Bitcoin Forum

Look at the history of btc, shares whatever, they pretty much follow a steady long term growth rate.

However, there are always peaks and troughs on the way.

At the moment btc is way ahead of the long term trend and there is no way that this can be sustained based on historical correction. That doesn't mean it's going to happen now but it's very likely too soon.

I'm seeing an awful lot of similarity to when we approached $1000. Every one getting excited, almost everyone hyping the market and nobody wanting to miss the big $1k. And then we broke through that and we thought the sky is the limit. I think what followed was a sudden realisation that this was all on hype and not organic growth and as soon as it dips it snowballs as people want to make sure they get out while they are still in profit.

I might be wrong but I see the same thing happening here today, we are being drawn to $10k on excitement.

So I expect to see us smash through $10k perhaps even $11k or $12k followed by a big fall, maybe down to $2k if past performance is any guide.

Does anyone else see this?

It's difficult to use the past to predict the future with asset prices.

Since there's nothing really pegging down the price or any particularly strong fundamentals right now, the fact that the 2013 bubble peaked at $1000 is pretty much irrelevant to how it'll peak this time around.

It definitely seems likely that a correction will result in a massive crash though.

I think there's going to be a big adjustment in 2018. But I don't agree with the idea that it's going to crash or slide. The main reason is that the market is now quite different from what it was a few years ago. Now the market is very big money, in recent days, some of the big funds are already entering the market.

Any proof of this statement!!!

I personally feel that there will be a big drop in bitcoin at the time of the $10,000, because $10,000 is the price that many people are selling. So I think that's a top in the short term.

I don't think bitcoins will have limits it's doesn't have a number to reach every1 is waiting for it to reach 10k and sell it maybe this will make the bitcoin loose there value I spec that in long term it will go higher then this and more bitcoins will be circulated globally

what "past performance" is that? the always rising market where we see 30% corrections in worse case scenario which never even last longer than a month before price corrects back up to where it was before and continue rising?
that won't take us to $2k.

or maybe you saw the one time Mt Gox 500% pump within a month and think that can repeat?

It would be logical to have a correction of price at one point,this has always happened and it is likely to happen this time too.But it is difficult to predict when this bull run will stop,there are currently no indications that this will happen.I think we should not compared things from 2013 and this year,this is something quite different in every way.The number of users has increased several times,bitcoin has become popular and known to the wider audience and big players become investors.This price is just reflection of supply and demand in my opinion.

I am aware that 10k$ will be point where some people will sell,but I do not think we can slide down to 2000$, maybe in the worst scenario 5000$ would be the bottom line.

Always rising market - in the last two years.
There was a bubble in 2011 which was more significant than that.  There was two bubbles in 2013 that were worse than that.  In all markets there are periodically bull markets and bear markets.
Once again, there have been three periods lasting longer than a month, one of which lasted for two years.
Bubbles can occur, yes.

Bitcoin bull run continues until it reaches 25000 dollars in 2018 Bitcoin already and will exceed everybody expectations in coming months and break it owns All time high

No idea. Don't listen to anyone else who declares anything. Everyone winds up looking like a tosser.

Even old school traders are starting to get stirred - https://twitter.com/PeterLBrandt/status/934574285124812800

The most important factor is one that's not really talked about enough which is - discovery.

The more people learn and discover and want in the further back any proper fall is pushed. And discovery could continue for far longer than anyone expects.

Hi there coinycoiny! You got a lot of question and presumptions there. Let me answer first your main question in a simple answer there is a big chance to hit 10k before 2017 ends. Why? Because as what you said, based on historical data. Last year there is a 10% price increase form the month of November to December and if this same phenomenon happened the current 9k price plus a ten percent could conclude a 10k result. You are right about the frequent up and down swings of price. As you could notice in the market relative strength index when the price goes up the RSI signals an overbought market which then eventually followed by sudden price dumps. Most of the people will wish to make the price low so that they could buy again and sell when the price breakout again.  Hope I help a little.  ;)

yeah but that still doesn't mean we are going to see an 83% drop for no reason just because it has happened once before due to a 1-month-pump.

Those of you who don't think it could fall more than 30% go back and look at the history of bitcoin.

Last big fall was from $1200 to i think it was $187 or thereabouts.

Yes I know it more people are involved now but it could still fall by a similar percentage which is why I say it might fall to $2k.

I'm not saying it will but we are well above the normal rate of expansion today, just like we were when we hit $1k.

Just be prepared to loose that amount.

Of course holders will say hodl, but I say be ready to sell and buy back at a big discount!

Thats the logical assumption of bitcoin fate based on the historic data but what believe is the situation was different back then and now for the bitcoin.


Then:

Not much of the people were into bitcoin and it was very ambiguous currency and people had fear of loosing money over its investment. Most of the people did not know in what they are investing the money so they did not put much money into it. This grew the bitcoin market very very slowly and whenever there was situation of panic almost everyone left the market and hence the major drops in it.


Now:

More than billion people are into the bitcoin and everyone knows what bitcoin is. They know different strategies for it and they know very well how the market grows here. They know what decentralised currency means and how it can be manipulated by ourself. They have newer opportunities of using bitcoin, merchants, stock brokers, kids, everyone is into bitcoin.



So I’m pretty sure that this will change the scenario and it will only be unidirectional.

It's insane how nothing seems to make sense anymore. Everything that most of time times would more or less be a spot on analysis, did hold somewhat of a decent chunk of value before the current rush started, but now it's all garbage speculation/analysis, regardless of how much time and professionalism is being put into it. I used to exploit repetitive patterns in times the market was in a more active phase, but have stopped recently because of the fact that nothing works out anymore. I turned into a sole holder, which seems to be the safest side to be on in current times. Some times you need to admit that you can't beat the market, and this is definitely my way of admitting that.

I am not sure with this because I think there are many people which want to hold their bitcoin and I think they have their own goal price. and if the price is not reaching their goal price, they will not sell their bitcoin. but I see a big drop in bitcoin could happen because the correction price will always come after the higher price so we should be ready for this and don't get panic.

I was there for the 2013/14 bull run as well.

What I remember back then was there was no talk of bubbles at all. Everyone was convinced it was moon time. And of course it wasn't.

This time, plenty of people are talking about bubbles (including this thread). Which means we're not at the peak yet. They say bull markets climb a wall of worry. And it's only when the last bear capitulates and decides, heck it's going to the moon, that the market turns and falls. The opposite happens in a bear market - when the last bull capitulates and decides there will never be a recovery, is when the market turns up. This is what happened in 2016, when people were convinced the flippening would happen and Ether would take the crown.

I don't think we're at the peak just yet, simply because so many people are talking about the market falling.

I think it makes perfect sense. There's a tidal wave of new blood arriving every hour. Because of that predictions on past behaviour and predictions in general are pointless.

In quiet times of the past it was probably all the same exchange whales playing with the price. That's not the case any more. Current exchange movements could be a combination of the dawn of Wall St bumping into an army of rabid noobs or anything in between.

That's not going to make for steady charts. Many more diverse mindsets are going to be clashing on markets.

Solved...

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=470453.580

Considering verifiable information. A year ago there is a 10% cost increment frame the long stretch of November to December and if this same wonder happened the current 9k cost in addition to a 10% could close a 10k outcome. You are ideal about the successive here and there swings of cost. As you could see in the market relative quality list when the cost goes up the RSI signals an overbought showcase which at that point in the end took after by sudden value dumps.

Hahah so you are really saying that the price will fall to $2k again?

Let me tell you that it is almost impossible mate, because the market is not the same as it was on 2013 when it felt from $1000 to $300 in just a few hours.

There are more than 150 billion dollars invested in bitcoin right now, when the price was $1000, there were less than 15 billion, it means that there was much less people than now, and of course, less money in here.

People would not react by the same way as before, just because we know how can everything re-act if everybody decides to dump their coins.

And no, it would not happen, if you are so scared, then why dont you dump your coins?

Don't get market cap mixed up with real dollars. There's nowhere near 150 billion directly spent on it and there's no way you could extract 5-10% of that without the price collapsing to zero.

There are a lot of new people. They've also never really been put to the test like people post 2013 were. I don't think they can be depended on not to panic dump. There may well be serious money waiting on the sidelines to scoop it up. We shall see.

Just like there have been big adjustments in every other year. Bitcoin is unstable, but until this very second has only been going up on average.

Bitcoin has dropped that much in the past, for instance 2013 and earlier, but has matured a lot since then. I realize it's very risky to say "it's different now", but it is! Mt.Gox manipulation caused a huge uptrend followed by a hard crash. The recent very big attack from Bitcoin Cash only had a "small" ($2000 drop) and short (it was higher again in just days!) effect.

This isn't how market cap works: a market cap of X doesn't mean X has been invested.
The 24h volume is $4B now, while the market cap went up $9B in this time. And those $4B includes sales too, it's not just new dollars flowing in.

The rapid increase is no doubt alarming but don't expect like in the past (2013) because we can't predict by referring to the past situations and downfalls. Bitcoin has changed a lot with the passage of time during the past couple of years due to its community, the community has become much more stronger than before and there is a low chance that there would be a huge downfall like in 2013. Nobody can exactly predict the peak of this bull run, however i think we will have to face a dip after $10K.

I tend to agree about the upside, but $2k is overshooting the downside. We usually see price overshoot these big psychological targets. People have been aiming at $10k for years now, and I bet many will take profit there. It's only natural that these profit takers will get run over in a final blaze of glory, a blow off top, an eiffel tower....

So yes, my sights are set a few thousand dollars higher than $10k for that reason. Also, extrapolating based on the last two runs puts targets in the $12k-$14k range. You never know in this kind of market, though!

You have a point there, which indicates that everyone (including myself) is/was too much focused on how the market was performing before all this started, and based on that assumed that things would more or less remain the same, which isn't the case. This makes me even more confident about my decision to (at least temporarily) stop trading this market. I will however keep my selling point for this bull run at ~$9500 just in case a correction happens somewhere around the $10,000 level. If there will be no correction in the short term, then so be it.

I am also expecting that it will increment i think $10,000 to $12,000 and followed by a big fall but not $2,000 because that is way too low to imagine. Maybe a price correction will happen but it won't dropped that much. However, no matter what happen, we should still be ready to face if ever the value dropped in just a blink.

Spot on analysis in my opinion.

Long term growth is one of the most important guiding principles when it comes to bitcoin price appreciation. You pretty much know that bitcoin is goign to go up in the long term since it is naturally dis-inflationary and the inflation is controlled, compared to fiat inflation.

But, that doesn't mean that you're going to see a linear growth curve. It's going to boom and bust at certain points in the cycle. Right now we're in a boom, and once this boom is over there will be a bust. It could take us under $10k, but we'll see.

You know, friend, when today in the morning I saw the price of Bitcoin, I thought that the moment of a breakthrough happened. In my opinion, now it will rise only. Probably the peak of this run will be 10 thousand, and then the market will be stabilized for some time.