Bitcoin Forum

Dear all,

I just want inform everybody about an interesting (and simple) mathematical calculation I have done based upon the famous Pareto principle, which makes it possible to estimate how the 21 million bitcoins approximately will be distributed over the population in a future world dominated by bitcoin (i.e. everybody using it, which remains to be seen).

Here are the results of my calculation:

•   Wealth level 0: On average 0.0007 bitcoins (held by 6 billion people = the average person)
•   Wealth level 1: On average 0.0028 bitcoins (held by 1.2 billion people)
•   Wealth level 2: On average 0.011 bitcoins (held by 240 million people)
•   Wealth level 3: On average 0.045 bitcoins (held by 48 million people)
•   Wealth level 4: On average 0.18 bitcoins (held by 9.6 million people)
•   Wealth level 5: On average 0.72 bitcoins (held by 1.92 million people)
•   Wealth level 6: On average 2.9 bitcoins (held by 384 000 people)
•   Wealth level 7: On average 11 bitcoins (held by 76 800 people)
•   Wealth level 8: On average 46 bitcoins (held by 15 360 people)
•   Wealth level 9: On average 184 bitcoins (held by 3 072 people)
•   Wealth level 10: On average 734 bitcoins (held by 614 people)

Wealth level 10 turns out to approximately correspond to being a dollar billionaire in today's money!

If you want to know the details of how I calculated these results, please read my article at:

https://steemit.com/bitcoin/@mandrake7/calculating-the-number-of-bitcoins-required-to-reach-a-given-wealth-level-in-a-future-world-dominated-by-bitcoin (https://steemit.com/bitcoin/@mandrake7/calculating-the-number-of-bitcoins-required-to-reach-a-given-wealth-level-in-a-future-world-dominated-by-bitcoin)

and give me an upvote if you liked it :)

Please do not see this post as investment advice, you are yourself responsible for your investment decisions.

Do you have any details on what the wealth levels mean? You mentioned wealth level 10 would be a dollar billionaire, what about the other wealth levels? Without that it is pretty hard to consider. It would also be interesting to consider population growth, by the time 6bn people are using bitcoin the population will probably be 10bn+

If you read my article you will see that my calculation is conservative in many respects, and that one of these conservative assumptions is a constant population. In the article I also define the concept of wealth levels.

Regardless of what the picture will look like then this gives a good indication in where you are in terms of BTC hierarchy and in terms of how many people have adopted it. Even if you are in level 5 or below simpy because you are an early adopter you will prosper much faster than those who come in a little later. These numbers will be constantly evolving watch 1 BTC = Level 7-9 in the coming years mark my words  :P.

Yea, I think too this is true. You got to have a fiat system for the coins to have a value. How else would you meassure the crypto value or even invest? Maybe the value could come from comparison to other crypto-currencies. I really do not understand how all this would function. Would be cool if someone could explain, thx.

A very interesting thought experiment, while it is obvious that not all the people of the world will use bitcoin this still give to us a very interesting view of how much our lives can be changed if we just hold a few bitcoins, I do not have a lot of bitcoin but looking at your wealth levels I will be in a good shape in the future.

I meant in terms of how it would translate to todays wealth as you mentioned 10 would be roughly a billionaire. Just for my own interest as it gives me an idea what to aim for  ;D It would be very difficult to consider without a constant population but is one of the key flaws, still for something as a kind of loose reference point and to help people understand what their bitcoins could be it is a nice project :)

I like your idea. I have thought about similar calculation. I see one flaw instantly, though. Actually, two.
1) It is impossible 100% of a group so large to do the same thing. Except for breathing oxygen. 50% sounds much more realistic.
2) Your demographics are wrong. You have calculated for 7.5billion people. By the time 50% (or 100% in your calculations) of the people use Bitcoin, the population will be something like 8.5 or 9 billion people. 

Interesting calculations, but this is just assumption. Is there any real stats how many people in the world do have bitcoins and ethers?
Because , now we are calculating based on today's price, but its different that yesterday - 15% - down..  We can predict tomorrow.