Bitcoin Forum

Inspired by this thread https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=245802.0 I thought I'd try the scientific approach.


Before 2020 is my non-fact-based estimate.  What do you think?

2020 is very reasonable in my opinion. I have no idea what 2030 or 2040 will bring... but I bet the stories of how I gave away 1 BTC casacius coins to friends will seem completely unbelievable.

hopefully not "damn, should've kept that!"

the dollar will be replaced by some other currency before that happens.

I've always seen 2017 as the golden year.

I agree with this in terms of adoption/usage. But the price won't hit the plateau until 2-5 years later.

Spring 2016 is my prediction for $10,000 USD/BTC.

it is if we choose not to use fiat-based currency any longer

Yup.  Bitcoin is a potential successor, or at least as a store of wealth and/or money transmitter.

We could reach $10 before $10,000...threads with titles like this make me bearish...

You can choose to vote or not.  While certainly in no way scientific the results are fascinating to me.

Kinda like 10,000BTC pizzas?

I don't really know what to say about this... lol

Um i guess if we have a dollar collapse it's possible but how exactly do you determine Bitcoins value without a fiat currency to compare it to?

If USD was to go away tomorrow how would you know how much a Bitcoin is worth?

Do you expect $USD to disappear in the next 30 years for some reason?  Or ever?

There is no such thing as absolute value

Euros, Yuan, gold, rubles?

I think the OP was referring to an increase in Bitcoin's value, not the dollar's collapse, although both are probably inevitable to some degree.

Bingo.  One of the metrics I'm watching now is the lowest price per BTC on a month-to-month basis.  Tracking it from 2011:

Google Spreadsheet with Monthly Lows Summary Data (https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0Au51XMwldjDodEhfaW5TbnZLa3E1X2I5aTdoYWctcnc&usp=sharing)

Interesting findings:

• 23 of 29 months since the beginning of 2011 have seen an increase in the monthly low price
• We are in the 16th consecutive month of an increased monthly low price.
• The average change from one monthly low price in this time period to the next: +35.70%

I'm not saying past performance predicts future gains, but that is a pretty significant period of time.  I don't think +35.7% could realistically continue, but I'm sure if you asked me that question in 2012 I would have said the same thing, and in 2011, and so on.

Even at very moderate adoption numbers, the big surge would happen before 2020. The recent run up to $266 just spoiled us a little bit  :o  ::)

What if there was no more gold or silver or fiat money, How would you determine Bitcoins value then?

I think this won't happen. There can't be no gold or silver. ;) The only way is that one "person" holds all the gold i.e. together and won't share it.

Maybe Bitcoin will be an established currency but I don't think it will replace other currencies. Maybe the fiat like USD / EUR. But then you have a value between gold / silver / coins and Bitcoins :)

Greetings

Very simply, it would be the sum total of all the goods and services produced in the economy divided by the total number of Bitcoins in circulation. That's how you determine the value of any currency, with certain complications of course for fiat/fractional reserve banking.
Of course we usually quote value of one currency relative to another. As long as the market has faith in a currency, it isn't dependent on value on another currency, even gold, fiat, etc.

Camels, salt, women, mobile phones, bread?

it could happen. but then, it could not.

Never. My conclusion is that while Bitcoin is useful, it's not THAT useful. It won't be eternally cheaper than other payment solutions, and it has its hassles. While it has way to go, I think it's grossly overpriced at the moment; the "natural" value of Bitcoin should not be over $20. So, in order to be "naturally" valued $10,000 the adoption should grow five-thousand-fold. I think this is unlikely. Not impossible but very unlikely.

If this does indeed happen, I'm going to be filthy rich.

not necessarily:

https://i.imgur.com/pQXBtlDm.png (https://i.imgur.com/pQXBtlD.png)

Where did you come up with the "natural" value of Bitcoin as $20?

Gut feeling based on comparing price to other adoption indicators (mainly number of transactions).

Oh, and I thought "five-hundred-fold" but typed "five-thousand-fold", it appears.

Show me the maths.

wheres the moron who open this threat

If every currency is wiped I guess people just determine on resources and objects. Most likely the same way the where when these currencies were around.

That would be me.   I threatened to drive btc to $10,000 with this thread.  I'm surprised how easy it was to support my position.  We are strong believers, huh?  That $260 made us hungry.

Make another one with bitcoin will reach $100 000 000

That would be CRAZY!  ;-)

Could happen but not until there are hundreds of billions of people in the economy. Talk to you in 2313

I just cared when it will get back to 110 again.

Dreamers always achieve dreams by dreaming?

1 BTC at 100mil? I don't know what I would do with the money really. Complete my fortress and fund a local senator enough to acquire military hardware defenses? 

I know! I'm build a bloody space station! :-\

Not likely. No reason to buy bitcoins if they are too expensive. There are plenty of other coins now that are much cheaper.

I hope you didn't use the same logic selling USD and buying Zimbabwean dollars because they were "cheap" - a billion of those for a USD!