Bitcoin Forum

http://theeconomiccollapseblog.com/archives/48-percent-of-americans-believe-another-great-depression-is-likely-in-the-next-12-months-19-reasons-why-they-are-not-completely-crazy

So, assuming we're going to be in the next Great Depression in 12 months or so, will Bitcoin remain true as a safe haven for our wealth and labor?

Well, increasingly desperate govts will probably be unable to confiscate them.

Well, there's one argument for higher dollar valuation for BTC as prices inflate. We'll know we're on the right track when BTC exceeds precious metal peaks.

don't put all eggs in one basket

don't eat only eggs

Too young.

we're already in the depression, it will just worsen.  The consumer is toast and
Housing is being given away to squatters.  The happy time news doesnt convey the reality.
People in the industries know whats up and it aint pretty.

On top of this gold and silver are in break down patterns.  So that wealth preservation is eroding, mostly due to the comex cartel.
Physical is being priced much differently however.

Will BTC be a wealth preserver?  Id say not much better than silver, if even that good. BTC is a speculative vehicle for the moment, anything is possible until it actually gets some real meaning.  

A far more interesting question is whether or not the dollar will be allowed to fall in value and thus reduce America's debts.  If it does, then Bitcoin, commodities and the Swiss Franc are a one way bet for people with significant dollar exposure.

As the US sinks in economic importance relative to Asian countries, it becomes increasingly likely that the USD will lose its status as the world reserve currency. And when THAT happens (whether slowly or all at once), the foreign-held dollars that are used for reserve will be sold off relative to other assets. The dollar will plummet in value, because the demand for it as a reserve will be lost - and this demand is currently massive.

So the dollar will decline severely, and people around the world will be looking for substitutes and alternatives. Bitcoin is one such alternative, so yes as the US falls apart BTC will almost necessarily gain in value relative to the USD, and probably other fiat currencies as well.

This is staggeringly alarming!

A lot of us on this forum have probably been assuming a massive collapse since 2008, but for the reality to hit the collective consciousness like this means we're probably hitting the knee of the curve then onwards full speed to SHTF time?

I would spread wealth around all commodities, including Bitcoin, and not forgetting food/water.

Break down patterns? What in the world are you talking about? They're in consolidation patterns right now, likely to start moving up sharply in the next few weeks.

Break down pattern? Nonsense. If you are talking about the comex paper trading yes that's true but that was never a wealth preservation mechanism. It was a trading mechanism.

I agree with you that BTC is entirely speculative at the moment so to predict it's price action would be futile. A wealth preserver? I would say that yes, BTC will have value on the other side of the coming devaluation. Will it be the best wealth preserver? That's the question. I personally do not think so. I think the tried and true will be turned to first: silver and gold.

BTC will survive though and may even thrive shortly thereafter. The world I see post USD will be mostly digital silver and gold anyway so this will lend credibility to BTC. People will see it as all digital so what's the damn difference? "What's easier for me to get?"

Am I buying BTC with this knowledge? Yes. Why? Because I already own silver and getting BTC isn't any easier. And besides, you never know!!!   ;)

Most people who think a Great Depression is coming think their prospects for a job are reduced. Maybe less frappacinos. Most are still unaware of the currency dangers out there.

No offense friend but that is not an interesting question to a student of monetary history. It's money 101. In any fiat currency system the most common method to cover your debts is to devalue your currency. Better to have an ill equipped irate citizenry than to default on soverign debt and pay the price for SCORES of years. TPTB devalue the currency, create an enemy then go to war satiating the blood lust of the citizens who are PISSED that they have no money.

You are correct, the CHF and BTC and shoe strings will gain value relative to the USD.

Prozac and Zoloft sales are through the roof! We're already in a global depression. :P

I think a depression is a big negative for bitcoin.  

First of all, it's deflationary, so BTC loses that advantage over USD.  (Of course, if we react with hyperinflation, that's another matter, but such episodes are rarely the preferred way out of a deflationary debt spiral.  Usually, it's a combination of default and austerity.)

Second, and relatedly, when people are strapped, they do not have as much money for speculation, but will cash out their BTC for dollars to make everyday purchases.  This is why gold actually dropped during the last crash.

Third, if a depression hits very soon, we won't have the startup funds and energy to really get a genuine bitcoin economy up and running.

Fourth, bitcoin can be a scapegoat in depression and governments get bolder about taking financial control when they feel the anger of desperate banks / constituents.

For bitcoin's sake, I hope we have mild economic weather ahead, at least in the short term.

The only reason that the dollar hasn't failed spectacular to date, is probably due to its current use in international trade and due to the fact of it being held as sovereign debt by other nations.  It would not be in US$ debt holder's interest to see their asset being trashed.  So they will hold on to the paper and not dump it - even if the paper does not have the face value any more.  In the process the inflated reduced value can be exported to foreign holders of US$ debt.  Domestically alone there is no way that the dollar can retain its value with interest rates this low and domestic inflation that can only be higher than current low domestic interest rates.  If you as a US$ holder want to protect your holdings by collecting interest to protect yourself against inflationary erosion or money supply expansion - you would need an interest rate higher than the sum of inflationary erosion or money supply expansion.

Settle yourself there hoss.
Youll be educated.
34.50 WAS long term support.
If 32 breaks....were looking at significant decline.

False Assumption. Biased source.

Bitcoin will be supported by illicit trade until the US government has something to gain by seizing the exchange servers. Until then, party hats!

This stuff has a failure rate of 100%.

48 percent of Americans say another great depression is likely? Hmmm... 48 percent of Americans also don't believe in evolution... Jus sayin'

Atlas - I agree that we have difficult times ahead, but don't you realize that reading all the doomsday shit only makes you more paranoid? Do you really feel like you are one of the few that sees things as they are and everyone else is asleep. You are Neo?

+1

Assuming this, like most uneducated attempts at predicting America's economic future, are wrong, I don't think there will be need for bitcoin, gold, oil, or any other 'safe haven' - the dollar will do just fine.

What's always got to me is that the [edit: lead up to the] crash of 2008 was never reported in the popular press, probably due to normalcy bias. And that crash was seismic. And they only papered over the cracks, didn't they? And half the alternative media are predicting something dire coming? And they're not all crazies. So that's why I allow myself to become slightly paranoid, just in case.

What do you mean it wasn't reported?

Heres a view into the depression world.  Read the posts, alot of desperation from young and old people alike.

http://www.homelessforums.org/forumdisplay.php?s=9a692229f4edde18d920b2d2b05042f6&f=3

lol sorry. I meant the lead up to it was never reported. When the banks started crashing it was a shock to everyone, no?

And the solution for our problem:

30 MILLION PRODUCTIVE JOBS TO REBUILD US INFRASTRUCTURE, INDUSTRY AND
AGRICULTURE: THE PROGRAM TO END THE ECONOMIC DEPRESSION
by Webster G. Tarpley, www.tarpley.net
November 14, 2009  {Although this still clearly applies to our present situation}
The US and the world are gripped by a deepening economic depression. There is no recovery and no automatic business
cycle which will revive the economy. This bottomless depression will worsen until policies are reformed. The depression
results from deregulated and globalized financial speculation, especially the $1.5 quadrillion world derivatives bubble.
The US industrial base has been gutted, and the US standard of living has fallen by almost two thirds over the last four
decades. We must reverse this trend of speculation, de-industrialization, and immiseration. Current policy bails out
bankers, but harms working people, industrial producers, farmers, and small business. We must defend civil society and
democratic institutions from the effects of high unemployment and economic breakdown. We therefore demand:
1. Measures to reduce speculation and minimize the burden of fictitious capital: End all bailouts of banks and
financial institutions. Claw back the TARP and other public money given or lent to financiers. Abolish the notion of too
big to fail; JP Morgan, Goldman Sachs, Citibank, Wells Fargo and other Wall Street zombie banks are insolvent and must
be seized by the FDIC for chapter 7 liquidation, with derivatives eliminated by triage. Re-institute the Glass-Steagall
firewall to separate banks, brokerages, and insurance. Ban credit default swaps and adjustable rate mortgages. To generate
revenue and discourage speculation, levy a 1% Tobin tax (securities transfer tax or trading tax) on all financial
transactions including derivatives (futures, options, indices, and over the counter derivatives), stocks, bonds, foreign
exchange, and commodities, especially program trading, high-frequency trading, and flash trading. Set up a 15% reserve
requirement for all OTC derivatives. Use Tobin tax revenue and a revived corporate income tax to provide immediate tax
relief to individuals, families, the self-employed, and small business by increasing personal exemptions and standard
deductions. Stop all foreclosures on primary residences, businesses, and farms for five years or the duration of the
depression, whichever lasts longer. Set a 10% maximum rate of interest on credit cards and payday loans. Re-regulate
commodities markets with 100% margin requirements, position limits, and anti-speculation protections for hedgers and
end users to prevent oil and gasoline price spikes. Enforce labor laws and anti-trust laws against monopolies and cartels.
Restore individual chapter 11.
2. Measures to nationalize the Federal Reserve, cut federal borrowing, and provide 0% federal credit for
production: Seize the Federal Reserve and bring it under the US Treasury as the National Bank of the United States, no
longer the preserve of unelected and unaccountable cliques of incompetent and predatory bankers. The size of the money
supply, interest rates, and approved types of lending must be determined by public laws passed and debated openly,
passed by the congress and signed by the president. Stop US government borrowing from zombie banks and foreigners --
let the US government function as its own bank. Reverse current policy by instituting 0% federal LENDING with
preferential treatment for tangible physical production and manufacturing of goods and commodities, to include industry,
agriculture, construction, mining, energy production, transportation, infrastructure building, public works, and scientific
research, but not financial services and speculation. Issue successive tranches of $1 trillion as needed to create 30 million
union-wage productive jobs and attain full employment for the first time since 1945, reversing the secular decline in the
US standard of living. Provide 0% credit to reconvert idle auto and other plants and re-hire unemployed workers to build
modern rail, mass transit, farm tractors, and aerospace equipment, including for export. Extend 0% federal credit for
production to small businesses like auto and electronics repair shops, dry cleaners, restaurants, tailors, family farms, taxis,
and trucking. Maintain commercial credit for retail stores. Create an unlimited rediscount guarantee by the National Bank
for public works projects to provide cash to local banks for bills of exchange pertaining to infrastructure and public works.
Repatriate the foreign dollar overhang by encouraging China, Japan, and other dollar holders to place orders for US-made
capital goods and modern hospitals. Revive the US Export-Import Bank. Set up a 10% tariff to protect domestic re-
industrialization. Nationalize and operate GM, Chrysler, CIT, and other needed but insolvent firms as a permanent public
sector. Maintain Amtrak and USPS.
3. Measures to re-industrialize, build infrastructure, develop science drivers, create jobs, and restore a high-wage
economy: state and local governments and special government agencies modeled on the Tennessee Valley Authority will
be prime contractors for an ambitious program of infrastructure and public works subcontracted to the private sector. To
deal with collapsing US infrastructure, modernize the US electrical grid and provide low-cost energy with 100 fourth
generation, pebble bed, high temperature reactors of 1,000 to 2,000 megawatts each. Rebuild the rail system with 50,000
miles of ultra-modern maglev Amtrak rail reaching into every state. Rebuild the entire interstate highway system to 21st
century standards. Rebuild drinking water and waste water systems nationwide. Promote canal building and irrigation. For
health care, build 1,000 500-bed modern hospitals to meet the minimum Hill-Burton standards of 1946. Train 250,000
doctors over the next decade. The Davis-Bacon Act will mandate union pay scales for all projects. For the farm sector,
provide a debt freeze for the duration of the crisis, 0% federal credit for working capital and capital improvements, a ban
on foreclosures, and federal price supports at 110% of parity across the board, with farm surpluses being used for a new
Food for Peace program to stop world famine and genocide. Working with other interested nations, invest $100 billion
each in: biomedical research to cure dread diseases; high energy physics (including lasers) to develop fusion power and
beyond; and a multi-decade NASA program of moon-Mars manned exploration, permanent colonization, and industrial
production. These science drivers will provide the technological spin-offs to modernize the entire US economy in the
same way that the NASA moon shot gave us microchips and computers in the 1960s. These steps will expand and upgrade
the national stock of capital goods and enhance the real productivity of US labor. Return the federal budget and foreign
trade to surplus in 5 years or less.
4. Measures to defend and expand the social safety net: Restore all cuts; full funding at improved levels for Social
Security, Medicare, Medicaid, food stamps, jobless benefits, WIC, Head Start, and related programs. Offer Medicare for
All to anyone under 65 who wants it at $100 per person per month, with reduced rates for families, students, and the
unemployed. Pay for this with Tobin tax revenues and TARP clawback, and by ending the Iraq and Afghan wars. Seek to
raise life expectancy by five years for starters. No rationing or death panels; savings can come only by finding cures.
Quickly reach a $15 per hour living wage. Repeal the Taft-Hartley Act and affirm the right to organize. Pass card check to
promote collective bargaining.
5. Measures to re-launch world trade and promote world recovery: Create a new world monetary system including
the euro, the yen, the dollar, and the ruble, plus emerging Arab and Latin American regional currencies, with fixed
exchange rates and narrow bands of fluctuation enforced by participating governments. Institute clearing and gold
settlement among member states. Replace the IMF with a Multilateral Development Bank to finance world trade and
infrastructure. The goal of the system must be to re-launch world trade through exports of high-technology capital goods,
especially to sub-Saharan Africa, south Asia, and the poorer parts of Latin America. Promote a world Marshall Plan of
great projects of world infrastructure, including: a Middle East reconstruction and development program; plans for the
Ganges-Bramaputra, Indus, Mekong, Amazon, and Nile-Congo river basins; bridge-tunnel combinations to span the
Bering Strait, the Straits of Gibraltar, the Straits of Malacca, the Sicilian narrows, and connect Japan to the Asian
mainland; second Panama canal and Kra canals; Eurasian silk road, Cape to Cairo/Dakar to Djibouti, Australian coastal,
and Inter-American rail projects, and more. American businesses will receive many of these orders, which means
American jobs.
This program will create 30 million jobs in less than five years. It will end the depression, rebuild the US economy,
improve wages and standards of living, re-start productive investment, and attain full employment with increased
levels of capital investment per job. Most orders placed under this program will go to US private sector bidders.
Because of the vastly increased volume of goods put on the market, inflation will not result.

Some sad stuff to read.

I, for one, would welcome some good old hyperinflation.  The interest rates on my student and home loans are fixed, so a massive increase in valuation (compared to USD), would be very welcome.  The hardest part would be WHILE it was happening, and continuing to be able to buy food, gas, etc until I got a cost of livings wage increase.  But once the dust settled, anyone holding assets secured by debt would come out way ahead.

The downside is, my meager 401k would become virtually worthless.  Well, unless the mutual funds it is invested in somehow rebounded.

Atlas,

I used to skip over articles like those. They were the type my dad read and kept warning everyone about imminent danger on Wall Street. As he slowly pulled his money out and transferred it over to gold and silver.

We were all suckers, and I like to think I learned at least a small lesson from that. If nothing else, read EVERYTHING you can. You never know when one of them will be right, and it will pay off to have put a bit away into metals (or BTC as the case may now be.)

Although, I do think there is a strong argument for BTC being next to worthless here in the USA if the dollar really does collapse. People will be too busy just trying to get by for a while for it to be valuable as an exchange medium. Food, water, ammo, and maybe metals again may be the way to go.

However, I can see the value of BTC rising globally as people look for an alternative to the crashing USD.

Me, I'm gonna play it safe and cover all my bases.

Thank you for the article. It was a decent read.

I completely agree with this. Look at the gold chart for 2008/2009. It dropped in this time. I suspect also bitcoins value will drop in depressions. But like gold i think it will not go to zero.

+eleventy

18 percent of americans believe the sun revolves around the Earth. 3% had no opinion.  No opinion?  I think that's actually worse. Source: http://www.gallup.com/poll/3742/new-poll-gauges-americans-general-knowledge-levels.aspx (http://www.gallup.com/poll/3742/new-poll-gauges-americans-general-knowledge-levels.aspx)

I don't accept anything at face value. As I've always said, in the end, I know nothing. However, it's good to make a choice.

By a number of metrics, we already are as bad economicly as during the early part of the depression.  That said, it doesn't feel like as bad to us, because we are all used to the history talking about starvation of Americans and adject poverty.  We don't see starvation because of advances in mechanical agriculture (bear in mind, in 1929 the automobile was a status symbol, farm tractors were uncommon, and most family owned farms still depended upon working animals), advances in botany in general, and the so called 'green revolution'.  http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Green_Revolution

We are the beneficiaries of these events, and they have been buffering our population against the full brunt of a depression.  That said, the effects are present, and a rising number of American families are direct beneficiaries of "nutritian programs" such as food stamps, WIC, ecetera.

The hallmark of such events is wealth transfer.  If the government takes steps to confiscate 401k's like gold was confiscated in the 1930's, there will be a mad dash into safe havens of value, and if Bitcoin is close to maturity (it's not remotely right now) then it's value would shoot to the moon as measured against fiat currencies.

I'm putting my money in precious metals and bitcoins. I've been stacking silver for a few months now, and look forward to silver dropping more so I can get in with even more physical, but I also like bitcoins quite a bit.

Technical Analysis is worthless in heavily manipulated markets - I'd say that describes COMEX silver, and thus world spot price - How bout you?

One of the reasons I like bitcoin. Building charts of a market that isn't full of High Frequency Trading algos is a welcome relief. Hell, the chart patterns look like they'll work here. Exciting times.

Oh god yes, I've been LOVING even the tiny data windows tradehill gives you, because if you watch it for a while (and refresh) you can actually literally see the market move, which is just not true in "real" markets.

There is a day coming where there will either be clean exchanges, or none at all.

Whether or not the economy hits the toilet,
Bitcoin's value is dependent on a strong infrastructure.

That is why it is so exciting to those who see the future of Bitcoin.
Is it speculative? Yes. Is it overpriced right now? Yes.

But if all the bugs get worked, and the infrastructure is strong,
and if you can simply press a button on your phone and send
Bitcoin safely, cheaply, and easily anywhere in the world...
well then .00000001 Bitcoin will be something worth having.

The beauty is that Bitcoin is what it is. The hard part has been
done. I don't care what the dollar or gold does. They will
continue to exist, it is a matter how established and intertwined
Bitcoin can become in society.

The internet in the beginning, to those from the outside, was
weird, clunky, not useful, a side item in society. For those who
understood what it could be, the internet was going to change
the world.

Enter Bitcoin. It may take many years, but I think we can see
that this will be world changing... at some point change the way
we spend, earn, and pay.

-2

Scientific American - April 20011 - Quantum Gaps in the Big Bang Theory - Why our best explanation of how the universe evolved must be fixed - or replaced.

Scientists are in full retreat mode on the theory of our origins. Its nice to hear them admit they were wrong.

Now, what were you saying about Americans?

We're not in a recession or a depression. This is just the way it is now.

Alex Jone's Infowars site is always worth a read

http://infowars.com

Infowars website usually has a good take on events.

http://infowars.com

I'm over my Alex Jones phase, too much fear mongering and profiting off of hyping up things every day. There is some truth to it, but a heavy portion of it's fear mongering to make profits off of people.

The problem is that evolution doesn't depend on people trust. The financial system does.

+1

Science is not an unchanging, static belief system.  You are confusing it with the religions, which keep most of mankind enslaved with a kind of mental ball and chain.

The Scientific Method provides a way for science to adjust its theories and paradigms as new data and phenomena emerge. 

That is the beauty of science, and the hideous truth of Absolute Belief.

First off, theeconomiccollapseblog.com is a sketchy website.

In my opinion, #7 is actually a good thing. And #9 (large investment firms laying people off) is fantastic news.

Is it just me or does the source of that article seem just a tad bit biased lol theeconomiccollapseblog.com

Oh, ok. You read a lot of emotion in that? Hoss.

And if we don't break 32 you'll be educated? One of us is going to get an education huh? Right. If the price goes down nothing changes long term. I give a rat's ass about short term price movements because of a manipulated paper market. It means nothing.

Besides a "significant decline" would bring on too much physical buying. Not even JP Morgan wants that.

Dude I'm not trying to make you wrong and me right. chill

How'd you get a magazine from the future?

I say, we should rule out hyperinflation by demanding that all governments adopt Bitcoins as the new fundamental entity that all sovereign / central bank currencies are required to be backed by; it can be the new medium for international settlements.   :)

Declaring that 1 US dollar (Federal Reserve Note) is convertible to 0.00001 BTC sounds about right - that makes the base money supply about US$2T (asymptotically, once all Bitcoins are mined), which is about the same amount that exists in physical coins and bills today.  And corresponding conversion factors can be adopted for GBP, Euros, etc.  Then basically the entire world will be on one monetary system - Bitcoins - and international trade can be much more streamlined.  But all of the existing financial infrastructure can remain in place.

See my new blog post - http://minetopics.blogspot.com/2011/06/bitcoin-banking-and-new-gold-standard.html
And feel free to repost it widely.  :)

15 years and it won't make any difference.

Interesting. But what should become of all that precious gold? I do agree with you that the banks should be able to work with BTC. Totally viable.

48% of people are not very smart apparently.

Nope, and it reminds me of when president Eisenhower flew into a rage when he was told by his advisors that 50% percent of Americans were of below average intelligence...

Seems I recall in the US 2000 census that 13% of the population did not know who the President of the US was..... ???

When the world replace the US Dollar as reserve currency the USA will definitely get into another depression. A lot of countries will suffer but I believe the USA will have the hardest time of them all.
The world cannot simply accept the USD forever since the Federal Reserve just keeps printing more and more all the time.
There is a reason gold and silver have skyrocked to record levels and there is a reason countries all over the world tries to get rid of all their US treasury bonds.
I would advice all US citizens to save some of their money in gold and silver, remember that you dont lose your money you just replace it in another currency. Gold and silver will never go down to zero unlike the USD that have that possibility.
http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_TKwsCwZoDHg/TKv2HML1YjI/AAAAAAAACKk/gZoHJr-VQcY/s1600/Inflation-1923.jpg

Heh... back in 2000 NOBODY knew who the president was :-)

What an absolute and utter idiot you are.

Sort of proved my point, didn't s/he?

The future is going to rock big time-
Focus on the positive, list your desires and aspirations and work towards them. Drop the TV, doom and gloom end of world scenarios and everything remotely related to fear, such as the title of this thread, it makes you feel and act powerlessly.

Take control and responsibility for your life, forgive your errors and mistakes of the past, let go of resentment, anger and so on.

Start and end every day by setting your mind on your goals. What you focus on will grow. It will seem fake at the beginning but with time your thoughts, actions and coincidences will fall within that new mindset you created yourself; it is guaranteed.

I choose Peace, Abundance, Health and Prosperity among other more detailed things-

Peace

Let's just completely ignore the fact that you followed up a quote about the theory of evolution with problems with the big bang theory (which are about as related as Bitcoins are to sewing machines), there's a giant chasm of misunderstanding between:

"we still don't have the math quite right" and:

"well obviously your theory is incorrect, therefore my theory of a giant sky fairy did it is correct" *whizzes off in motorized wheelchair*

Not that I firmly believe we're not still in some huge mess of economic troubles, but come on... the notion that the overwhelming number of dumbshits who disbelieve our best working theories of abiogenesis and the origin of the universe - not because they understand them well and find them fundamentally flawed, but purely because it disagrees with their chosen superstition which is superior to all other superstitions on the planet - are somehow intellectually superior. There's just no words to describe that level of group stupidity.

Technical analysis is pure rationalism, and only works so long as people choose to believe they must act according to it. What was once the highest comfortable "hold" position for a given individual is not necessarily always the same number, and depends on not just the specific situation of that individual, but the state of the entire economy at that time. This idea that there are "support positions" that remain constant over extended periods - and that if broken will lead to massive sell-off - just does not make sense. It is more likely that the pervasive belief in technical analysis *causes* massive sell-off at claimed "support positions", rather than vice versa. If people are told that a major sell-off is going to occur at $X, they are going to setup triggers to sell at that point, inadvertently causing the sell-off.

But I guess this is off-topic. :P

lol, love it! Thread nearly derailed!

Yup, the very difficult quantum maths is not perfect, so the "space daddy" theory of everything MUST be right! As Einstein said, two things for sure, the infinity nature of the universe and of human stupidity, and there are doubts about the former.

I admire your drive and tolerance. This is how all self respecting human being should apply themselves in real life. We must all set our mind to something and start building the world we want to live in on shoulders of our own instead of sitting and waiting for things to change.