Bitcoin Forum

Bitcoin => Bitcoin Discussion => Topic started by: qualia8 on June 30, 2011, 11:27:02 PM



Title: What if...
Post by: qualia8 on June 30, 2011, 11:27:02 PM
What will you do if bitcoins drop to $5 but hold very steady there for the next two years.  Assume that the bitcoin economy grows, slowly and steadily, all that time and that mining remains profitable, but only marginally so as difficulty adjusts as soon as more GPU power comes online.

(1) Late-arriving speculators will leave for some other market with more action.

(2) Casual miners will quit because the returns won't be worth the hassle -- heat and noise of mining and capital sunk into rigs.

(3) Entrepreneurs in the bitcoin universe will be happy, as will mainstream vendors.

(4) True believers will be thrilled as the currency takes hold knowing that bitcoin will eventually upend the existing structures of commerce and government.

What's your reaction?  And which of (1)-(4) are you?


Title: Re: What if...
Post by: MoonShadow on June 30, 2011, 11:28:55 PM
4


Title: Re: What if...
Post by: MeSarah on June 30, 2011, 11:33:07 PM
What if you went blind, deaf, and had your feet and hands cut off. Would you still want to trade in btc and if so how would you?


Title: Re: What if...
Post by: MoonShadow on June 30, 2011, 11:35:15 PM
What if you went blind, deaf, and had your feet and hands cut off. Would you still want to trade in btc and if so how would you?

Braile marque using my nose?


Title: Re: What if...
Post by: SlaveInDebt on June 30, 2011, 11:37:04 PM
What if you made a poll?

Option 4 btw


Title: Re: What if...
Post by: TiagoTiago on June 30, 2011, 11:38:01 PM
At the beginning, before it started looking like it was gonna hold at that price for a long time, i would probably be buying quite a bit more than i would if the price kept going up from now.


Title: Re: What if...
Post by: qualia8 on June 30, 2011, 11:39:35 PM
What will you do if bitcoins drop to $5 but hold very steady there for the next two years.  Assume that the bitcoin economy grows, slowly and steadily, all that time and that mining remains profitable, but only marginally so as difficulty adjusts as soon as more GPU power comes online.

I believe that there is a built-in contradiction in your scenario: the
basic theory behind fiat currencies is that the rate at which currency
is created should correspond to the rate at which wealth is created
(goods, services, etc ...) for it to remain stable wrt other currencies.

Apply this premise to your scenario: how can the economy grow and
the currency drop ? The only two ways that can happen are:

     - the bitcoin economy grows exactly at the same pace BTC are minted -- unlikely IMO

     - the USD value drops fast enough to compensate for the delta between BTC mint rate and bitcoin economy growth rate
       Possible, but also unlikely.



 


Here's the thought.  Most of current value is speculative.  Suppose the bubble "bursts", but still some speculators remain.  Those speculators leave at the same time as real BTC economy grows.  Thus the price remains steady at $5.  Unlikely?  Yes.  Impossible?  No.



Title: Re: What if...
Post by: qualia8 on June 30, 2011, 11:40:16 PM
What if you went blind, deaf, and had your feet and hands cut off. Would you still want to trade in btc and if so how would you?

Yes, and that still leaves one un-amputated appendage.


Title: Re: What if...
Post by: MoonShadow on June 30, 2011, 11:41:58 PM


Here's the thought.  Most of current value is speculative. 

You can't possiblely know this to be true.


Title: Re: What if...
Post by: MeSarah on June 30, 2011, 11:55:47 PM
What if you went on a 3 hour boat tour, got lost at sea in a storm and ended up and an uncharted tropical deserted island with no communications. You had a comb, pocket knife, baling wire, duct tape, some WD-40 and you were taught by MacGruber how to improvise in any situation. What would you do next so that you can mine and trade bitcoins?


Edit: Fixed name.


Title: Re: What if...
Post by: cbeast on July 01, 2011, 12:02:02 AM
What if you went on a 3 hour boat tour, got lost at sea in a storm and ended up and an uncharted tropical deserted island with no communications. You had a comb, pocket knife, baling wire, duct tape, some WD-40 and you were taught by McGroover how to improvise in any situation. What would you do next so that you can mine and trade bitcoins?
I and The Professor would build a bitminer out of coconuts and a wireless internet connection. We would wait for rescuers so we can then buy the island and develop a resort for rich people like us.


Title: Re: What if...
Post by: CurbsideProphet on July 01, 2011, 12:02:27 AM


Here's the thought.  Most of current value is speculative. 

You can't possiblely know this to be true.

Of course you can.  There's very little medium of exchange for Bitcoin so the value represented is based on the speculation of it's future adoption/uses.


Title: Re: What if...
Post by: MoonShadow on July 01, 2011, 12:02:32 AM
What if you went on a 3 hour boat tour, got lost at sea in a storm and ended up and an uncharted tropical deserted island with no communications. You had a comb, pocket knife, baling wire, duct tape, some WD-40 and you were taught by McGroover how to improvise in any situation. What would you do next so that you can mine and trade bitcoins?

Build a new boat.


Title: Re: What if...
Post by: TiagoTiago on July 01, 2011, 12:10:18 AM
Didn't the Mythbusters build a boat with a similar set of materials?


Title: Re: What if...
Post by: MoonShadow on July 01, 2011, 12:14:07 AM
Didn't the Mythbusters build a boat with a similar set of materials?

And the engine, just for giggles.


Title: Re: What if...
Post by: TiagoTiago on July 01, 2011, 12:20:22 AM
Engine? I think it was a sailboat....


Title: Re: What if...
Post by: MeSarah on July 01, 2011, 12:37:06 AM
What if you had a fetus in fetu named Quasimodo that could see the furture and he didnt tell you about the bitcoin price drop. What would you do?


Title: Re: What if...
Post by: Tasty Champa on July 01, 2011, 12:39:19 AM
Question


Answer:
Just ask Jesus.


Title: Re: What if...
Post by: bitcoiners on July 01, 2011, 12:54:02 AM
Question


Answer:
Just ask Jesus.

I like to picture Jesus as a figure skater. He wears like a white outfit, and He does interpretive ice dances of my life's journey.


Title: Re: What if...
Post by: dennis_sweden on July 01, 2011, 01:16:04 AM


Here's the thought.  Most of current value is speculative. 

You can't possiblely know this to be true.

Of course you can.  There's very little medium of exchange for Bitcoin so the value represented is based on the speculation of it's future adoption/uses.

Agreed, Bitcoin does not even store wealth, although this claim has been made on this forum. Bitcoin has lost ca: $1.5 since Mtgox opened; anyone looking to preserve wealth would be wise to stay away from Bitcoin at this stage. Also, the value of Bitcoin was, according to what I have heard, stable for a long period of time, before appreciating during the spring. The only way that an apreciation could have occurred that is not due to speculation would be if the marketplace/usability of Bitcoin had grown substantially.


Title: Re: What if...
Post by: PCRon on July 01, 2011, 01:22:58 AM
What if you went on a 3 hour boat tour, got lost at sea in a storm and ended up and an uncharted tropical deserted island with no communications. You had a comb, pocket knife, baling wire, duct tape, some WD-40 and you were taught by McGroover how to improvise in any situation. What would you do next so that you can mine and trade bitcoins?

Build a new boat.

you forgot to add the professor, Maryann and Ginger... 


Title: Re: What if...
Post by: NO_SLAVE on July 01, 2011, 01:26:27 AM
Question


Answer:
Just ask Jesus.

I like to picture Jesus as a figure skater. He wears like a white outfit, and He does interpretive ice dances of my life's journey.

I actually really like this imagery...


Title: Re: What if...
Post by: Rassah on July 01, 2011, 01:32:52 AM
There is a lot of daily volume of bitcoin being bought and sold. If it was just speculative, the price wouldn't be so stable. Stability suggests some people are spending it on SOMETHING out there. Also, speculation is not a bad thing, and I wish people would get off that idea. Also also, even at $5, bitcoin is still valuable enough for casual mining.


Title: Re: What if...
Post by: Rassah on July 01, 2011, 01:34:20 AM
The only way that an apreciation could have occurred that is not due to speculation would be if the marketplace/usability of Bitcoin had grown substantially.

Are you saying that was NOT the case???


Title: Re: What if...
Post by: MeSarah on July 01, 2011, 01:36:10 AM
I like to picture Jesus as a figure skater. He wears like a white outfit, and He does interpretive ice dances of my life's journey.

LoL @ Bitcoiners.. What music is playing?
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=J9o0Fp80OLI
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IzWae7e0ocE