Bitcoin Forum

I remember the saying Buy when there is blood in the streets, even if it is your own blood. But I reckon the opposite might be also true. Could this be the best time for us to sell?

In any case, if bitcoin was not going up this fast, I would be more comfortable to hold more.

http://bxbcoins.com/rothschild.png

Bitcoin has gone “parabolic,” says trader   Veteran trader Art Cashin says bitcoin has gone “parabolic"  
4 Hours Ago | 00:49
Bitcoin has reached "parabolic" levels, and the cryptocurrency has some at the Federal Reserve worried, closely followed trader Art Cashin told CNBC on Monday.

The cryptocurrency surged to a record $9,732.76 on Monday, according to coin industry site CoinDesk, breaking a mark set during Thanksgiving weekend. It later retreated to around $9,655 at midmorning.

"Bitcoin has gone parabolic, so that usually doesn't end well," said Cashin, UBS director of floor operations at the New York Stock Exchange.

"I think we're in the fear-of-missing-out phase now," Cashin said in an interview on "Squawk on the Street." "I think initially there was some concern. I am told — and take this with a huge grain of salt — that the movement is even beginning to worry some people in the Federal Reserve."

Read the full article https://www.cnbc.com/2017/11/27/bitcoin-is-parabolic-and-that-usually-doesnt-end-well-art-cashin.html

Yeah, it does not work well generally, but this is Bitcoin, a digital currency limited to 16 million of them out of which a few million are probably lost.

All of these 'veteran traders' will be eating their own in a couple years when they see Bitcoin over and above their smooth predictions. oh wait, they probably are already eating it right now if they did not get a chance to get into the game while they had a chance.

Art needs to look at a log graph of BTC...

I share your concern.  The upward movement is accelerating.


Zooming out to look at the last year or two, the chart is indeed looking parabolic in nature.  But I still don't feel like we've quite reach an actual blow-off stage in the current cycle yet.  We've had some times of crazy upward movement, but there hasn't been anything insane yet, like shooting up $2000 in a single day.  Maybe that won't happen before we have another significant downturn.  But, for example, if you look back to the runup at the end of 2013, it went from about $200 to ~$1100 in less than 4 weeks.  In percentage terms, we haven't seen anything like that yet.

The quote from Baron Rotschild is about another situation in a market.When there is "blood on the streets" all the asset prices go down and all the assets became undervalued,so it`s the best time to buy.The situation around the bitcoin market is completely different and it looks more like a bubble.The real question is:"Is bitcoin undervalued or it is overvalued?"I`m sure that a price correction will appear somewhere around 15th December,but everything will be OK,and btc will hit 10K after Christmass.

I followed Baron Rothschilds advice and bought when there was blood in the streets during the GFC.  It took my portfolio 8 years to rebound.  I dont think it was the best call. 

It is something that is much expected and there is something that comes with massive adoption when we see a lot of investors trying to get in on the train so they do not miss out.

We cannot doubt the fact that bitcoin is catching the interests of a lot of investors, most holders are still trying to hold so much looking at the way things have been going and then we will just have to see the value increasing the more and if those at the Federal Reserves are worried, they should better just take their chances now.

We have not seen the start of parabolic yet. Art can resume his 'parabolic' talk if we hit $25k this December.

How can you compare BTC back then with now ? Bitcoin marketscap is much larger now. It is not so easy to go x5 in 4 weeks now.

Even in LOG chart we start to go parabolic now!
Another blow-off top scenario like we saw 2-3 times in the past seems likely at the moment.
Question is where this top will be. Could be something between $15k-$25k. Extremely wide range.

Yes, if it does reach it by then. The price seems to be accelerating in an unprecedented pace. $25k by December can be easily achieve if we breach $11k mark today or tomorrow.

If I remember correctly, all the previous crashes were at around 20-30%, so it would mean that Bitcoin will crash to roughly $7,000 if it happened today, and I would be totally fine with that price. But what really scares me is the repetition of 2013-2014 pattern - 80% crash for a long term with strong price suppression. But the market is more mature now, so if the crash will happen, it probably won't be that bad, at least not for long. Essentially, we are all in uncharted territory now - Bitcoin is not a stock or a commodity or a fiat currency - it's a radically new type of thing, so no one can really tell for sure where the price will be in the near future, even the best analysts.

"Fear of missing out"

I think this sums up the current feeling in bitcoin investors. I've actually been approached by multiple friends asking me for advice on how to get a head start on investing in bitcoin even though this pump is now very very extensive in time and dollar amount.

I doubt it'll be a good time to buy, but overall i'm still bullish in the long term. We've only achieved part of bitcoin's potential and we're already here.

The rally has definitely gone parabolic at this point. It's risky as hell to enter now. Having said that, I have two thoughts... First, we haven't gone vertical on the weekly log chart. I could see the next weekly candles wicking to $20,000 or higher before a blow off top occurs.

Second, Masterluc keeps being correct, and I hate betting against him. Last I heard, we were going "to $20k on the corpses of bears." Probably so.

I need to see a real top formation on the weekly charts before I can start shorting this beast!

It doesn't hurt to take profits from time to time. Keep the bulk of your holdings, sell a little along the way and you are good regardless what happens.

I remember the dotcom boom very well - and there was this fund manager who was adamant that the whole thing was a gigantic bubble, So he started moving out of the tech sector in 1998. But of course the market continued to climb and because he had no tech in his fund, it was underperforming the market. He then got sacked in 2000. And just after that, the market turned into a bear and fell.

So the point where people start believing it can NEVER go down is the top.

Downturns are normal but from the way I have been looking at things, this may be the time we have all been trying to look at when there would be some high level of FOMOs stepping in and then seeing some huge level of mass adoption trying to catch in on the little they can before it is too late. I believe we have not seen anything yet though and bitcoin has really not seen that moment yet, but it is getting close.

Art obviously doesn't know how to read a log chart, or doesn't care.

On a log chart, Bitcoin doesn't currently look parabolic. $50k/btc within 3-5 months from now would be parabolic. I don't see that happening. And if it did, I would be agreeing with Art then.

This. We needed to land past 50k in <6 months.

Log charts shows really nice linear growth :)

Only traders should be worried about such a thing, I do not care if bitcoin crashes and we wee low prices again, I'm not going to sell, I know very well at what price I want to sell and until that is not reached I'm not going to touch my bitcoin, so all this talk about the form bitcoin is reaching is of no concern to me and to many people around the forum, if you want to make money with bitcoin just hold and forget about selling below your target goal.

It absolutely looks parabolic on the weekly log chart. A parabolic structure isn't just the vertical (blow off) top, it's the entire run-up. The curve into vertical ascension is unmistakable at this point. We haven't gone vertical on the weekly yet, but we're likely only to get one or three candle closes at that point before the blow off occurs.


The difference between $10k and $20k is a matter of days at this point, literally. At this rate, we'll get to $50k much, much faster than 3-5 months. I suspect this rally will break down before we get to that point, though.

In fact, It doesn't end at all.   ;)

Welcome to bitcoin Art. You obviously have not seen this before like we have.

It’s like saying that ‘the Internet reaches 100,000 users and is going parabolic, it’s going to crash’  :o
Or ‘there are over 1,000 gas stations now and it’s going parabolic; the car industry is going to crash’.

Except for the fact that neither of them can be held by individuals in a speculative way like bitcoin can, bitcoin being limited lends itself to mass hoarders similarly to say oil where the gulf states hoard their oil and sell it at a price higher than the free market would dictate.

Such predictions can miss lead the community because no one can really speculate what will happen next and no one exactly knows if bitcoin is under estimated or over estimated at the moment with the recent events .

Some consider that over 900% of growth in a single year took all bitcoin's breath and it won't grow any further , other consider that this is just a warm up and that by the end of 2020 it'll probably hit 1 million dollar and it's pretty much a matter of perspective and futurist look to either sell or buy from now on .

But i don't see anything looking alike a "parabolic trajectory" for bitcoin's growth  , it's more of a linear growth with little drop backs that aren't usually drastic . And in my opinion the only thing that could get us to that second part after the peak of each parabolic chart is a huge increase of electricity fees all over the world that'll eventually make bitcoin's industry a non so profitable one , and even with that bitcoin enthusiasts will certainly sort out solutions ;) .

The journey ain't ending any time soon !

Yeah for sure when there is a decrease in the price or any issues regarding bitcoin which upon analysis is the main reason why its price is falling down then definitely they take the opportunity to buy bitcoin. Because you know that bitcoin will strive in any adversity it will face because the potential of bitcoin as a future currency in the world is strong.

Right. I am not concerned though and I am expecting that there would be a correction.
However, we cannot really say much for now as most people and traders are thinking alike. Should I sell ? Should I buy ?

Is there going to be a correction? And moments like this can really be crazy which is making so many people to hold and then with the demand from FOMOs, it may really end up more than we actually expect for now.