Bitcoin Forum

Reference to chicken little there...

Anyway I figure people are now able to cash out of Gox?

Not a big move yet I guess, but what do you guys think is gonna happen?

I'm scared this will turn into a full blown panic...

Price hasn't been going up for a while now

the fact that you're getting scared, most likely others are getting scared too. full blown panic is just around the corner. sell now and buy back later, btc won't go away.

hrmmm... well I'm already sold out..

What I'm really scared about is missing the bottom, lol

That or buying in too high.

Seems to be a definite downward trend, and I want to capitalise on it... Long term BTC will bounce back for sure, but I don't want to be one of those suckers who bought in at 260, and are stuck holding their half priced BTC.

Who knows what the real value is atm, personally I think there's a lot out there to push the price down. BTC isn't exciting anymore, and if I was an ASIC miner (which I will be as soon as BFL finally delivers my order) I'd like to see some fiat for my mining efforts.

what's gonna happen is people might panic driving btc lower.

I think everyone is waiting for american normies to wake up in the morning and check the BTC. Reaction imminent.

Ah well... whatever happens, this is what I'll be doing

Bitcoin Surfing

http://imageupper.com/s03/1/1/J13726816981882292_1.jpg

You saw it here first.

knowing what to do whatever happens. that's a start.

While bitcoins were climbing SLOWLY from a few dollars to around $25 US, everything was great. I expected to have to wait for two to three years for them to reach $100. After bitcoins skyrocketed from the mid twenties to over $250, I couldn't believe the rapid growth in vaalue.

Then came the fall to around $60, and I felt sick. The price came back, and climbed to over $150 again. Once again, all was good.

Then came the SLOW decent. Each week the price seems to drop a little more. So if you compare the value today to $260, it appears to be in a rapid downward trend. However, if you consider the value on January 1st, 2013, today's value is 400% to %500 what it was just six months ago! That is still awesome growth.

Even it the value drops to $50 by December 31st, 2013, it would still be over %100 return in a year. A great profit compared to almost anything else you could have invested in this year.

It was nice to see the value go up each day, or hour. And it hurts to see the value gradually decay. Sometimes I thing the best thing to do is just ignore the price, and sit back and wait, expecting gains over the long run.

the price push down today is clearly a manipulation lol..   but it's ok.. i got me bids on the good spots :)

The whole market is a manipulation, since bitcoins is a bubble ...
Nobody in the real world gives any credits to that "currency".

I agree with you, but I would't say you even need to ignore the price due to your feelings of confidence, rather justify them by looking at a different set of metrics.  One I've been tracking recently is the lowest $ price per BTC per month, since 2011.

Google Spreadsheet with Monthly Lows Summary Data (https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0Au51XMwldjDodEhfaW5TbnZLa3E1X2I5aTdoYWctcnc&usp=sharing)

Interesting findings:

• 23 of 29 months since the beginning of 2011 have seen an increase in the monthly low price
• We are in the 16th consecutive month of an increased monthly low price.
• The average change from one monthly low price in this time period to the next: +35.70%

Short term, yeah if you want to make some money on the ups and downs, have at it.  Long term, though, I'm not too concerned with the daily value when the absolute lowest point every month is going up by +35% over the past two years.

Well I'm gonna call it. I think from this point on sustained triple digits are a thing of the past... At least for 2-3 weeks (or many bitcoin world months)

What happened in Cyprus around March was that many people saw the value of a decentralized currency. They saw how it could personally benefit them. They began buying it, not because they were speculating but because they had a need for it. This started driving up the price and, unfortunately, speculators saw this and got in too. There was a lot of upward momentum at this time but the real problems came when Mt. Gox, the majority Bitcoin exchange couldn't handle the load of all this new interest. All of a sudden, that momentum was lost and people began to fear that maybe Bitcoin wasn't ready for the world. All of the problems with regulators lately are only exacerbating the issues with Bitcoin.

When the current problems with Bitcoin are worked out only then you will see the true value go up, and it will go up a lot. Until then, you will see wild price swings like we see today where speculators get in, get scared, and get out.

50$ my old friend, we meet again

While I partially agree with the latter part, the value going up again will have the speculators along with it - and likely in larger numbers both of speculators and fiat thrown in.  Speculation isn't an "unfortunate" aspect of the Bitcoin economy - it is a naturally occurring and important aspect that is just one more way to bring attention to it.

I would suspect most speculators are not so much getting out right now, as they are just on the sidelines waiting until there is money to be made again. 

There are a lot more people paying attention to BTC now, compared to before the 4/2013 bubble, just like there were more then than there were for the 5/2011 bubble.  This forum itself had 83,400 members by the end of 2/2013, and March/April/May/June increased that user count to 134,300.  A 61% increase in registered users is pretty significant.

The next bubble could very likely push the value higher by an order of magnitude.

That's why the price topped out at 266 instead of 32. It's already priced in. The underlying psychology is the same.

I'm not convinced that Cypriot money in March caused much of the price increase.

They wanted bitcoins as much as plants crave Brawndo.

...but it's got electrolytes.  Plants love electrolytes!

Personally, I don't see it because if I've got a lot of money and I'm it's imminently going to be ceased I'm not going to risk my already risk prone money on a risky crypto currency that I've never heard of before.

I'd need to research and in that research I'd find so much info on scams that I'd need to find out which companies are reliable/honest.

All this takes time and time is not something I'd have.

I'd likely have a business to run, assets to decide to liquidate or not, new home to find, etc.

If I had small volumes of money I'd need to assess which risk I like more - not something that smaller investors a likely to want to deal with in amongst the turmoil.

The problem is too many people use Bitcoin just to churn out more Dollars.

Too many speculators, manipulators and centralisation in the form of ASICs.

If you want to help the price go up don't sell them for Fiat go out and spend them. Put the Bitcoin.org logo and site on your dollar bills to help spread the word.

Demand to pay in Bitcoin in every restaurant and pub you go to. Answer their questions, tell them it's not controlled by any bank or government. Tell them it's like sending money with email and we all remember what email did to the post office.

Get your friends to go back to that same merchant over the coming weeks. If they see it hitting their bottom lines they might get curious.

This would only be true if your merchant didn't cash out to USD at time of sale.

Good point, ask them first. I still think it's marginally better than just sitting in front of a chart buying and selling, although you could argue that it's not putting as much drain on the blockchain  :)

Then again spending the coins helps to set social norms.

The price will keep falling...

3600X365/12000000=11.34% = Inflation.. and seems most people are still in the waiting position to buying BTC...

The possibility of government intervention in the future and currently the limiting withdraw of USD in MT.Gox ,are decreasing the investor's confidence.  

This.

I think we should have a pamphlet made, that people can print out and hand to the manager at every restaurant and shop they go to.

It should briefly describe what bitcoin is, why they should accept it and how they can go about accepting it.

Why hasn't the Bitcoin Foundation done this yet? (or have they and I don't know about it?)

Because that would make Bitcoin looks even more like a religion.

I think that's a good idea. I need a stamp. Anyone got one or know who can create one?

You forget Silk Road, don't make that mistake!
It is the best form of money for it's users...though they will happily make their trades even if it drops below 1$ ;)

Be glad you will be able to buy in cheaply. My fantasy is that it goes back to $0.01/BTC and I buy BTC10,000 and it then goes up back to $100/BTC. Won't happen of course (the first part). But I will gladly buy from all the panic sellers when I have the fiat.  ;D

The guy who runs Mad Bitcoins suggested leaflets. I see what Frozenlock means about it maybe coming across a bit pushy but why not try it out? We're all leaders now, no need to wait for permission. Just do it.

I would like to human DDoS merchants. I will go in to starbucks on City Road London and demand to pay in Bitcoin. We need 9 other people to sign up to do the same over next 2 weeks.

Any takers?

This. I'm back in the market baby, with more coins!!!

It may have dropped a bit lower than I expected overnight, but no doubt we'll see another wave up!

Seems like we get an inevitable cycle here. People oversell, and when people are no longer scared, boom the price surges.

My biggest fear is not being in the market, when the direction changes, and having to buy in at a loss.

I'm doing it for the coins baby, the more you hold, the more you make!

Cashing in and out of BTCs is pretty difficult at the moment. The community hasnt come up with a working solution to solve the bottleneck problem.

So we have got a decentralized currency but the exchanges are very centralized and shut down as soon as the public is giving some attention to BTCs.

Those problems are the underlying condition imo.

Imagine we get a steep ride to 120$ again and big interest is coming back. And then? MtGox will shut down most likely and we get the next panic selling that brings us under 100$ again.

Already under $100 ...

 

they say they have a new engine.  it's yet to be tested.  wait for the test.

This might be a good thing.

It'll force BTC transactions to remain denominated in BTC.

Too many speculators are waiting for cash out~~~

Did you press Post too early?

I suspect prices are going to go back up tomorrow morning when the Winklevii news gets out.

Why ?price is steady falling...but cash out of speculators is not a despairing situations for BTC as it will reducing volatility of the price.

I am disagree with you ,application does not guarantee to be approve...and in facts, it is other way to shows, twins are want to cash out their BTC, but considering to the fact that the market can't take up those BTC without significant decreasing of its value.

Why? Aren't they selling a huge amount of their coins?

Do you know who they're selling them to?

My guess is the trust they're stetting up so no BTC will hit the exchanges as such, thus no immediate price fluctuation.

They are making it as easy as possible for large investors to buy Bitcoin.

They are going to buy more Bitcoin if they need to.

Hello face, meet my palm.

Yeah, that was my initial thought too.

But then you've got to look at the positive side. It opens up BTC to lots of people who have serious, serious money.

A few million $ is nothing to them, but could be a $20 price rise for us and now it's easy.

If it goes through this might cause a real surge in BTC.

Also the twins may not necessarily be cashing out, could be that they hold their shares, or even buy more BTC as the money rolls in. Shit chances are they've already been buying the BTC, and are responsible for a lot of the recent volatility.

They're not exactly going to announce that they've been buying more recently, if they want to keep the price down (to buy more), are they?

So they aren't selling any of their coins?

If you can't see the light at the end of the tunnel I'll just leave you in the cave. Bitcoin has a real problem with fiat, this alleviates that.

Don't worry, I'll throw you steaks occasionally, just clean up after yourself.

I think you misunderstood my question or don't know or like the answer.

http://www.rubberstamps.net/custom_rubber_stamps.aspx

Nobody knows is the answer to your question. We have no way of knowing how many coins they are holding, beyond what they choose to tell us.

I feel you guys are delusional about the twins plan......They are selling their coins to public to ensure their wealth will not be eaten by the volatility of BTC/USD.

BTC is not a deflation currency, it is inflation currency indeed.
To maintaining current price level , BTC worlds need attracting net in cash flow 3600*365/11347625=11.58% of its market cap. which is above 100 millions USD per year.

Regard to the possibility of government intervention in the future, and cash out executed by those BTC pioneers and the constrains of USD withdraw...

Think again ,price could be maintaining or decreasing...

Hahaha... I don't think this alleviates anything... What it could do however is massively increase demand, and correspondingly further reduce the limited supply. Hence the price probably will go up at least a little bit if it initially.

All these things and the corresponding press no doubt will push the $/BTC price go up, but does nothing for the actual usefulness of BTC.

It's just crazy. Still I don't mind paying micro BTC if it makes us early adopters rich!!!

This is most likely true.  I am sure the Winklevii want to keep their wealth secure as much as possible and are probably selling for that purpose.  But I appreciate all the press they keep bringing our way.  It could just cause more people to look into it and jump in.  Also, it is better if they spread some of the BTC around.  It is never good to have one entity holding onto so much coin.

Well for one thing you're assuming everyone who mines is selling... Simply not true

For another thing 100 million USD while it seems a large amount, in a global market where BTC is now in all the major press it's really not that big

I think it alleviates it. Not only that, it takes the security risk away from the technology impaired. Now I can just hold paper and get in and out of Bitcoin on a whim. Now my stepfather can finally get into Bitcoin without shooting himself directly in the foot.



This could be true, but IMO they are holding additional Bitcoin and are using this as a way to increase their value, not to merely maintain it. Either way, it's a win for them, that's for sure (should it pass).

In regard to the 100Million not being a big number point I made, have a look at this video, it kind of puts things in perspective.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=K7LQu-eIOO0

It is not doubt that most people come to BTC is because they think they can get rich on it.(Based on fiats) if the liquidity methods are restricted, which part makes you think 100 millions of USD will be put in ? and the video is prior than MTGOX issues its restriction on the withdraw.

Me too, it'll probably accelerate as people deposit more fiat in to speculate off this

Well if the winklevii twins thing happens there will suddenly be no liquidity problems (for investors). That problem will be solved, and suddenly there will be a whole bunch of institutions (not just people) drawn to BTC, because they think it could make their investors rich.

Seriously, if I ran a retirement fund. I'd be crazy to not put at least some BTC in the basket (at least for the high risk options). The potential longterm potential upside is huge, and it's only the long term that you care about when you're retiring right?
BTC certainly is part of my retirement strategy... Shit no doubt some people have already retired off it.

They sell their BTC as a trust fund, and that looks like nothing to do with our coins...if they got approve,then it is mean people who buying their coins can instantly cash in or out...but it will be a good mile stone for sure, because it may replace MT.GOX as a new price index....

I will be more than happy , I hate people in MT.GOX, especially those speculators, they look like playing a game like who get sold first and who buy back at lowest, again and again ,those guys creating volatility and destroying the faith of long term investors, and scary potential investors.  

Well I think it has everything to do with us and Mt. Gox because as I understand it the trust will buy more coins?

At the end of the day those coins have to come from somewhere, and until something better comes along Gox no doubt will be one of its sources.

I actually checked the wallet of AVALON chips. Total number unchanged at about 77,000 BTC. I guess the high demand in the past two month (when avalon open for order) is somehow related to the sales of avalon chips. Now that avalon order is closed. There will be few demands. 

At this moment I would only say to you wait and see...

in addition, I am monitoring to the Global noods of QT clients everyday, it is only around 930 nodes connected to the blockchain everyday...I am worry that once a day the long time need to do a transaction confirmation will also be a hidden risk of BTC and its ability to as a currency...
 

The length of time for transaction confirmation is already an issue I would think.   But I think it is a problem that could eventually be solved with more services.  Perhaps by having an escrow service, or third party location, where people can store their BTC and have the coin already confirmed and ready to use so there is no down time?  Of course the biggest issue will be security for the company that is holding those coins.  For those people with much coin they would not want to leave it there long.  Perhaps only put the btc in when you know you are going to spend them.  That sort of thing.  I am sure this has been discussed somewhere on the board though.  These are just my thoughts on this.

Be patient, that sold today would be high chance that can buying back cheaply, based on several mathematics assumptions.... ;D
MT.Gox said it will suspend the USD withdraw for two weeks, we are approaching that date...MT.Gox considering as a Price index so far, if they can't back to normal, another panic selling is just ahead....I guess bitstamp will be a victim of MT.Gox , we can get very cheap coins in there by that time..