Bitcoin Forum

I'm a good trader. Usually I know when to sell and when to buy. I learned this the hard way, during more than 6-8 years of trading. I know to read the market indicators and I can have an educated guess on the price evolution.

But now I want YOUR opinion on this: each time the bitcoin price has gone up, it has increased 10-12 times (not more). The present price of the bitcoin is near this limit. Last time it increased up to 1100 USD (at the end of 2013), now we can expect that it will increase up to 10000-12000 USD.

 The market indicators that I am reading tell me that IT IS POSSIBLE that the price of bitcoin will increase up to 50k-100k, in 2 years from now.
So I ask you, what is your educated trader opinion on this: will the bitcoin price go down after 10k-12k and will follow another bubble in 2 years, or will the price of bitcoin continue to rise past 12k steadily.

 This is a tricky decisition to make, if I invest my November earnings in Bitcoin or not. Have a great day, and thank you for your help.

It's important to factor in the possibility of CME being allowed to step into this market, which will allow hundreds of millions in fresh money to enter. If things go through this year, people will regret not having bought at current levels. That being said, if they aren't allowed to offer Bitcoin tied future trading, we potentially might be up for another dump. However, all this is assuming that the market is anticipating on an approval. If that's not the case, and this market extends its bull run through a large part of the next year without anything being an actual driver, there is not much to say about the short term top. It might be $12,000 as you said, but it could also be $15,000 and maybe even close to $20,000. It's impossible to calculate your risks properly.

I can't seeing BTC getting up to 10k before the end of the year AND staying or going above.

I'm still the skeptic guy. It is possible to crank the numbers that high but we need to squeeze out at least $700 billion more to reach $50K for bitcoin alone, excluding the altcoin market and such. The gains should be insanely high for us to achieve that and few of the world's billionaires to help pump the price up. It's quite improbable just to think of it.


Institutional investors would really steer close once bitcoin futures have been setup properly. CME will set as the precedent for all and I really anticipate a pump since it is kind of bridging the gap between bitcoin and other deep pockets. Mid-December is helluva ride that's for sure.

Everytime there is a continues price increase, it was always associated with the word "bubble". Let's remove the bubble thing so that we can focus up on the realistic price that bitcoin can reached for a short period of time. Of course anything is possible even by lower chances but don't mind first those things that is considered as unrealisctic "as of the moment". Indicators can state what is possible but without the action it can't happened. Just imagined how much USD dollar must be injected in the market in order to achieved the maximum $100,000 in just 2 years. And on the way, a FUD can happened slowing down the progress.

As long as the price will continue to grow, I don't mind reaching those dream price not so soon as long as it "can" happened realistically.

The way I see it is that bitcoin has a definite trend upwards but not a steady one, most of those dips are brought about by relatively bad news and market insecurities but not by anything major. The last major downtrend was brought about by something comparable to a complete collapse with huge failures and massive amounts of funds going missing as well as regulatory crackdowns. I foresee that it will take something similar again to really stop bitcoin from its usual pattern which seems to be about a 2 week pump followed by a few days dump and then back to pumping again. Then the question you have to ask is how likely is something like this to happen and when will it happen? For me that's the impossible question, I suspect we will face a major hurdle again before reaching real highs such as 100k but I cannot say this with any real certainty or logic to support it, perhaps it is just a pessimists way of thinking of things.

Bitcoin is really unpredictable the price today was tocuh $8k but the price was drop again.. but i feel that the price of bitcoin will not touch in 10k value before end of this year.. and we are seeing price increases normally and its not a bubble price..
The price can be increase more if there is a good news can be happen about bitcoin..like miners fee  could be solve expect that before end of this year bitcoin will be getting ore price increase..

Well, I do have money in right now, though I'm not going to say that I think Bitcoin is going to be going up to 10-12k because I just can't think this is going to happen. That's an insane price point, and I don't think the traders can deceive people enough to the point where they're able to get Bitcoin to go up another 3000k - 5000k. That's an insane amount of money to be adding to an evergrowing commodity.

Plus that's not going to be good for Bitcoin, as more and more traders are going to be the reason for volatility while everyday people (who we want to join in Btc) are the people who are going to avoid BTC for this very volatility.

In present situation it is not possible to predict the exact value of Price. I think everyone of us know that Bitcoin price is an unpredictable job, but there are chances that the price of Bitcoin will reach to 10k mark.

I think cryptocurrency trading volume is kept increasing so there are chances that the price of Bitcoin is increasing.

i am not really hope to see Bitcoin to reach that point,
reaching $50.000~$100.000 is a good thing for us traders but at the same time if this continue Bitcoin will lose its value and become the bubble.
right now Bitcoin can not be considered as a bubble because the demand and the usability had lead it to this level.
compared to others,Bitcoin has a lot potential in the future because it's a new thing in our life.
with the technology everything would be instant so we need an easy thing to support us in our life just like it.
think about how much people will use it in the future and how many Bitcoin total supply?
reaching $50.000 is plausible but if we hit it 2 years later,i believe when the correction happen a lot of people will lose their interest.
because the correction would be huge and lead us to massive fud.

I agree with this, if the bitcoin futures market is in fact launched there is going to be a lot of new money entering in bitcoin, this will create a massive interest in bitcoin and that could make the price of bitcoin to keep going up for the rest of the year and maybe for even a longer amount of time, but if it does not happen there is a possibility we get a crash, so at the end OP it is your call, I’m not a trader but a holder so I know that I’m going to keep holding regardless of what happens.

By the way I have a hard time connecting your belief to your tittle it just that it doesn’t picture out what you think about bitcoin.. But anyways,, what matters most is the post itself.. I have the same opinion as you are that bitcoin future is so huge that even our own selves can’t figure it out to what should we do.. We ask for collective confidence by other members of the community we belong.. I’m a optimistic guy who always thinks about the good future of bitcoin price and for sure those numbers are possible without timeframe..

Thank you for your answer (the two answers above). Now I know what I will do.

Thank you also all people here that have made their opinion. This helped me a lot in making my decision, either we will have a long "bitcoin winter" of at least 10 years, either now (the next 2 years) is the time for a big "pump" up to 20k-50k or more.

As someone here was saying I am not a trader but a holder, and I cannot wait until I am 65 years old (now I am 49) to realize my dreams from bitcoin.
(I do have good "theoretical" tradding experience though).
 

if Bitcoin is a bubble i believe the price for this party to stop will not be around $10.000~$12.000 but instead around $50.000 more or less.
for now Bitcoin can not be considered as a bubble because many people still can afford to buy it,
the bubble mean something that overhyped by people and it's about the time to burst it out.
but Bitcoin yet to reach that point because it has a function and advantage compared to others.
at least right now Bitcoin will stay strong until some people or group take a lead.

Nobody knows what is going to happen mate, but we are in a giant bubble but nobody knows when it is exactly going to explode, the price is purely based on speculations and everytime that someones deposits money into bitcoin, that increases the whole price of it.
But if people keep joining it, the price will go up like it has always did, so the only moment in where we can see it going down is if the governments decide to shutdown bitcoin and spread a lot of fud in order to make people panic and sell all their bitcoins.

They (the govs) will not shut down bitcoin. Bitcoin is now working in all countries favor, is working towards improving the international commerce, the question is if I will have to wait until I'm an old man to visit Monte Carlo (I'm from a "poor" Eastern European country).

Exactly and this is the same sane reason why I believe that bitcoin would continue it's upward trend slowly but surely. This ain't like 2013 anymore where the pump has been manipulated, the current rise in price IMO is genuine but it is a bit overpriced and it is normal that in times, btc would have to correct but it won't dump big time. I can't imagine it happening easily with a constant stream of demands right now generated in Japan and other countries that have legalized btc.

Bitcoin will keep going up for a while, a lot of people, companies, countries, governments and organizations are now taking profit from bitcoin, nobody wants to see it going down, at least not for a while
We are stil making profit over it, why would they want to see it going down again?
Bitcoin is still on their best moments, it can raise a lot during the next few years if governments decide to keep increasing the price just like they have been doing it for more than months from now.

Some has misinterpreted the ongoing growth to be a bubble. In my opinion even if this is a bubble, the price won't stay within 10k-12k. The market prediction by experts is very big compared to the other assets. Recent days bitcoin cash seems to be gaining potential over bitcoin and the same won't sustain long.

No,even it may not fall after reaching $12,000 because the market situation now is entirely different from what it was earlier.Now,more countries are getting ready to legalize bitcoin which may increase its demand and price.Also,big financial firms like CME enter the bitcoin market triggering its price more.In fact,when CME announced releasing of bitcoin futures,its price started to grow but was affected by segwit2x problem and BCH getting pumped.So,bitcoin price is expected to increase more.So,bitcoin price may even continue to rise beyond that limit.

I think it will still continue to increase. I do not think that it should be consider as bubble. I think that it is a real increase in the price of bitcoin which is mostly because of the increasing number of bitcoin users, which is increasing the price of bitcoin. In future we can expect that bitcoin price will continue increasing and very hopefully that its price will cross 10000$ very soon.

I would not call it a bubble 100%,it does show some bubble like behaviour
but this "bubble" is bound to increase bitcoin's price continuously since the market saturation hasn't been reached
and the built in deflation mechanism and the limited supply makes it a rare commodity
analysts predict it go up to 100.000$ and more,also since there is a continuous demand for it,the price will  break the records time after time
if it goes to 10k we will see 12k and more most definitely

The bubble will stop only when all countries will have low against Bitcoin to kill it.

As of now, they let us make some money so we have to benefit of this opportunity

there is no bubble to want to stop or not and if by any chance there were any bubble, it has been burst multiple times when all these big drops happened. or maybe you missed the drop from $7800 to $5500 an back up again?

the market is not a computer game to predict the next movement by looking at the pattern the "boss" had in his previous attacks ;)

and i don't know where you get your 10-12 times from but in bitcoin the price is rising based on adoption and growth and that has not yet stopped, there are still "fresh money" coming in and that will continue to increase the price and expand the market.

no it won't happen like this, the 2013 rise was a fake manipulation with no real buy support but fake orders all coming from 1 exchange controlling 80% of the market.
now it is lots of exchanges each controlling nothing more than 10% of the market and lots of money coming from thousands of investors.

by the way 2013 rise was less than a 6x rise (still don't know where you got 10-12x from)

it will go up to 50K-100K and above but not because of what you said about the 12x rise thing and it won't be a bubble.

Last time i thought the whole thing was going to pop was back at when bitcoin was $2500 and it went down to $1800 because of a panic dump caused by people dumping the coin, and others having to liqudita etheir long positions as a result.

Then, BTC obviously recovered, went up to like $4000 or so, stabilized there, and now we're here.

I do think that btc is going to pop eventually, however whether $10-12k is going to be the figure, we'll see. It'll be similar to the 2013 bubble if it does, since it is around a 10-20x gain before popping from the start of the year.

My advice:

Look at log charts, not linear charts.

Monthly is the new weekly, and weekly is the new daily. So when comparing to 2013, use those comparisons.

The first low to high was $1 - $1200. That was a 1200x rise. This low was $150 and is now $8000 which is about a 53x rise - so far.

So your indicators about 50-100k in 2 years are probably correct. We are currently in a bubble - Id compare it to April 2013. But this bubble is much slower - because monthly is the new weekly. We haven't reached fomo on this stage yet, although you can see some classic indicators - like corrections ending swiftly (look at the one last week) and weekly candles expanding.  

If I had to guess, I'd take MasterLuc's projection of 15-25K on this fomo, with a second wave of fomo within 2 years that will extend us towards or over $100k.

I think it may reach over 12K$ without we realize the increase in this year is really sharp,but I'm a person who does not understand the way a billionaire injects funds into BTC they have a good idea in investing.The indicator also shows an increase 2 year's then but it all depends on investors inject fresh funds well this is a very difficult answer in my opinion,we must keep the price stability and from now dump must be there but don't far to half the price recovering this will is hard to do it I think.

As much as I have seen the market. This cryptocurrency market never really repeats the past moves. Also right now we are in transition phase with bitcoin becoming popular at global level. Tons of news are coming everyday globally including companies adopting bitcoin, countries banning or legalizing it, investor's increased interest, pumps and dumps etc. These news are highly running the market. User base have increased multiple times since last year. Speculating the market on the basis of past actions won't be justified today. I think Bitcoin will remain bullish in 2018 past the $12k level as well.

There's no assurance that it will be stock or stop at some price. Because there's always a posibility that bitcoin price will go up and down. We cannot tell nor predict what can happen next so let just enjoy what is the present status of it today.

Why not repeats? Bitcoin fell in price after each bifurcation. It seems to me that it is a pattern. If you take to analyse the short period that is really impossible to predict the behavior of bitcoin. But if you were to analyze a longer period for example 1 year you will see that in all races the bitcoin grows in value. This is a trend. The growth of popularity of bitcoin I think that the prices will continue to rise.

I am not here talking about the bullish trend. I am here talking about predicting the next big fall as stated in OP that it will go 12x as gone last time and will fall after $12k.

Regarding what you are saying, yes after every ATH, bitcoin goes a dip. This is way to normal, any newbie can tell that and also Bitcoin is bullish, yes some serious demand is there.

I was definitely not talking about these signals.

I am talking about some unexpected trends that we saw recently like altcoin market suffering a huge drop period which is kind a new in the market, never happened before. Such a great pump being done by forked coin(BCH). We are now looking at some new price driving factors. Thus, we simply can't rely on history of the market action.

Agree we cant predict when.it will pump.or dumps but still if there are any good news about bitcoin then that is the time that it will be pumping but we dont know if what is the exact price of bitcoin or how the pumping end . We can only speculate

Who says this is a bubble? There have been several fairly significant dumps for short periods over the last year. I don’t think this is a bubble at all, looks like genuine growth to me.

If this is true, then I owe you a beer, when the bitcoin price will attain 100k.

https://s18.postimg.org/yqqg1ovuh/bitcoin.png

Now I see what you are talking about. In my first post I was just asking if these 3 spikes from 2012, 2013 and 2014 will repeat themselves. Maybe I'll go to Bahamas not to MonteCarlo.

 :)

I personally don't consider this to be a bubble either, but looking at how the market has gone up more than 700% this year, I can somewhat understand why people consider it to be a bubble. Especially when it comes to those people who aren't exactly sure on how to look at the market, why it increased so much this year, what the impact is of more average people finding their way to this market, institutional capital (albeit on a very small scale), etc. Other than that, it's almost impossible to say where we'll find a short term top. People have been calling top even at the $3000 level this year, and the market kept rushing further. For that reason I am not going to call top anymore, because in a market like this, it holds no real value.

yes I believe also in that bitcoin is not a bubble ! there was no people behind this and bitcoin price was decided by the free market ! bitcoin market has been active for already years as long as the market become active there was no reason for it to dump and go back to $200 again

We are in a bubble. But the reason it doesn't feel like a bubble is that - as I said in the post above - monthly is the new weekly and weekly is the new daily. This is a long drawn out bubble. As BTC becomes less volatile as price rises it's bubbles smooth out. History IS repeating itself, just in slow motion.

What bubble, where do you get that idea from? I see no bubble.

bitcoin isnot a bubble because it have stable range of increase and decrease  so that you can’t say it is a bubble

it will never stop at 10,000$

First, you need to understand what is a bubble and why do you think Bitcoin is a bubble. A lot of personalities in finance are saying that Bitcoin is a bubble, but in the end, it seems that they are having a hard time to prove that Bitcoin is a bubble, do not compare Bitcoin with the dotcom boom, since those companies are different from Bitcoin. A lot of people are trying to prove Bitcoin is a bubble, but still they failed to do so.