Bitcoin Forum

Look here:

http://store.avalon-asics.com/?product=avalon-asic-chips-10000

Avalon shop has some maintenance or so.

"We do however need to bring the site down within the next few hours to upgrade for trade-in orders. So if you are running into problems ordering chips and/or viewing orders please do not panic, we expect this update to finish by later tonight ( EST time. )"

Cool, funny way to take the site down.

Well has the desired effect, stops people from purchasing, right? ;)

with kncminer having  100 GH asics on the on the way --- Avalon  need to upgrade to V2

This and the higher price for the newer chips doesnt mean that the new tech is so superiour. The gh per $ isnt such a big difference.

Are you nuts? Avalon charges around $50 per gh bulk chip, KnC is potentially offering $17.50 per assembled gh!

Actually, if you do a group buy the going rate would be $35 for ~1gh.  Plus they can be overclocked to lessen the gap to knc..

Of course, and I'm honestly looking forward to what DIY talent exists. I think the cumulative DIY talent will trump most companies. I think it will save some companies as well!

To say there is a negligible difference was incorrect though.

Actually, avalon goes for around $30/ghs. Saturn is 3795$/200ghs wo vat e.g. $19/ghs per assambled unit.
But fact is that they dont have working asic yet and that many things can be off specs.

Avalon's chips are 282 Mh/s, BTC price was between 120 and 140 during bulk buys, plus shipping. I remember at the time to the UK it worked out to around $14 a chip. ($50 was wrong sorry, mental math)

I'm not including boards, heat sinks, power supply, casing, etc.

A complete Jupiter unit with revised specs comes to $17.50 per Gh fully assembled. These are reputedly minimum.

Both will have DIYers and nutty risk takers liquid cooling and maxing them out beyond stability. That will be fun to observe, but not participate in!

KNC is a game changer for $/gh. No doubt about that if they ship on time.

Bitfury is the one to watch.  Could wipe the floor with KNC, with low cost miners.  PCBs already in production. Depends if flooding the market with chips in good time is his plan.

It's not healthy for Bitfury, or KnC to wipe the floor with eachother, or BFL, or Avalon, all need eachother, as does Bitcoin. Without competition none will survive for long.

The big difference is the difficulty between the two investments.  Batch #1 chips should be arriving in the next few weeks.  The difficulty increase between those chips and sep/oct for knc may likely render knc's ROI to never.  That in my mind, makes the price difference well worth it.

Maybe, but it's an arms race, not a picnic.  I'm sure there are sufficient Avalon chips on pre-order to keep hashing power stable. But there will be winners for a while. But I doubt for long. ROI will drop like a stone for the more pricey investments.

28nm will profit long after 110nm, and that's without the amount of intermediaries involved in delivering chips, splitting chips, assembling chips, then delivering chips, especially as many of these intermediaries are relatively anonymous and producing untested products, such as 64 chip boards.

I hope it does work out for all, genuinely. I don't see this ASIC race as being profitable, as much as fun to part of, but I do fear some will have tears as they have saddled themselves with debt stupidly to play this game.

No doubt Yifu et al. are sitting pretty though, whatever the outcome, the stress has been worth it for BitSyncom...

Yeah actual production cost of one chip is well below $8 per chip (current price)...

cost something like a $1 per chip They sold about 1 million chips at about $14 each  . He nows has 13 million in the bank

why would he want to get batch 3 out ? -- just give customer there money back - and start working on V2 asic  or have a holiday!


If you buy the current Avalon asic today you be lucky is you have a working product by xmas - by then the difficulty may be 250 to 500  million
because every body will have shipped product - (including BFL)- hence you need a better asic ie low power and at least  50 GH per asic ( not 300 MH)

Avalon from GB cost is 0.087btc when btc were $120. That is $10,44 per chip. Later GB batches got it for chepaer price.
There was a period of first batches when btc were under $100.
Anyhow, I agree that we need more asic manufacures, what will compete with each other, lower the price and dev next generation. That would be good for them, miners and bitcoin itself.

Ok lets calculate:

Jupiter: $6995 + 19% VAT = $8324.05 = $20.81 per GH

Avalon: 782.1BTC for 10K Chips = $81338.4
Using burnin for assembly (he is a bit more expensive than others so i dont take psu and other things into account. There are assemblers that need nearly half ot that price only.)
10K Chips assembly is 50000€ = $65155
Total: $146493.4 = $51.948 per GH

Now see that the clockcap isnt at 282MHz but at 450MHz. Thats a overclocking capability up to 159.57% instead 100%.

With proper cooling possible. Means $32.554 per GH.

So by letting the chips run at normal 282Mhz the price per GH is 2.496 times higher. With overclocking its only 1.5643 times higher cost.

Then take into account that kncminers will come out months later after the avalon chip miners are running since a long time already. The difficulty is rising 10 to 25% each 2 weeks at the moment. That means each month is getting 22% to 55% higher difficulty.

What do you think will remain from the lower price once the kncminers are running? And you can be sure that kncminer is running into the same starting problems every miner creator ran into in the past. Means more waiting time.

I think its funny that the price difference for the GH are so near together between old and new tech. I now know why Asicminer and Avalon used the old techniques first.

In my opinion kncminer customers would have been better chosing a technique that is available faster. Time is one of the most crucial factors at the moment. Of course kncminer will use less power... but it will take time until the power cost will be a factor that has to be taken into account really.

Will KNC allow overclocking on hardware they have to guarantee?


Also, the above calculation doesn't take into account Bitfury, who are going for low-cost mass production (as announced yesterday). That could have a huge impact.

Avalon are supposedly shipping chips in two weeks (quantity unknown).  Burnin looks to be ready to ship the week after. "Production capability ~1000 modules per week".
So we should see a flood of Avalons end of July & August.
Difficulty will rocket.

does this boost the price up for avalon chips?

they will be asic chips in the market cheaper than avalon. even butterfly is cheaper, need more competitor's for sure

OC chips Vs normal chip NOT FAIR
Include the vat on the purchase of KNC and not include any costs for customs border. NOT FAIR
But forget the electric consumption by GHs.

For me the most important:
  10000 Avalon 2.82THs 780BTC $ 78,000   + or- 25KW
        11 Jupiter     4THs 770BTC  $ 77,000  + or- 11KW

41% more hashrate
66% less power
No production cost

Youre right, the other chips most probably can be overclocked too and some vat comes on top for sure. But i wonder if its possible in the same percentage area because of the higher power on the same space needed. That could lead to heat problems while overclocking.

But youre right. You can use the standard rates too to compare. But even then... wheres the advantage when kncminer delivers months later when the difficulty is much higher? In my opinion there will be no big difference then anymore. The time for roi will be the same for avalon chip miner like for kncminers that comes months later. If kncminer would be 1/5 or 1/10 of the price, but it isnt. So difficulty and time will kill the advantage.

Ok, over time the lower power usage is something good, but it takes a long time since the power usage is a factor.

But much guess is included... its only my believe. ;)

Why are the chips still out of order? They still work on the website?

Do not think they made ​​the order of all the chips this week. To order larger and more economical.
It would be a disgrace to those who paid in the first orders.

Assuming their deliver according to specs

Why should that matter?
I only can say that all batches that were ordered from the start april to may went to chips ordered on may 21. That was 5 weeks after zefirs first batch order.
All other batches that were ordered after that time went to Chips ordered fast. In hours.
That means for me that the order was sent to the foundry. And that the other batches were ordered so fast means to me that the foundry didnt start the creation till that time. So that new batches still could slip in because the foundry for sure will do it in one work. Thats simply more economically. Because its work to set up the machines to create the chips.

So im pretty sure that all batches will arrive at avalon at the same time. But maybe yifu will ship them one by one then. But i doubt that he will keep them back artificially.

if they do a 28nm asic thats gonna be a game changer.  I say this because they are skipping 45nm package. 

I'm just curious how much capital and resources is needed to make a chip package structure like this.

Depends. Gh/$/watt.

1 KNC 28nm = 20 Bitfury chips.

KNC are going for a high value,low volume. Bitfury low-cost mass market.

I'm sure the chips do not retain, can not mine such as AvalonBatch 2&3.

website still saying "out of stock". Strange way to do maintenance on a Wordpress website...

No. Obviously no manufacture will offer a guarantee through overclocking, it is there responsibility to give you a stable product. You f**k it up at your own risk!

$3-5 million for NRE.

From 10,000 overclocked Avalon chips you can get 4TH/s, good and stable (non overclocked 2,82TH/s).

And chips are priced in BTC - wait till BTC hits $30 to $50. Then the $/GH/s of Avalon chips will be waaaaay better :D

Do not forget if you OC any chip. Need more watts per chip. Also more watts for the cooling system.
We must have a 282Mhz chip has a stress if it runs at 400Mhz. Higher possibility of failure. +42% OC is much for air cooling.

Just think that your competitors do the same OC.
Bitfury 120 to 170                       12.7 $ / Ghs
BFL 25 to 35 50 to 71 etc. ..         35.2$ / Ghs
KNC 200 to 284 400 to 568           12.3$ / Ghs

Avalon 2820 to 4000                    19.5$ / Ghs Not counting the manufacture of miners
                                                35$  / Ghs If we value the manufacture of each avalon 4 modules at $ 2,000. 31*2000 = 62000+78000 = 140000/4000 = 35


I have not added in any device the liquid cooling system and new PSU + Watts needed.

                                              

Yes, but I'm assuming that BTC price will go down hard, to at least 50% of its actual price (so around $50), and that Avalon's chips are priced in BTC. From what Yifu said, they will "raise and fall" with BTC and won't change the price regardless of the exchange rate. If you consider a BTC/USD of $50, the $/GHs picture changes a lot.