will have to exchange oiut.. so that is just one layer of ecology, not much defense. 

Who is going to step up and provide business services and supplies in btc?  that is what will begin more stability

This is the Avalon address that holds all the BTC they received as payment for their chip orders:

https://blockchain.info/address/1FGAftzSTztFSB8LMwsrdCKTyqGY6zr3sU

They haven't cashed out.  Also, this post indicates they aren't dumping their BTC to the market in a typical fashion:

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=227103.msg2399090#msg2399090

That is my point.. there are people that KNOW this now front and center (without speculating) that there are a pile of bitcoins that have to turn into cash at somepoint or lest you think those chips get created for free?  Or they take btc and sit on them as payment?

Add that to the other new wave of miner creation and you have the stage set for some frontrunning.

I bought a few at $94 and will probably sell at this recent bump since more pain is coming

If you watched the vidéo you would know it is not someone cashing out, or a very VERY stupid person.
This is really not the best way to cash out. No someone did this intentionally, watch the video !

You complained you had to pay back a loan, so no you can't lose your investment, hence my post.

I complained I have a payment to send and it is not at a good timing.
That does not mean I cannot afford to lose this money but that I would be pissed to lose it.

Let's try to keep on the subject of the thread please :)

you still dont get it.

if there was no impending settlements on new chips/miners going into production then you would be correct.  Someone would cash out smoother.  Or this would be an attempt to slam down the price.

But this screams of frontrunning KNOWN settlements that have deadlines for purchases.  

Read up on frontrunning.  

There will be a lot of volatility in the next 6 months,  first wave you are seeing now and will continue until all these new chips/miners are shipping to customers and then a pause then all the new miners chase their ROI before the other guy..  next spring it should settledown a bit.

It would be a good time now to get into the marketplace of accepting bitcoins for business if you can withstand the chaos..  or set up a VIX to trade on it.. lol

You should try to time your sells so that when you need to pay those bills, you'we got enough in fiat.

You could off course hope that this is a shot-lived dip. But if the price goes under $80, the trend will most likely be downwards for a few months.

We are at 98 usd/btc atm.

I'm fairly confident that it willl continue to go back up since we did not assist in massive panic sells.

edit : 101

It'll soon be Monday and the banks will be open again after the weekend with lots of new money flowing into exchanges to buy bitcoins. 

BTCs were sold to pre-order ASIC mining equipment from kncminer

This is not true. You're losing money even if you don't cashout.

Bitcoin has really high volatility, if you can't deal -20% (just "normal" swing) is better you stay out.


You're right. I don't understand why all ASIC mining equipment sellers don't accept only btc. This would be better for bitcoin economy, and also for them....

It is Sunday evening in the U.S. where for better or worse a large amount of the btc volume trading is conducted.  Fiat forex markets experience significant volume droughts during weekends as well, nothing unique to the btc world here.  Personally I view this as a buying opportunity for long term holders/investors.

For short term transactions it is unfortunate but if you immediately cashed out following receipt of btc you would not have suffered 20% losses the US$110-US$90 swing occurred over 6 hours on Mt. Gox as you can see from the charts on their website. 

I was wondering about this too.  We'll find out tomorrow when the exchanges and regular banks open up again if this is temporary or not.

This is the most important thing to consider when investing in anything.
Nothing is a sure bet and no matter how much you knew, everyone gets it wrong sometimes.

Few weeks ago I was pretty convinced I knew where the forex markets were going.
But a tiny hint that the fed may slow down the money printing sent markets reacting far more than I thought they would.
I messed up, I lost quite a bit of money. But it has no effect on my ability to pay my bills because I never depend on investments for living expenses.

Winkelvoss twins stated they owned xxx amount of btc.... market manipulation et al ... notice the 100,000 coin sell off and 125,000 re-buy... I'm sure their shill accounts will flame me for bringing this idea about.. eh not worried