Bitcoin Forum

Now is the chance to turn this around.

Or should I say?

"Now or never.."

buy now or the train will leave you.... or i just mean sell :D

Maybe we are just waiting for the price to get down around 50, then we will restart the rocket?

I'm counting on the low 80s bulls to save us now. If not, I may have bought in at the wrong time  :D

No problem, still made a small profit and can't catch all the knifes.

How do you calculate your profits/losses?

Seems to me you should be in the red for the last few days.

Well, I have a consistent amount of BTC. If I sell 100 BTC yesterday and buy back today making 6 BTC, I count that as a profit. Still long term bull, the more BTC the better regardless of what is happening right now.

Oh I see... so you are in the red.  :P

not yet

Oh yes it is.

If you value your BTC in dollars, I guess so? The only reason I have some dollars left is to have a get out of the country fund, pay rent and put fuel in the car.

If you have more coins that still buy less stuff than before, then you are in the red. But if you really want to play a super long game and can stomach holding for years, that may not be a problem.

I'm 24 with no wife, kids or debt. I'm good thanks. You can play your strategy, I'll play mine :)

Come on! Gogogo!

http://www.pino44.com/wp-content/uploads/2010/10/You__re_So_Stubborn_by_coffinberry.png

possible bottom is $44 (but in zero sum game it is not possible to sell @ $90 and buy back @ $45 for everyone) :-)

LOL somebody is showing colors.
What a hypocrite! ;)

Choo choo?

 ;)

Haha, lets see how that's gonna work out for you. ;D

The latter one looks like fallout.  :o

no cho-cho ??

It was not prediction ... (worst case scenario, I'm not daytrader but long time investor)

Sharp downtrends consistently seem to bring out the worst in you. You're like an inverse rpietila.

That role belongs to me! :D

Sharp downtrends bring out the worst in all of us ;)

It goes like this:

1) Sell at the bottom of a dip, place buy orders $5-$10 lower
2) Curse yourself while BTCUSD goes up $5-$10 in the following week.
3) Say to yourself "BTC will never go as low as my buy orders again... darn. I should move my buy orders up and take the loss."
4) MOST IMPORTANT STEP: Do NOT move your buy orders up.
5) Wait another week or two, and watch your buy orders get filled.

Repeat this process. Only works if you are willing to accept that we are in a short/mid-term bear market. Which we are.

Of course, you still need to pick a realistic bottom. Look at the '11 bubble. We started sub $0.50, went up to $32, then slowwwwwwly crashed down to $2. That's several hundreds of % above the starting point, depending on what price you pick for the starting point. (0.25? 0.50? 0.75? $1.00? All good guesses.) This bubble, well, it started at $13, went to $266, quickly crashed to just above $50, dead cat bounced to $160ish, and since then it's been on a slow descent. There's no reason to believe the bottom will be $5 or $13, it's more likely to be $32, $50. If we are just making blind extrapolations and assuming that this bear market will follow the EXACT same course as the '11 bubble, in the EXACT same length of time, then the bottom will be in the $24-$50 range and we will reach it in, who knows, 6-8 months.

And remember, the bottom that everyone picks, is the bottom that we haven't a chance in hell of reaching.  ;) And when EVERYONE decides we're in a bear market, the bull market will rear its beautiful head once more.

Better option: Long LTC.  8)

1.9944/31.90990=0.0625*266=16.63

If I'll have opportunity to buy at $17 then I'll give you 1 BTC for free. (time frame 1 year)

I don't want to win that Bitcoin, that would be a catastrophe. :(

nicely written ...

I'm panic holding.  We are Definitely in a Bear Market.

Me too. Probably will for a few more years.

At this point it's lots of fun just panic observing.

What was that statistic, only 60000BTC, .5% of total Bitcoin supply, is in the orderbooks? Probably a bit off but you get the point.

Looks like the hype is dying down considerably.

Forever bullish though.. Long term eh

Not catastrophe , only cheap coins :-) (I can afford to buy hundreds)

I feel the slump with BTC as of late is a few factors. One, this is the first summer that a booming BTC value and all the interest therein has seen. People are selling off for various reasons to raise good ol cash, for vacations etc. Secondly, many GPU miners are either turning off their miners due to the drastic influx of Asics, (and the summer heat) and or selling off a lot of their BTC to raise money for the purchase of A$ics..... in hopes of staying ahead of the curve. I still believe that the BTC price will turn around BIG when this dust settles. And more and more things seem" to becoming more legitimized for BTC, its spotty but its there. All this coming from just a lowly ol miner, just my opinion :)

ASIC miners are losing money (putting more money into hardware and taking it out of the economy).  Most of them just haven't realized how much they will lose yet at which point we'll have a real bear market.

Also - Google search trends have BTC valued around $25-$30 now (eg. search volume is twice as high as what is was in the beginning of 2013, and down a ton from the peak of the bubble).

ASICs are main reason price is plummeting... all those coins used to buy asics or asic mining shares have to be sold somewhere. and there are too many of them for support to handle.

I agree, it will stabilize when ASIC mania settles down.

Most of ASICs were paid with BTC by people who want to mine more BTC than they paid for hardware.

Miners are not one who are or will bring the price down, it's ASIC manufacturers who are doing that.

astute observation

In a gold rush money is in the shovels - cash only.

Well a lot of the money (BTC) being sent to the manufacturer's, is in turn going over seas for boards/chips and components etc. Some of which Im sure is being hoarded. But in the short term, the ROI for miners investing in Asics is great, but it wont last long, unless we are willing to re-invest over and over to keep up with difficulty, so its sometimes hard to see that return. I am not a speculator with BTC, I just sell what I mine as many others. But often I wonder if I wouldn't be better off buying BTC low and selling high :) But without mining, BTC stops and perhaps that would in fact grow the value, no supply and all demand BTC goes up  :o but yes, right now asics are probably hurting the market, but it will level off.

Its clear we're in a slide, but personally I won't panic unless we break the low at $57 or whatever it was.

If a lot of miners stopped mining, you'd still have the same supply, just a much less secure network.
ftfy

why panic when you can buy

Yes that is true, same supply, but it would be held by the elite few mining companys at that point with the most powerfull hashing,,,then they would set the market value,,,,lol

Becuause if it breaks $57 It'll probably go down to like $20 or something.

IMO the support levels are:

$85ish (the low following the bounce off $57)
$57
$17 (won't actually hit it, likely stay like $20ish or something)

Currently I'm thinking a bounce off of $57 is most likely, probably never actually hitting $57 again, though we'll likely see $60. I've been wrong plenty before though so I could easily be wrong again.

Probably not completely true.  Counterexample:  I get "free" electricity ... No event outside of a freak accident is going to stop me from mining for the foreseeable future.

You wont' be alone sweating if it dips that low! I have quite a bit tied up in new asic gear and calmly waiting for its arrival as I watch the value in that gear,,,slip slidng away"

prices won't go below $70-$75 unless Gox breaks below $88 before they start allowing USD withdrawals again.  If it doesn't break below that, we will have a trend reversal, likely a fantastic one.

Agreed. I have no plans in stopping, but the value in hashing is dropping like a led balloon and before you know it, to maintain a substainable income for it all, its time to buy more gear...The only hope we have is for BTC to rise at a rate that out paces the difficulty, if so then its all good :) in theory it should go that way.... but so much depends on the regulators sticking their noses in it etc etc...who knows?

... and it just broke.

"if you're not out, get out" lol

seriously, all downhill from here.

lol  :P

Why am I seeing Bitcoinity at $92 etc... etc...

which market are you watching?  did you refresh?  last gox price for me on that site was 87.xx ...

Bitcoinity has a 3 minute delay due to lag at Gox...

87.00 now :(

Bitcoinity is looking so nooby right now to me...

I'm seeing:

   92.59 USD / BTC
bid: 98.18    ask: 87.80

WTF, Bid > Ask, and the supposed price higher than both?

Literally wtf: https://i.imgur.com/19xXlLa.png

my view is much different than that.  maybe zoom in a bit on the top will do something for you?  i dunno

We must hold 85-86. It is the last significant support in the 80s. After that, I expect to see a small panic down to 70s. Not good.

BTC-e is already at 75 btw.

Don't panic, it's going back up  ;D

like i paraphrased in another thread, it's not the panic itself, it's HOW you panic.
panic holding == not much addition/subtraction to current situation   ;D ;)

Bulls are finding their feet now, this could be interesting.

it looks like it held, for now at least.

We could climb up into the 90s sorta signalling an almost-double-bottom which would be a very good thing if the 90 level can be held for a couple days, or we could fall back down to sub-85 levels probably signalling a collapse down to $57, which is obviously a bad thing. Either way I won't be hugely surprised.

Or we could be boring and stay right where we are.

Yea, this post was probably my least illuminating piece of analysis yet  :'(

I've thought carefully about your analysis and I think you're saying...

...it could go up or down or stay where it is?


 ;D

Now draw those scenarios out in random Elliot wave jargon and you can take over for Lucif when he goes on vacation.  ;)

law of demand....as price goes down, demand rises... intro to microeconomics stuff peeps

Thats oversimplifying the situation. We are dealing with people's emotions, greed, fear, and their view of Bitcoin. Bitcoin doesn't have any price to earnings ratio, doesn't pay any dividends, doesn't allow you to cash out at any period of time. It can't be valued in any traditional way. The demand for Bitcoin depends on its value sure, but it doesn't necessary increase linearly as price goes down.

Panic hold = bad call.. sorry dudes you got hosed.  :( 

I don't know, I wish I had panic held through that whole fork fiasco. Believe it or not I was much more worried then than I am worried now, because back then the actual protocol was potentially threatened. Now I believe in case of a bad scenario, goes down to $57, woo, I sat through the crash from $277 I think I can stomach that. I suppose $17 is the absolute worst case scenario which would be pretty bad but I highly doubt it.

;D

We seem to be teetering right on $90. A nice little bid wall will grow right there if we are lucky.

A lil' consolidation never did us no harm

Announcments like this are always welcome!   :o


http://www.coindesk.com/winklevoss-twins-file-for-20m-ipo-of-bitcoin-trust-fund/

Probably yesterdays news...lol but i just read it....

So I wonder where the $20M is going to come from. I mean I know thats not much in wall st. terms, but still.

In 2 weeks we'll be in the $70's.

Prove me wrong.  ;D

Oh Ashley... when I said you should be drinking and trading, I didn't mean short all your Bitcoins. Don't get left behind on this next rally! :P

I'd say +110usd/btc in 2 weeks...  Good press... Gox is legal-ish now. 
TC

72 right now didn't take close to 2 weeks. I say 50 in 2 weeks. A lot of hot air was blown into that bubble. It is going to find a way out. I just need to take my own advice and stop trying to catch the bottom.  :)