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The speculators are always hovering in the shadows, same as in any market. They just don't have a lot to do at the moment; they are biding their time. Possibly. The timing of the next bitcoin boom or crash is anybody's guess.

No.

http://bitcoincharts.com/charts/chart.png?width=940&m=mtgoxUSD&SubmitButton=Draw&r=150&i=&c=1&s=2011-05-31&e=2011-07-31&Prev=&Next=&t=S&b=&a1=&m1=20&a2=&m2=10&x=1&i1=&i2=&i3=&i4=&v=0&cv=0&ps=0&l=0&p=0&

The price went to $2 after that. There is no stability in Bitcoin, it's only preparing for a massive move, and the longer and tighter it becomes, the sooner and more violent.

You guys are asking for trouble.

What makes you say that the speculators are gone? We're just not in the run-up to bubble anymore. Lots of speculators holding (......who will later capitulate).

They will buy on lower prices, not sell. Why sell lower when you could've sold higher?

Tell that to the people who sold at 20, 10, 5, 2 in 2011 on the long way down from 32.

The 10-30 segment of that runup was an obvious bubble so those who sold above $10, especially if they rebought later, look smart with hindsight.

But this isn't 2011 so we can't say the pattern will repeat itself exactly like that. When the April bubble popped, a low of 80% below the peak was already well tested. And $10 to $250 isn't the same as 50c to $30 in any case. 2011 was a pure bubble. Now, the situation on most counts is very different, including the market and the inflation rate. So drawing parallels to 2011 isn't a strong basis for a bear case.

A lot of the panic selling has already happened. If the price falls markedly over the next few weeks that'll be a good opportunity to buy, if one has spare fiat. And if people are short of spare fiat with which to buy bitcoin, then that would explain the falling prices. :) I've noticed a bit of coïncidence between price troughs and personal fiat shortages, and maybe it isn't generally just a coïncidence. If people don't have the cash to keep pumping in to buy, then the price needs to fall...

That's really easy to say in hindsight, isn't it?

Why would I sell at 100 when I could have sold at 260? Why would I sell at 50 when I could have sold at 100? Because I didn't sell, and I fear the price will go lower yet and I will lose even more value. Ergo, panic. That's the capitulation mindset... and you just assume it won't happen. That's fine, but if you're 100% BTC right now, I suggest rethinking that.

A lot of panic selling has happened, yes. Point still remains.

I agree with you here, many people that sell fear that the price will drop and bitcoin will become non-existant while others just hold on the longest they can until they can either make a profit or breakeven.

Will getting big investors really make btc increase in value or getting the general public to adopt bitcoin make it shoot up.

Yea I think the biggest crashed has already happened, only if the early adopters or bitcoin enthusiasts decide to cashout will it become a disaster. But then again was bitcoin really made to make people rich or to provide a way of moving money faster and a small cost.

There's also the bulls buying at a "cheap" price, realizing that it wasn't so cheap after all.

$260 ---> $100
"Woohoo! Cheap coins! I'll load the truck!"

$100 ---> $80
"Man, I wish I had some fiat left to buy and average down! I'm in for the long term anyway."

$80 ----> $70
"Er... this is weird... is there some bad news I should know?"

$70 ---> $60
"Ok, we are in a downtrend... if I sell now I can accumulate more coins for the future..."

I expect the price to stay in the ~90 - ~135 zone the next 4-5 months.  I only see it breaking out of this zone with major news (positive or negative).

Reasons:
- Interest in Bitcoin stays higher than in February and has stabilized at the mid-march level. See Google trends for "bitcoin" (http://www.google.com/trends/explore?q=bitcoin#q=bitcoin&date=today%2012-m&cmpt=q) and even more clearly for "buy bitcoins" and "sell bitcoins" (http://www.google.com/trends/explore?q=bitcoin#q=sell%20bitcoins%2C%20buy%20bitcoins&date=today%2012-m&cmpt=q) That means a relatively high influx of new Bitcoiners, but not enough to move price upwards. (Indicating stability)
- No major downward move after last bad news (Cease-and-desist letter, MtGox holding USD) (slightly bullish)
- New better exchanges about to come (BTC Global, Kraken), MtGox about to deliver new trading engne (slightly bullish)
- Price after the MtGox-Coinlab dip in the seventies never stood for a long time in the ~90 area. That indicates that speculators see this price as "cheap". (indicating stability)
- Oscillators indicate we are neither overbought nor oversold (indicating stability)
- On the other hand, we have no reasons for a major upward move. Not many good news last month. (slightly bearish)
- Bitstamp wall stays high and will make it difficult to surpass $130-$135. (slightly bearish)
- Finally: Almost equal distribution of bears and bulls in the forum. (indicating stability)

What makes you think there isn't high risk anymore?  With great risk comes great reward, as we have seen, but that pendulum can swing both ways.  We are still very much in a risky period.

Speculators gone? Pshh
Speculators never leave a financial market

This exactly! Sure panic already happened, but there are trades every day that may become overvalued and cause panic. There are hundreds of thousands of coins that were bought on the way down, and will be during the next panic. There will never be any shortage of panic sellers.

In utopias they do.

Maximum of 2011, has not been tested, a maximum of 2013 (50) was tested only once. Traders don`t have enough confidence in the growth without retesting the previous highs. The fact that we see the last 2 weeks is a major player in an attempt to go against the market (single spikes at the market price once every few days). Perhaps this is a major investor is trying to protect their investment (he does not want to wait a long time and wants to solve the ascending triangle break up). But we must realize that thousands and thousands of old coins lie unused, run the parser independently and see for yourself what is in blockchain.

https://github.com/znort987/blockparser

The word comes from the Greek: oὐ ("not") and τόπoς ("place") and means "no place".

So... never.

now that mtgox can operate in the US price should start to shoot up, no?

No, it should go down.