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Economy => Speculation => Topic started by: marvinrouge on July 03, 2013, 06:37:32 PM



Title: Market cycle : where do you think we are ? (July 11)
Post by: marvinrouge on July 03, 2013, 06:37:32 PM
http://www.bethetop5percent.com/wp-content/uploads/2011/10/cycle-of-market-emotions.jpg


July 3
anxiety2****
denial       8****************
fear       13**************************
desperation 5 **********
panic       7 **************
capitulation 4 ********
despondency 2****
depression    2****


July 6
anxiety1**
denial       6************
fear       12************************
desperation 7**************
panic       9**************
capitulation 6************
despondency 1****
depression 2****
hope2****
relief1**


July 9
anxiety1**
denial       6**********************
fear       12******************
desperation 7************
panic       9**
capitulation 6************
despondency 1******
depression 2********
hope2***********
relief1****
optimism1****


Title: Re: Market cycle : where do you think we are ?
Post by: Wekkel on July 03, 2013, 06:43:10 PM
Very obvious that this is denial....


Title: Re: Market cycle : where do you think we are ?
Post by: Rampion on July 03, 2013, 06:43:25 PM
Obviously denial. Fear is coming.


Title: Re: Market cycle : where do you think we are ?
Post by: Jaroslaw on July 03, 2013, 06:43:30 PM
anxiety for sure looking at the forums bulls :D


Title: Re: Market cycle : where do you think we are ?
Post by: N12 on July 03, 2013, 06:45:48 PM
"Temporary setback – I'm a long term investor." :D


Title: Re: Market cycle : where do you think we are ?
Post by: MAbtc on July 03, 2013, 06:46:07 PM
Denial, fear is close.  :)


Title: Re: Market cycle : where do you think we are ?
Post by: Jaroslaw on July 03, 2013, 06:47:26 PM
"how could i be so wrong" hahaha


Title: Re: Market cycle : where do you think we are ?
Post by: notme on July 03, 2013, 06:48:45 PM
I think we are past denial.  That was all the rage last week.  I'd put us somewhere from fear to panic.


Title: Re: Market cycle : where do you think we are ?
Post by: Miz4r on July 03, 2013, 06:50:31 PM
I don't really believe in this cycle, at least I don't believe it will always play out like this in every single market. I think there is a lot of fear in the market right now, but we're nowhere near panic yet. It might not get to the panic and capitulation stage, but if it does things will get really interesting. ;D Personally I'm mostly a long term investor, and will scoop up the cheap coins if it gets to panic and capitulation. :)


Title: Re: Market cycle : where do you think we are ?
Post by: Jozzaboy on July 03, 2013, 06:50:46 PM
I put us in panic. Bulls are getting edgy, those with more than funzies money locked up in Bitcoin.

Otherwise, I am temporary setback  8)


Title: Re: Market cycle : where do you think we are ?
Post by: Frozenlock on July 03, 2013, 06:57:33 PM
I think we are past denial.  That was all the rage last week.  I'd put us somewhere from fear to panic.

My money is on fear.  :)


Title: Re: Market cycle : where do you think we are ?
Post by: rampantparanoia on July 03, 2013, 06:59:42 PM
straight up euphoria :)


Title: Re: Market cycle : where do you think we are ?
Post by: Frozenlock on July 03, 2013, 07:06:02 PM
Oh goody...
More than I thought are still in denial.

http://www.reddit.com/r/Bitcoin/comments/1hkqim/are_you_still_holding_large_amount_of_btc/ (http://www.reddit.com/r/Bitcoin/comments/1hkqim/are_you_still_holding_large_amount_of_btc/)


Title: Re: Market cycle : where do you think we are ?
Post by: marvinrouge on July 03, 2013, 07:06:09 PM
So according to the forum users, we are halfway  ;D


Title: Re: Market cycle : where do you think we are ?
Post by: Frozenlock on July 03, 2013, 07:07:16 PM
So according to the forum users, we are halfway  ;D

Sure... and the top was $266.

You can do the math.  ;D


Title: Re: Market cycle : where do you think we are ?
Post by: N12 on July 03, 2013, 07:08:02 PM
Oh goody...
More than I thought are still in denial.

http://www.reddit.com/r/Bitcoin/comments/1hkqim/are_you_still_holding_large_amount_of_btc/
Great, r/bitcoin is a really reliable sentiment indicator. 300 spartans to be devoured by the persians.


Title: Re: Market cycle : where do you think we are ?
Post by: Spaceman_Spiff on July 03, 2013, 07:08:35 PM
I think we are past denial.  That was all the rage last week.  I'd put us somewhere from fear to panic.

My money is on fear.  :)

I think yesterday and today are the start of fear.


Title: Re: Market cycle : where do you think we are ?
Post by: marvinrouge on July 03, 2013, 07:08:49 PM
So according to the forum users, we are halfway  ;D

Sure... and the top was $266.

You can do the math.  ;D

Or 125, the post-crash average


Title: Re: Market cycle : where do you think we are ?
Post by: Saint! on July 03, 2013, 07:19:30 PM
Fear, recent buyers are freaking out after buying in at +100

Really just need some good press, things are happening just nothing concrete coming out and all the while the price is trickling down.


Title: Re: Market cycle : where do you think we are ? (update!)
Post by: marvinrouge on July 06, 2013, 12:17:43 AM
update  ;D

With the recent evolutions, the situation is different now.
You can vote again :)


Title: Re: Market cycle : where do you think we are ?
Post by: tokeweed on July 06, 2013, 12:18:52 AM
straight up euphoria :)

rofl


Title: Re: Market cycle : where do you think we are ? (update!)
Post by: afbitcoins on July 06, 2013, 09:06:13 AM
Not speaking for myself but people are panicking


Title: Re: Market cycle : where do you think we are ? (update!)
Post by: freedomno1 on July 06, 2013, 09:10:41 AM
Desperation day give it a few more hours to transition towards panic


Title: Re: Market cycle : where do you think we are ? (update!)
Post by: tokeweed on July 06, 2013, 09:37:46 AM
Desperation day give it a few more hours to transition towards panic

yeah. but some people are still in a state of denial. they wont sell whatever happens.


Title: Re: Market cycle : where do you think we are ? (update!)
Post by: freedomno1 on July 06, 2013, 09:43:01 AM
Desperation day give it a few more hours to transition towards panic

yeah. but some people are still in a state of denial. they wont sell whatever happens.

Well there's selling and then theirs building up bitcoins by aiming downward hehe


Title: Re: Market cycle : where do you think we are ? (update!)
Post by: Wagner2014 on July 06, 2013, 09:45:13 AM
FEAR


Title: Re: Market cycle : where do you think we are ? (update!)
Post by: dakiller on July 06, 2013, 09:57:34 AM
Somewhere between Fear and Capitulation.

I saw the tide turn at $128, but didn't sell most till $120.


Title: Re: Market cycle : where do you think we are ? (update!)
Post by: xorglub on July 06, 2013, 10:08:37 AM
Come on, we're not at capitulation yet !

Past denial for sure, if we refer to the mode traditional 5 stages of grief, I'd say between anger and bargaining.
Lots of anger in the air for sure, just look at all the trolling taking place on this forum in the past few days :)
Lots of bargaining too, as perma-bulls are now joining the bears playing the "we're in a downtrend, but I'll use that to increase my position by buying the dips and selling on the bounce up. Buy low, sell high, I'm making money right ?" game.
Not enough despair... but don't worry we'll get there.


Title: Re: Market cycle : where do you think we are ? (update!)
Post by: tokeweed on July 06, 2013, 10:11:02 AM
Come on, we're not at capitulation yet !

Past denial for sure, if we refer to the mode traditional 5 stages of grief, I'd say between anger and bargaining.
Lots of anger in the air for sure, just look at oll the trolling taking place on this forum in the past few days :)
Lots of bargaining too, as perma-bulls are now joining the bears playing the "we're in a downtrend, but I'll use that to increase my position by buying the dips and selling on the bounce up. Buy low, sell high, I'm making money right ?" game.
Not enough despair... but don't worry we'll get there.

i am excited to see how all the people pissed off react when it gets to this stage.


Title: Re: Market cycle : where do you think we are ? (July 9)
Post by: marvinrouge on July 09, 2013, 01:33:34 AM
market cycle thermometer, part 3  8)


Title: Re: Market cycle : where do you think we are ? (July 9)
Post by: xavier on July 09, 2013, 02:42:01 AM
We're in a mid term down trend

Things are playing out just as expected

Target: $30


Title: Re: Market cycle : where do you think we are ? (July 9)
Post by: freedomno1 on July 09, 2013, 03:13:40 AM
Hope


Title: Re: Market cycle : where do you think we are ? (July 9)
Post by: Wagner2014 on July 09, 2013, 04:18:23 AM
Still in the denial stage I reckon.  ;D


Title: Re: Market cycle : where do you think we are ? (July 9)
Post by: derpinheimer on July 09, 2013, 04:42:05 AM
Hope

Today:
18,699.49 sold
17,676.04 bought


It's hard to make a case for hope with that not being in favor of buyers.




Title: Re: Market cycle : where do you think we are ? (July 9)
Post by: freedomno1 on July 09, 2013, 05:03:19 AM
Hope

Today:
18,699.49 sold
17,676.04 bought


It's hard to make a case for hope with that not being in favor of buyers.




The case was for the bounce if you refer to the image graph you can see that its similar to hope  ;D

http://www.bethetop5percent.com/wp-content/uploads/2011/10/cycle-of-market-emotions.jpg
https://mtgox.com/


Title: Re: Market cycle : where do you think we are ? (July 9)
Post by: BitPirate on July 09, 2013, 10:44:24 AM
Hope

Today:
18,699.49 sold
17,676.04 bought


It's hard to make a case for hope with that not being in favor of buyers.




Basically even then. The stat isn't very useful anyway -- obviously an equal number were sold as bought, but more were sold at market price than bought. However, this is not a very good gauge of the direction of sentiment trend change. What is interesting to know is, overall, what was the age of those bids in the orderbook, and how that age has changed recently. (i.e. how many of the bids are relatively new).



Title: Re: Market cycle : where do you think we are ? (July 9)
Post by: BitPirate on July 09, 2013, 10:47:01 AM
Hope

Today:
18,699.49 sold
17,676.04 bought


It's hard to make a case for hope with that not being in favor of buyers.




The case was for the bounce if you refer to the image graph you can see that its similar to hope  ;D

http://www.bethetop5percent.com/wp-content/uploads/2011/10/cycle-of-market-emotions.jpg
https://mtgox.com/

This chart is just f***ing awesome. A bunch of people investing and singing from the same songsheet!

LOL

Seriously, this is no different from people basing their decisions on the bible.

The true bottom (which is either already in, or not far off), is a fantastic opportunity to profit from people who blindly adhere to such faith.


Title: Re: Market cycle : where do you think we are ? (July 9)
Post by: freedomno1 on July 09, 2013, 10:52:23 AM
Temporary set back
I'm a long term investor  ;)


Title: Re: Market cycle : where do you think we are ? (July 9)
Post by: Radacoin on July 09, 2013, 11:06:27 AM
Denial. Quite obvious.


Title: Re: Market cycle : where do you think we are ? (July 9)
Post by: sarc on July 09, 2013, 11:33:13 AM
Come on guys, let's be objective about this, here's a chart:

https://i.imgur.com/6rquUut.gif

It's clear to me than denial was on its ass and on the way out, but just got up for a final pasting before going down for good. ...fear is coming.


Title: Re: Market cycle : where do you think we are ? (July 9)
Post by: marvinrouge on July 09, 2013, 11:43:15 AM
Come on guys, let's be objective about this, here's a chart:

https://i.imgur.com/6rquUut.gif

It's clear to me than denial was on its ass and on the way out, but just got up for a final pasting before going down for good. ...fear is coming.

So the Despondancy will be at -50   :D

If you give me $50 for each btc I buy I see no reasons to despond ;D


Title: Re: Market cycle : where do you think we are ? (July 9)
Post by: sarc on July 09, 2013, 11:52:15 AM
Come on guys, let's be objective about this, here's a chart:

https://i.imgur.com/6rquUut.gif

It's clear to me than denial was on its ass and on the way out, but just got up for a final pasting before going down for good. ...fear is coming.

So the Despondancy will be at -50   :D

If you give me $50 for each btc I buy I see no reasons to despond ;D

Yes, I'll give you $50 for every bitcoin you buy, but it's an offer open only for a very (very) short time period...


Title: Re: Market cycle : where do you think we are ? (July 9)
Post by: samson on July 09, 2013, 12:01:26 PM
Come on guys, let's be objective about this, here's a chart:

https://i.imgur.com/6rquUut.gif

It's clear to me than denial was on its ass and on the way out, but just got up for a final pasting before going down for good. ...fear is coming.

This - Denial. Fear coming.


Title: Re: Market cycle : where do you think we are ? (July 9)
Post by: Rampion on July 09, 2013, 12:04:39 PM
We had a hint of fear as we went through $88 and $79 like a stone in the water, now with this smallish bounce it seems that it faded away, but it didn't - its still well rooted in the market subconscious, as soon as this bounce reverses towards new lows there will be more fear, but I guess we won't see  REAL fear until sub $50, and true panic approaching the $30s.


Title: Re: Market cycle : where do you think we are ? (July 9)
Post by: codesuela on July 10, 2013, 09:13:00 AM
i think a lot of people are in the denial stage, personally i am at the fear stage


Title: Re: Market cycle : where do you think we are ? (July 9)
Post by: Miz4r on July 10, 2013, 09:59:45 AM
I think you're all in denial, fear, panic, hope and euphoria at the same time.


Title: Re: Market cycle : where do you think we are ? (July 9)
Post by: naphto on July 10, 2013, 10:32:48 AM
Anxiety, obviously


Title: Re: Market cycle : where do you think we are ? (July 9)
Post by: xorglub on July 10, 2013, 10:56:46 AM
Volatility makes people go bipolar. We are... all over the place in the spectrum of emotions. Where we are in the actual bubble deflation process, no one knows, could be anything from fear to hope.


Title: Re: Market cycle : where do you think we are ? (July 9)
Post by: jamesc760 on July 10, 2013, 05:08:53 PM
We've hit the bottom, so yeah we are in Despondency stage.

I am a glass-is-half-full kind of guy.


Title: Re: Market cycle : where do you think we are ? (July 9)
Post by: samson on July 10, 2013, 05:12:56 PM
We've hit the bottom, so yeah we are in Despondency stage.

I am a glass-is-half-full kind of guy.

LOL, we're a long way from the Despondency stage.


Title: Re: Market cycle : where do you think we are ? (July 9)
Post by: bitcryptonit on July 10, 2013, 05:28:33 PM
We've hit the bottom, so yeah we are in Despondency stage.

I am a glass-is-half-full kind of guy.

LOL, we're a long way from the Despondency stage.

because you said so.


Title: Re: Market cycle : where do you think we are ? (July 9)
Post by: samson on July 10, 2013, 05:37:28 PM
We've hit the bottom, so yeah we are in Despondency stage.

I am a glass-is-half-full kind of guy.

LOL, we're a long way from the Despondency stage.

because you said so.

No, because of the sentiment around here : It's not despondent. Everyone doesn't think it's doomed to failure. Not yet anyway....


Title: Re: Market cycle : where do you think we are ? (July 9)
Post by: telemaco on July 10, 2013, 06:47:11 PM
I think you're all in denial, fear, panic, hope and euphoria at the same time.

lol, we are all going to end like rpietilla if we are not already


Title: Re: Market cycle : where do you think we are ? (July 9)
Post by: rampantparanoia on July 10, 2013, 06:50:25 PM
I think you're all in denial, fear, panic, hope and euphoria at the same time.

so we're all having orgasms?


Title: Re: Market cycle : where do you think we are ? (July 9)
Post by: Wekkel on July 10, 2013, 08:03:00 PM
It's still firmly denial. People are already talking about returning to 3-digits..... If history is our guide, it will take longer to wash away the previous run-up.


Title: Re: Market cycle : where do you think we are ? (July 9)
Post by: samson on July 10, 2013, 08:04:25 PM
It's still firmly denial. People are already talking about returning to 3-digits..... If history is our guide, it will take longer to wash away the previous run-up.

Three more months.


Title: Re: Market cycle : where do you think we are ? (July 9)
Post by: IIOII on July 10, 2013, 09:05:09 PM
It's still firmly denial. People are already talking about returning to 3-digits..... If history is our guide, it will take longer to wash away the previous run-up.

This seems reasonable. Although activity in this board is slowing, we have yet to see a depression like the one after the last bubble.

Of course the model could be misguided.


Title: Re: Market cycle : where do you think we are ? (July 9)
Post by: semaforo on July 10, 2013, 10:12:30 PM
   Don't forget that bitcoin is unlike other securities or commodities markets because of the believers. Believers are a market force and the more of us there are the more price stability there will be. My hope is that lots of us are getting in right now. I don't really care if selling is exhausted now or at 20, the main thing is moving as many btc as possible from the weak to the strong hands.


Title: Re: Market cycle : where do you think we are ? (July 11)
Post by: Comodore on July 11, 2013, 07:21:25 AM
He man, that stuff does not work!


Title: Re: Market cycle : where do you think we are ? (July 11)
Post by: marvinrouge on July 11, 2013, 12:04:26 PM
sorry, fixed


Title: Re: Market cycle : where do you think we are ? (July 11)
Post by: freedomno1 on July 12, 2013, 07:33:15 AM
Excitement


Title: Re: Market cycle : where do you think we are ? (July 11)
Post by: Frozenlock on July 12, 2013, 07:37:35 AM
Excitement

New bubble starting?  :D


Title: Re: Market cycle : where do you think we are ? (July 11)
Post by: semaforo on July 12, 2013, 08:31:25 AM
   If by bubble you mean upward movement in price, then yes. By the way, by the definition of bubble being thrown around here, western civilization is also a bubble.



Title: Re: Market cycle : where do you think we are ? (July 11)
Post by: Frozenlock on July 12, 2013, 08:35:08 AM
western civilization is also a bubble.

How can I short it?


Title: Re: Market cycle : where do you think we are ? (July 11)
Post by: notme on July 12, 2013, 08:37:50 AM
western civilization is also a bubble.

How can I short it?

1.  Borrow Europeans and North Americans.
2.  Sell them.


Title: Re: Market cycle : where do you think we are ? (July 11)
Post by: freedomno1 on July 12, 2013, 08:59:32 AM
Excitement

New bubble starting?  :D

Go check out Sandstorm on Havelock for that Frozenlock mumbles idiots for a while == profit watches for a few days to see that trendline
0.001 is not 0.01 !!! mean lol like the market reads threads I'm having fun playing with fire  ;D
https://www.havelockinvestments.com/order.php?symbol=SDSTM


Title: Re: Market cycle : where do you think we are ? (July 11)
Post by: afbitcoins on July 14, 2013, 11:52:09 PM
For me the cycle is more like,

its getting interesting,
its going through the roof
woo hoo might buy more,
its gonna be huge,
dam that was a big fall,
boo its still dropping,
losing interest can't be bothered anymore,
...
...
maybe i'll buy some this must be somewhere near the bottom
...
...
..
its getting interesting


Title: Re: Market cycle : where do you think we are ? (July 11)
Post by: Spaceman_Spiff on July 15, 2013, 12:17:35 AM
I think we are in hope-relief of a short term cycle.  Longer term cycle we are in fear.  Really long term, we are just getting started  ;).


Title: Re: Market cycle : where do you think we are ? (July 9)
Post by: Impaler on July 15, 2013, 01:42:18 AM
We had a hint of fear as we went through $88 and $79 like a stone in the water, now with this smallish bounce it seems that it faded away, but it didn't - its still well rooted in the market subconscious, as soon as this bounce reverses towards new lows there will be more fear, but I guess we won't see  REAL fear until sub $50, and true panic approaching the $30s.


Spot on, I'd add Capitulation at $20 and despondency at $10 if we go that low which I think can occur only if BTC starts to rapidly fall behind LTC (or some other alt) in adoption/use/hype etc.  The block reward halving just about guarantees we come out of all this with a higher price then when it started.