Bitcoin Forum

Economy => Speculation => Topic started by: Viceroy on June 28, 2013, 07:57:28 PM



Title: Bitcoin will reach $10,000
Post by: Viceroy on June 28, 2013, 07:57:28 PM
Inspired by this thread https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=245802.0 I thought I'd try the scientific approach.


Before 2020 is my non-fact-based estimate.  What do you think?


Title: Re: Bitcoin will reach $10,000
Post by: chriswilmer on June 28, 2013, 08:00:41 PM
2020 is very reasonable in my opinion. I have no idea what 2030 or 2040 will bring... but I bet the stories of how I gave away 1 BTC casacius coins to friends will seem completely unbelievable.


Title: Re: Bitcoin will reach $10,000
Post by: vokain on June 28, 2013, 08:13:48 PM
but I bet the stories of how I gave away 1 BTC casacius coins to friends will seem completely unbelievable.
they will say, Does not compute :D

hopefully not "damn, should've kept that!"


Title: Re: Bitcoin will reach $10,000
Post by: molecular on June 28, 2013, 08:17:51 PM
the dollar will be replaced by some other currency before that happens.


Title: Re: Bitcoin will reach $10,000
Post by: zoinky on June 28, 2013, 08:53:04 PM
I've always seen 2017 as the golden year.


Title: Re: Bitcoin will reach $10,000
Post by: monkeybars on June 28, 2013, 09:59:24 PM
I've always seen 2017 as the golden year.

I agree with this in terms of adoption/usage. But the price won't hit the plateau until 2-5 years later.

Spring 2016 is my prediction for $10,000 USD/BTC.


Title: Re: Bitcoin will reach $10,000
Post by: vokain on June 30, 2013, 02:43:26 AM
Stop spreading this crap. Its not realistic, you fuggin troll.

it is if we choose not to use fiat-based currency any longer


Title: Re: Bitcoin will reach $10,000
Post by: ThatDGuy on June 30, 2013, 07:23:30 PM
Stop spreading this crap. Its not realistic, you fuggin troll.

it is if we choose not to use fiat-based currency any longer

Yup.  Bitcoin is a potential successor, or at least as a store of wealth and/or money transmitter.


Title: Re: Bitcoin will reach $10,000
Post by: Wagner2014 on June 30, 2013, 07:25:34 PM
We could reach $10 before $10,000...threads with titles like this make me bearish...


Title: Re: Bitcoin will reach $10,000
Post by: Viceroy on June 30, 2013, 09:05:30 PM
We could reach $10 before $10,000...threads with titles like this make me bearish...

You can choose to vote or not.  While certainly in no way scientific the results are fascinating to me.


Title: Re: Bitcoin will reach $10,000
Post by: JimboToronto on June 30, 2013, 09:10:37 PM
I bet the stories of how I gave away 1 BTC casacius coins to friends will seem completely unbelievable.

Kinda like 10,000BTC pizzas?


Title: Re: Bitcoin will reach $10,000
Post by: skilo on June 30, 2013, 09:11:47 PM
I don't really know what to say about this... lol

Um i guess if we have a dollar collapse it's possible but how exactly do you determine Bitcoins value without a fiat currency to compare it to?

If USD was to go away tomorrow how would you know how much a Bitcoin is worth?


Title: Re: Bitcoin will reach $10,000
Post by: Viceroy on June 30, 2013, 09:13:29 PM
Do you expect $USD to disappear in the next 30 years for some reason?  Or ever?



Title: Re: Bitcoin will reach $10,000
Post by: monkeybars on June 30, 2013, 09:17:00 PM
I don't really know what to say about this... lol

Um i guess if we have a dollar collapse it's possible but how exactly do you determine Bitcoins value without a fiat currency to compare it to?

If USD was to go away tomorrow how would you know how much a Bitcoin is worth?

There is no such thing as absolute value


Title: Re: Bitcoin will reach $10,000
Post by: JimboToronto on June 30, 2013, 09:21:07 PM
If USD was to go away tomorrow how would you know how much a Bitcoin is worth?
Euros, Yuan, gold, rubles?

I think the OP was referring to an increase in Bitcoin's value, not the dollar's collapse, although both are probably inevitable to some degree.


Title: Re: Bitcoin will reach $10,000
Post by: ThatDGuy on June 30, 2013, 09:22:17 PM
I bet the stories of how I gave away 1 BTC casacius coins to friends will seem completely unbelievable.

Kinda like 10,000BTC pizzas?

Bingo.  One of the metrics I'm watching now is the lowest price per BTC on a month-to-month basis.  Tracking it from 2011:

Google Spreadsheet with Monthly Lows Summary Data (https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0Au51XMwldjDodEhfaW5TbnZLa3E1X2I5aTdoYWctcnc&usp=sharing)

Interesting findings:
  • 23 of 29 months since the beginning of 2011 have seen an increase in the monthly low price
  • We are in the 16th consecutive month of an increased monthly low price.
  • The average change from one monthly low price in this time period to the next: +35.70%

I'm not saying past performance predicts future gains, but that is a pretty significant period of time.  I don't think +35.7% could realistically continue, but I'm sure if you asked me that question in 2012 I would have said the same thing, and in 2011, and so on.


Title: Re: Bitcoin will reach $10,000
Post by: Wekkel on June 30, 2013, 09:38:30 PM
Even at very moderate adoption numbers, the big surge would happen before 2020. The recent run up to $266 just spoiled us a little bit  :o  ::)


Title: Re: Bitcoin will reach $10,000
Post by: skilo on June 30, 2013, 09:39:11 PM
If USD was to go away tomorrow how would you know how much a Bitcoin is worth?
Euros, Yuan, gold, rubles?

I think the OP was referring to an increase in Bitcoin's value, not the dollar's collapse, although both are probably inevitable to some degree.

What if there was no more gold or silver or fiat money, How would you determine Bitcoins value then?


Title: Re: Bitcoin will reach $10,000
Post by: Silv0r on June 30, 2013, 10:07:00 PM
If USD was to go away tomorrow how would you know how much a Bitcoin is worth?
Euros, Yuan, gold, rubles?

I think the OP was referring to an increase in Bitcoin's value, not the dollar's collapse, although both are probably inevitable to some degree.

What if there was no more gold or silver or fiat money, How would you determine Bitcoins value then?

I think this won't happen. There can't be no gold or silver. ;) The only way is that one "person" holds all the gold i.e. together and won't share it.

Maybe Bitcoin will be an established currency but I don't think it will replace other currencies. Maybe the fiat like USD / EUR. But then you have a value between gold / silver / coins and Bitcoins :)

Greetings


Title: Re: Bitcoin will reach $10,000
Post by: ruletheworld on June 30, 2013, 10:12:37 PM
If USD was to go away tomorrow how would you know how much a Bitcoin is worth?
Euros, Yuan, gold, rubles?

I think the OP was referring to an increase in Bitcoin's value, not the dollar's collapse, although both are probably inevitable to some degree.

What if there was no more gold or silver or fiat money, How would you determine Bitcoins value then?
Very simply, it would be the sum total of all the goods and services produced in the economy divided by the total number of Bitcoins in circulation. That's how you determine the value of any currency, with certain complications of course for fiat/fractional reserve banking.
Of course we usually quote value of one currency relative to another. As long as the market has faith in a currency, it isn't dependent on value on another currency, even gold, fiat, etc.


Title: Re: Bitcoin will reach $10,000
Post by: molecular on July 01, 2013, 04:55:53 AM
If USD was to go away tomorrow how would you know how much a Bitcoin is worth?
Euros, Yuan, gold, rubles?

I think the OP was referring to an increase in Bitcoin's value, not the dollar's collapse, although both are probably inevitable to some degree.

What if there was no more gold or silver or fiat money, How would you determine Bitcoins value then?

Camels, salt, women, mobile phones, bread?


Title: Re: Bitcoin will reach $10,000
Post by: tokeweed on July 01, 2013, 12:27:32 PM
Inspired by this thread https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=245802.0 I thought I'd try the scientific approach.


Before 2020 is my non-fact-based estimate.  What do you think?

it could happen. but then, it could not.


Title: Re: Bitcoin will reach $10,000
Post by: mp420 on July 01, 2013, 12:53:22 PM
Never. My conclusion is that while Bitcoin is useful, it's not THAT useful. It won't be eternally cheaper than other payment solutions, and it has its hassles. While it has way to go, I think it's grossly overpriced at the moment; the "natural" value of Bitcoin should not be over $20. So, in order to be "naturally" valued $10,000 the adoption should grow five-thousand-fold. I think this is unlikely. Not impossible but very unlikely.

If this does indeed happen, I'm going to be filthy rich.


Title: Re: Bitcoin will reach $10,000
Post by: molecular on July 01, 2013, 05:40:35 PM
Never. My conclusion is that while Bitcoin is useful, it's not THAT useful. It won't be eternally cheaper than other payment solutions, and it has its hassles. While it has way to go, I think it's grossly overpriced at the moment; the "natural" value of Bitcoin should not be over $20. So, in order to be "naturally" valued $10,000 the adoption should grow five-thousand-fold. I think this is unlikely. Not impossible but very unlikely.

If this does indeed happen, I'm going to be filthy rich.

not necessarily:

https://i.imgur.com/pQXBtlDm.png (https://i.imgur.com/pQXBtlD.png)


Title: Re: Bitcoin will reach $10,000
Post by: ruletheworld on July 01, 2013, 11:40:59 PM
Never. My conclusion is that while Bitcoin is useful, it's not THAT useful. It won't be eternally cheaper than other payment solutions, and it has its hassles. While it has way to go, I think it's grossly overpriced at the moment; the "natural" value of Bitcoin should not be over $20. So, in order to be "naturally" valued $10,000 the adoption should grow five-thousand-fold. I think this is unlikely. Not impossible but very unlikely.

If this does indeed happen, I'm going to be filthy rich.
Where did you come up with the "natural" value of Bitcoin as $20?


Title: Re: Bitcoin will reach $10,000
Post by: mp420 on July 02, 2013, 04:52:07 AM
Never. My conclusion is that while Bitcoin is useful, it's not THAT useful. It won't be eternally cheaper than other payment solutions, and it has its hassles. While it has way to go, I think it's grossly overpriced at the moment; the "natural" value of Bitcoin should not be over $20. So, in order to be "naturally" valued $10,000 the adoption should grow five-thousand-fold. I think this is unlikely. Not impossible but very unlikely.

If this does indeed happen, I'm going to be filthy rich.
Where did you come up with the "natural" value of Bitcoin as $20?

Gut feeling based on comparing price to other adoption indicators (mainly number of transactions).


Title: Re: Bitcoin will reach $10,000
Post by: mp420 on July 02, 2013, 05:04:06 AM
Oh, and I thought "five-hundred-fold" but typed "five-thousand-fold", it appears.


Title: Re: Bitcoin will reach $10,000
Post by: hamiltino on July 02, 2013, 06:21:16 AM
Never. My conclusion is that while Bitcoin is useful, it's not THAT useful. It won't be eternally cheaper than other payment solutions, and it has its hassles. While it has way to go, I think it's grossly overpriced at the moment; the "natural" value of Bitcoin should not be over $20. So, in order to be "naturally" valued $10,000 the adoption should grow five-thousand-fold. I think this is unlikely. Not impossible but very unlikely.

If this does indeed happen, I'm going to be filthy rich.
Where did you come up with the "natural" value of Bitcoin as $20?

Gut feeling based on comparing price to other adoption indicators (mainly number of transactions).

Show me the maths.


Title: Re: Bitcoin will reach $10,000
Post by: Jaroslaw on July 02, 2013, 06:40:23 AM
wheres the moron who open this threat


Title: Re: Bitcoin will reach $10,000
Post by: Book on July 02, 2013, 06:46:22 AM
If USD was to go away tomorrow how would you know how much a Bitcoin is worth?
Euros, Yuan, gold, rubles?

I think the OP was referring to an increase in Bitcoin's value, not the dollar's collapse, although both are probably inevitable to some degree.

What if there was no more gold or silver or fiat money, How would you determine Bitcoins value then?
If every currency is wiped I guess people just determine on resources and objects. Most likely the same way the where when these currencies were around.


Title: Re: Bitcoin will reach $10,000
Post by: Viceroy on July 02, 2013, 11:58:09 AM
wheres the moron who open this threat

That would be me.   I threatened to drive btc to $10,000 with this thread.  I'm surprised how easy it was to support my position.  We are strong believers, huh?  That $260 made us hungry.



Title: Re: Bitcoin will reach $10,000
Post by: Jaroslaw on July 02, 2013, 12:07:35 PM
wheres the moron who open this threat

That would be me.   I threatened to drive btc to $10,000 with this thread.  I'm surprised how easy it was to support my position.  We are strong believers, huh?  That $260 made us hungry.



Make another one with bitcoin will reach $100 000 000


Title: Re: Bitcoin will reach $10,000
Post by: Viceroy on July 02, 2013, 12:27:13 PM
That would be CRAZY!  ;-)


Title: Re: Bitcoin will reach $10,000
Post by: monkeybars on July 02, 2013, 05:36:33 PM
wheres the moron who open this threat

That would be me.   I threatened to drive btc to $10,000 with this thread.  I'm surprised how easy it was to support my position.  We are strong believers, huh?  That $260 made us hungry.



Make another one with bitcoin will reach $100 000 000

Could happen but not until there are hundreds of billions of people in the economy. Talk to you in 2313


Title: Re: Bitcoin will reach $10,000
Post by: viboracecata on July 03, 2013, 03:15:40 AM
I just cared when it will get back to 110 again.

Dreamers always achieve dreams by dreaming?


Title: Re: Bitcoin will reach $10,000
Post by: Jozzaboy on July 03, 2013, 03:19:54 AM
wheres the moron who open this threat

That would be me.   I threatened to drive btc to $10,000 with this thread.  I'm surprised how easy it was to support my position.  We are strong believers, huh?  That $260 made us hungry.



Make another one with bitcoin will reach $100 000 000

1 BTC at 100mil? I don't know what I would do with the money really. Complete my fortress and fund a local senator enough to acquire military hardware defenses? 

I know! I'm build a bloody space station! :-\


Title: Re: Bitcoin will reach $10,000
Post by: just_me on July 03, 2013, 06:57:13 AM


Not likely. No reason to buy bitcoins if they are too expensive. There are plenty of other coins now that are much cheaper.


Title: Re: Bitcoin will reach $10,000
Post by: ruletheworld on July 03, 2013, 10:50:39 PM


Not likely. No reason to buy bitcoins if they are too expensive. There are plenty of other coins now that are much cheaper.
I hope you didn't use the same logic selling USD and buying Zimbabwean dollars because they were "cheap" - a billion of those for a USD!