Bitcoin Forum

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-11-07/bitcoin-etfs-are-likely-to-follow-futures-cboe-president-says


The guy interviewed in that video in the link is apparently an ETF expert, whatever that means. But he says he thinks Bitcoin ETF's should follow about 6 months after the futures market starts up, so by summer 2018. Said he thinks an ETF could get $10 billion after the first couple months. So we're talking about ETFs coming in and taking maybe half a million bitcoin off the table. That'd be HUGE!

With the new futures trading at LedgerX and the Chicago Mercantile Exchange, an ETF will indeed be just a question of time.
I could imagine an ETF getting approved end of 2018, beginning of 2019!
Then things will get really interesting!!!

I'm not massively up on this.

What is it about functioning futures markets that makes an ETF that much more likely? Because the normal markets are just as muddy and impossible to police as when the SEC disposed of the idea last time.

Even if they really, really wanted to approve an ETF there was simply no way they could do the job they're appointed to do.

Well I don't know but people in the financial industry seem to think futures will lead to ETF, so I'll trust them on that. It might just be the fact that futures will confirm bitcoin as a new legit asset for investors rather than just some weird internet thing that seems suspect to people in the traditional financial industry.

I think we are still very far from an ETF, if ever. The SEC said that they would not support an ETF because "bitcoin cannot be regulated". This is of course an irreconcilable position. In which point bitcoin will be "regulated enough" so that the SEC will approve for an ETF? it's ridiculous. If bitcoin becomes regulated enough for an ETF to happen, bitcoin failed.

So no, I don't expect an ETF to ever happen, unless the SEC adjusts their idea of what regulating bitcoin is. If they mean exchanges then maybe, but at a protocol level nothing can be regulated.

There's more to it than that but I can't figure out what it is. I've read in multiple places elsewhere that futures markets are what will enable ETFs, but I don't know what it is about them that magically assuages the SEC's doubts and magically magnifies abilities they're unable to execute currently. No one could give me a convincing answer.

I agree that SEC is reluctant to assigning and ETF to track bitcoin, but I also believe that in the near future (2 years from now) the bitcoin society has evolved in such a manner that there might appear a more "regulated" exchange. I am not sure that regulating bitcoin would mean failed, the major population does not care about anonymity...

When they say regulation they definitely mean regulation of exchanges. You can't regulate an asset, that doesn't have any meaning. You regulate the exchange of the asset by regulating the exchanges.

OP, let's wait and see. I was initially excited about the news on a Bitcoin futures market, but is it what Bitcoin really needs now? Yes, it might cause another fast price climb going to $10,000. But I believe it is too much and too soon. We need to relax.

I believe they will do this after 2019 not earlier then 2019. They need a more stable chart and this will happen only after 2019.
But if they do this in 2018 i will not refuse and i will jump all in .

I read some articles about Bitcoin ETF and yup, as you said above, many analysts predict that it won't be any ETF for Bitcoin before 2018 (the sooner will be 1st quarter of 2019)

Sooner or later - Bitcoin ETF is a good sign for boosting the trading volumes in long-term  :)

I don't want to be pessimistic but i think SEC will also regulate this kind of transactions. It is TAXABLE. and again, i do not think bitcoin users will use ETF for transaction, it is better to convert it to fiat and pay the merchant using cash, ETF-Bitcoin seems unfeasible to me.

That is correct. The argument given by the SEC so far is that they cannot allow an ETF on an unregulated underlying. That argument will fly out of the window if you have Bitcoin futures which are regulated. You can then have an ETF based on Bitcoin futures.

That's quite an interesting thought actually.

Nonetheless it would be kind of funny if a Bitcoin ETF still gets denied after a Bitcoin futures ETF has been approved. But I guess even the SEC would see the stupidity in that.

You really have the right last, but strangely enough, I'm worried about all this. I'm worried about the state and stability of Bitcoin in the future, so what will happen next year we have yet to see.

Yes, but if the SEC decides to regulate the whole cryptocurrencies then it all will go to the hell, it is probably going to be listed on the etf's list in a few months from now, but i dont think that it is going to be by the beggininf of 2018, or not even in summer.
We only have to wait until it happen, but it is not going to be soon.. But it would be very nice, i can just imagine a bitcoin who is worth more than 15 thousand dollars, omg, that is crazy.

There are a lot of possibilities guys, i dont know why you all are talking about this like if it is go happen soon, everybody knows that they will consider bitcoin as an etf in more than months from now, there is no way that it can happen in a few weeks, not even in this summer, because it is still too soon..
But if it happens, then bitcoin will go up like a skyrocket, and i am sure about that because i can feel it, all those who have never trusted in bitcoin will start tu put all their funds and trust into it.

Well next summer is far away. That's over a half year away. A lot can happen in the that time, especially since Bitcoin will be entering the traditional investor market through futures contracts next month. ETF may or may not happen in the next 6 months, but people in the financial industry are starting to say it could happen since futures contracts are starting now.

Actually it's all possible, because I once thought it was insane that someone for Bitcoin would pay $ 5,000, and today even $ 7,000. So, among the lovers of crypto currency, there are a lot of madmen.

It depends. I believe that there is a massive difference in who is actually applying for an ETF approval. If you can't provide anything the SEC considers to be a necessity for approval, which could be a certain level of fund insurance, there isn't any reason for them to do so. We however see that more and more regulations are starting to be implemented, which is something that might increase the chances of seeing an ETF actually get approved. Bitcoin's unregulated nature was the main reason to not let an ETF come through for the SEC. We're now further in that regard, so it's safe to say that ultimately, it's just a matter of time.

I had the same thing you know. I remember buying coins from 600 to 500 to even 220 dollar. Now it's many times more then then. Crazy right.
Now if the ETF succeeds this time, it depend if there is more regulation though, we could see the price grow enormously. To real crazy heights.

I think that bitcoin futures will definitely give bitcoin more legitimacy in the Wall Street/financial world, but I doubt that the futures will be enough for the SEC to approve an ETF if they're concerned about regulation.  Since futures are just a derivative, they don't add any regulation to bitcoin.