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Economy => Speculation => Topic started by: lucas.sev on June 11, 2013, 03:35:53 PM



Title: What is the logical explaination for a single 5k buy causing 10 dollar slippage?
Post by: lucas.sev on June 11, 2013, 03:35:53 PM
On June 10th following events happened in few minutes:

0. 16k buy wall appears at 95
1. Less than a minute after there was one 400BTC buy which brought us from 95 to 99
2. Another 5k buy that had 10USD slippage.
3. Straight after price reached 110, A 4k bid wall at 110 was put and eaten, and price went down to around 106. (or less, I don't remember)

This all happened in a very, very short period of time. What could be the motivation of such thing happening?

Assuming it was same person who executed the buys, or at least the 5k buy, did this guy put the wall at 110 to assure trend reversal? This is quite a price to pay, as 110 has not been reached since then. I assume if the wall was not put we would go up to 110 and then crumble right back down, as gox 503'd at that time. So... what could it be? Just trying to learn.


Title: Re: What is the logical explaination for a single 5k buy causing 10 dollar slippage?
Post by: thezerg on June 11, 2013, 04:01:32 PM
sunday golfer on phone with broker: "its below 100?  Great, buy!"

Seriously, you guys read way too much into these things.  We've now got whales who don't understand the market depth issuing instructions to people who earn their $ as a percent of price*volume traded, not by profit.  Whale says "buy", broker buys and takes his cut.  Yes, a "clever" buying scheme could save the whale some $, but potentially at the cost of the broker (if he is unable to buy the full volume with careful bidding).



Title: Re: What is the logical explaination for a single 5k buy causing 10 dollar slippage?
Post by: lucas.sev on June 11, 2013, 04:03:33 PM
sunday golfer on phone with broker: "its below 100?  Great, buy!"

Seriously, you guys read way too much into these things.  We've now got whales who don't understand the market depth issuing instructions to people who earn their $ as a percent of price*volume traded, not by profit.  Whale says "buy", broker buys and takes his cut.  Yes, a "clever" buying scheme could save the whale some $, but potentially at the cost of the broker (if he is unable to buy the full volume with careful bidding).



Buy is not unusual, I am asking abut this particular buy + wall size of the buy thing.


Title: Re: What is the logical explaination for a single 5k buy causing 10 dollar slippage?
Post by: auto2nr1 on June 11, 2013, 04:12:58 PM
Please explain #2 for me. What is $10.00 slippage? Trying to learn.


Title: Re: What is the logical explaination for a single 5k buy causing 10 dollar slippage?
Post by: lucas.sev on June 11, 2013, 04:19:39 PM
Please explain #2 for me. What is $10.00 slippage? Trying to learn.

Basically that first coin of his buy order was at price $10 lower than last coin of his buy order.


Title: Re: What is the logical explaination for a single 5k buy causing 10 dollar slippage?
Post by: thezerg on June 11, 2013, 04:21:16 PM
Please explain #2 for me. What is $10.00 slippage? Trying to learn.

http://lmgtfy.com/?q=slippage (http://lmgtfy.com/?q=slippage)  ;D


Title: Re: What is the logical explaination for a single 5k buy causing 10 dollar slippage?
Post by: zoinky on June 11, 2013, 04:41:32 PM
Manipulating the market medium-long term provides enough gains to allow for such losses, or, fat fingers.


Title: Re: What is the logical explaination for a single 5k buy causing 10 dollar slippage?
Post by: lucas.sev on June 11, 2013, 05:10:57 PM
Manipulating the market medium-long term provides enough gains to allow for such losses, or, fat fingers.

What I want to know though, how these gains can be made by this 5k buy + 4k wall stunt?


Title: Re: What is the logical explaination for a single 5k buy causing 10 dollar slippage?
Post by: dbanga85 on June 11, 2013, 05:11:50 PM
On June 10th following events happened in few minutes:

1. There was one 400BTC buy which brought us from 95 to 99
2. Another 5k buy that had 10USD slippage.
3. Straight after price reached 110, A 4k bid wall at 110 was put and eaten, and price went down to around 106. (or less, I don't remember)

This all happened in a very, very short period of time. What could be the motivation of such thing happening?

Assuming it was same person who executed the buys, or at least the 5k buy, did this guy put the wall at 110 to assure trend reversal? This is quite a price to pay, as 110 has not been reached since then. I assume if the wall was not put we would go up to 110 and then crumble right back down, as gox 503'd at that time. So... what could it be? Just trying to learn.

It doesn't take a rocket scientist to see the market is being manipulated by a multimillionaire... If you think its going below 80 so the little guys like you can pick up some cheap coins keep dreaming..


Title: Re: What is the logical explaination for a single 5k buy causing 10 dollar slippage?
Post by: SgtSpike on June 11, 2013, 05:15:22 PM
Manipulating the market medium-long term provides enough gains to allow for such losses, or, fat fingers.

What I want to know though, how these gains can be made by this 5k buy + 4k wall stunt?
My assumption is that the person was hoping the 4k wall would stabilize the price.  It didn't, and he lost money.

Not everything works out perfectly for the big-money investors.


Title: Re: What is the logical explaination for a single 5k buy causing 10 dollar slippage?
Post by: dbanga85 on June 11, 2013, 05:16:35 PM
They fuck the market once a month on a weekend and take profits the rest of the month... Follow the Money man


Title: Re: What is the logical explaination for a single 5k buy causing 10 dollar slippage?
Post by: lucas.sev on June 11, 2013, 05:47:23 PM
Manipulating the market medium-long term provides enough gains to allow for such losses, or, fat fingers.

What I want to know though, how these gains can be made by this 5k buy + 4k wall stunt?
My assumption is that the person was hoping the 4k wall would stabilize the price.  It didn't, and he lost money.

Not everything works out perfectly for the big-money investors.


So you think his stunt has failed?


Title: Re: What is the logical explaination for a single 5k buy causing 10 dollar slippage?
Post by: Adrian-x on June 11, 2013, 06:49:53 PM
Manipulating the market medium-long term provides enough gains to allow for such losses, or, fat fingers.

What I want to know though, how these gains can be made by this 5k buy + 4k wall stunt?
Nothing to gain in the short term, I first noticed this manipulation Pattern in January of 2012, it has been discussed many times before, the strategy has been mocked too, sell high and but back higher. It may be playing in reverse now being somewhat a bear trading market.

The most effective strategy in response is never pay market price bid way under market 20-30%, hold, and only sell higher above your cost.  


Title: Re: What is the logical explaination for a single 5k buy causing 10 dollar slippage?
Post by: SgtSpike on June 11, 2013, 06:54:55 PM
Manipulating the market medium-long term provides enough gains to allow for such losses, or, fat fingers.

What I want to know though, how these gains can be made by this 5k buy + 4k wall stunt?
My assumption is that the person was hoping the 4k wall would stabilize the price.  It didn't, and he lost money.

Not everything works out perfectly for the big-money investors.


So you think his stunt has failed?
From the face of it, it appears so.

I can't think of any valid strategy where a bid wall eaten through is a positive for the bid wall owner.


Title: Re: What is the logical explaination for a single 5k buy causing 10 dollar slippage?
Post by: bitdominion on June 11, 2013, 07:33:55 PM
It's like watching a flame isn't it.

I like to answer in riddles so here's my best riddle:

What is the difference in %50 percent of your sell order if the bulk of your firesale is over %50 percent threshold from you landing point?

If you get this then you know why you put a wall in at %3 of the landing and put orders in at 4-10% to drag the price down while you rake in profits with upward momentum (up to %50 of your sale) during the market readjustment over 24-72 hours.

In other words look for the miniwalls (400btc and 300btc farther down the chain to see where these pressure points are going to be relieved... you'll see they are removed right before the bulk buy/sell)... the market depth will give you a clue as to which direction the buy/sell is going to go after you subtract the walls/miniwalls from either side.



Title: Re: What is the logical explaination for a single 5k buy causing 10 dollar slippage?
Post by: lucas.sev on June 11, 2013, 07:38:09 PM
It's like watching a flame isn't it.

I like to answer in riddles so here's my best riddle:

What is the difference in %50 percent of your sell order if the bulk of your firesale is over %50 percent threshold from you landing point?

If you get this then you know why you put a wall in at %3 of the landing and put orders in at 4-10% to drag the price down while you rake in profits with upward momentum (up to %50 of your sale) during the market readjustment over 24-72 hours.

In other words look for the miniwalls (400btc and 300btc farther down the chain to see where these pressure points are going to be relieved... you'll see they are removed right before the bulk buy/sell)... the market depth will give you a clue as to which direction the buy/sell is going to go after you subtract the walls/miniwalls from either side.



I'm sorry but the syntax you used in your answer makes it hard to understand. There was no sale happening, a buy of 5k happened and then another 4k were absorbed at 110 and did not stop the price from falling into 106. I think there was no way to make profit with these 4k coins bought at 110.

I  guess I could understand the reasoning behind the 5k buy but why put a wall at 110?


Title: Re: What is the logical explaination for a single 5k buy causing 10 dollar slippage?
Post by: Richy_T on June 11, 2013, 08:01:35 PM
Might be just looking for information for developing trading strategies. We all know a lot of walls are fake. Maybe this person wanted to see what happens if you throw in a big order at market. How many move? How many disappear? What happens afterward? If you clear out a big spread, how long does it take to "heal"?


Title: Re: What is the logical explaination for a single 5k buy causing 10 dollar slippage?
Post by: lucas.sev on June 11, 2013, 08:02:53 PM
Might be just looking for information for developing trading strategies. We all know a lot of walls are fake. Maybe this person wanted to see what happens if you throw in a big order at market. How many move? How many disappear? What happens afterward?

Which walls would he want to observe? His buy was calculated exactly to get to 110 in one swing.


Title: Re: What is the logical explaination for a single 5k buy causing 10 dollar slippage?
Post by: Richy_T on June 11, 2013, 08:03:58 PM
Might be just looking for information for developing trading strategies. We all know a lot of walls are fake. Maybe this person wanted to see what happens if you throw in a big order at market. How many move? How many disappear? What happens afterward?

Which walls would he want to observe? His buy was calculated exactly to get to 110 in one swing.

Good point.


Title: Re: What is the logical explaination for a single 5k buy causing 10 dollar slippage?
Post by: lucas.sev on June 11, 2013, 08:18:49 PM
I think there was no way to make profit with these 4k coins bought at 110.

Patience.

You mean same patience as I would have expressed by buying in now and coming back in 2 years?


Title: Re: What is the logical explaination for a single 5k buy causing 10 dollar slippage?
Post by: bitdominion on June 11, 2013, 08:48:09 PM
Quote
I'm sorry but the syntax you used in your answer makes it hard to understand. There was no sale happening, a buy of 5k happened and then another 4k were absorbed at 110 and did not stop the price from falling into 106. I think there was no way to make profit with these 4k coins bought at 110.

I  guess I could understand the reasoning behind the 5k buy but why put a wall at 110?

I see (additionally) why my response was confusing: I'm still analysing the data drops on 08-Jun-2013. Sorry for the confusion.
Though I did see the spike on 10-Jun I wasn't watching at the time. Unsure as to his/her intent... though the median was 107 after the fallout from that spike from a low of 104 just prior; again depending on where the bulk of his volumes were he may have not realised as much profit pushing into the 110 and above range? Chances are he bought allot of bite-size chunks in the 90's range just before that in order to maximise that spike?


Title: Re: What is the logical explaination for a single 5k buy causing 10 dollar slippage?
Post by: lucas.sev on June 11, 2013, 08:53:36 PM
Quote
I'm sorry but the syntax you used in your answer makes it hard to understand. There was no sale happening, a buy of 5k happened and then another 4k were absorbed at 110 and did not stop the price from falling into 106. I think there was no way to make profit with these 4k coins bought at 110.

I  guess I could understand the reasoning behind the 5k buy but why put a wall at 110?

I see (additionally) why my response was confusing: I'm still analysing the data drops on 08-Jun-2013. Sorry for the confusion.
Though I did see the spike on 10-Jun I wasn't watching at the time. Unsure as to his/her intent... though the median was 107 after the fallout from that spike from a low of 104 just prior; again depending on where the bulk of his volumes were he may have not realised as much profit pushing into the 110 and above range? Chances are he bought allot of bite-size chunks in the 90's range just before that in order to maximise that spike?

The bulk buy is not puzzling, the puzzling thing is that 50% of coins bought were at 110, while other 50% were between 110 and 100.


Title: Re: What is the logical explaination for a single 5k buy causing 10 dollar slippage?
Post by: Rampion on June 11, 2013, 08:55:51 PM
Manipulating the market medium-long term provides enough gains to allow for such losses, or, fat fingers.

What I want to know though, how these gains can be made by this 5k buy + 4k wall stunt?
My assumption is that the person was hoping the 4k wall would stabilize the price.  It didn't, and he lost money.

Not everything works out perfectly for the big-money investors.


So you think his stunt has failed?
From the face of it, it appears so.

I can't think of any valid strategy where a bid wall eaten through is a positive for the bid wall owner.

I can. Put your bid near important support points where you expect the price to rebound up.


Title: Re: What is the logical explaination for a single 5k buy causing 10 dollar slippage?
Post by: bitdominion on June 11, 2013, 09:03:56 PM
Quote
I'm sorry but the syntax you used in your answer makes it hard to understand. There was no sale happening, a buy of 5k happened and then another 4k were absorbed at 110 and did not stop the price from falling into 106. I think there was no way to make profit with these 4k coins bought at 110.

I  guess I could understand the reasoning behind the 5k buy but why put a wall at 110?

I see (additionally) why my response was confusing: I'm still analysing the data drops on 08-Jun-2013. Sorry for the confusion.
Though I did see the spike on 10-Jun I wasn't watching at the time. Unsure as to his/her intent... though the median was 107 after the fallout from that spike from a low of 104 just prior; again depending on where the bulk of his volumes were he may have not realised as much profit pushing into the 110 and above range? Chances are he bought allot of bite-size chunks in the 90's range just before that in order to maximise that spike?

The bulk buy is not puzzling, the puzzling thing is that 50% of coins bought were at 110, while other 50% were between 110 and 100.

Then I agree with the others to say he most likely miscalculated.... though who knows where he bought and where he want the turn to adjust to. Chances are the person responsible for the cascade from 130 - 94 in the past week is the same person with the purchasing power of 10k+ btc. So this person or group will win all the way through. and back to market parity.


Title: Re: What is the logical explaination for a single 5k buy causing 10 dollar slippage?
Post by: prof7bit on June 12, 2013, 01:41:44 PM
The bulk buy is not puzzling, the puzzling thing is that 50% of coins bought were at 110, while other 50% were between 110 and 100.

This happens when you enter a bid for 9k @ $110 while the price is still lower than 110. This works like a market order with an upper price limit. It bought everything up to and including 110 and then left the remainder as a limit buy at 110. So it doesn't need to be some complicated strategy to produce these symptoms, just a simple "buy 9k at 110" and then click "ok". It might also have been an accident, maybe he confused buy and sell and actually wanted to enter a limit sell: "sell 9k at 110" but accidentally was on the wrong tab.


Title: Re: What is the logical explaination for a single 5k buy causing 10 dollar slippage?
Post by: lucas.sev on June 12, 2013, 01:46:41 PM
The bulk buy is not puzzling, the puzzling thing is that 50% of coins bought were at 110, while other 50% were between 110 and 100.

This happens when you enter a bid for 9k @ $110 while the price is still lower than 110. This works like a market order with an upper price limit. It bought everything up to and including 110 and then left the remainder as a limit buy at 110. So it doesn't need to be some complicated strategy to produce these symptoms, just a simple "buy 9k at 110" and then click "ok". It might also have been an accident, maybe he confused buy and sell and actually wanted to enter a limit sell: "sell 9k at 110" but accidentally was on the wrong tab.

How a simple fuckup causes trend reversal  ;D


Title: Re: What is the logical explaination for a single 5k buy causing 10 dollar slippage?
Post by: bitdominion on November 30, 2013, 01:22:46 AM
My how things have changed.