Bitcoin Forum

Any Idea?

Post your opinion.

I think it is because there were more sellers than buyers

Dropped?

A year ago the high for the day was $6.88 per bitcoin.  Today the low so far was $72.5.  Sounds like an increase of $65.62 (853.78%) to me.

Perhaps you just meant since the beginning of this year (2013)?  Lets see...
Jan.1 the high for the day was $13.56.  Nope that's an increase of $58.94 (334.66%).

Maybe you meant the past 24 hours?
24 hours ago the exchange rate was $71.5.  At the moment the rate is $78.  That's in increase of 9% over 24 hours.

Perhaps you are just choosing an arbitrary time in the past when it just happened to be higher and comparing it to a lower value?
In that case, I'd say it dropped because you chose a time in the past when the exchange rate was higher.

Today's special is "Toast with a slice of Perspective"  :)

FYI - this is my first post.   I have been a long time lurker! 

I think there could be a lot of reason for the drop, though recently it seems the price seems to bounce up and down based on news stories.

All over the course of the last few months we have had PRISM, Mt. Gox withdrawal suspension, and Winklevoss twins exchange announcement (no way this will get approved).

 

I think that is the answer.   Why the sellers sell and why the buyers buy, that is the real question.

A+, Mr. Hamilton

No more arbitrary than year-to-date, one year, or 24 hours.  It's certainly lower than the running average for the past month.  It sounds like you're rationalizing.

In case you hadn't caught it.  That was the point I was making.


Which is just as arbitrary.  Those who want to believe that the price is falling choose arbitrary starting points to prove their point.  It is just as possible to choose arbitrary starting points to disprove the point.  How is it doing when compared to 24 hour running average?


As are you.

No, there are always exactly the same number of sellers and buyers (who would the seller sell to when there is no buyer to buy it from him?).
The question is at what price people are willing to sell or buy the coins. At what price would you become a seller, at what price a buyer?

I think he means the drop from when it was steady staying at $100 give or take a couple dollars and now it is $70-$80. I really hope it goes back up to  $100, but would really like to see $150-$200.

Sorry, that's my bad.  I applied my knowledge of the recent drop to infer context for OP's question.  I also assumed everybody else lived in the same world.


This doesn't make sense.  Objectively, Bitcoin is down from its RECENT rolling average.  Your 1 year/24 hour/year-to-date seemed to be biased in Bitcoin's favor, which is why I suggested it was rationalizing. 

The 24 hour rolling average isn't a RECENT rolling average?  Your monthly rolling average seems to be biased against bitcoin, which is why I suggested it was rationalizing.

It clearly dropped significantly (~30%) in the past two weeks, trying to play around with different time periods doesn't hide that fact.  the question here is why?  If there's no meaningful news, that doesn't say much for long term stability that the price can suddenly drop for no apparent reason.

The price will always change

Unless of course the exchange rate was over inflated two weeks ago and has simply returned to a sustainable value?

Very,very,very optimist and very conversation maker. U go the conversation where you want to.
You dont speak the truth.
We have a decrease right now. We are talking about NOW, not the past.
In the past The world was better too, now is it better? ROFL.

Relax mate. Speak the truth. Bitcoin got dropped 2 times in a row 30-50% of its innitial price.
from $200 to $120 and from $120 to $70 in just MONTHS. Not years.
Relax mate.

Don't worry, just thank God and buy cheap coins while this opportunity is open to you.
Bitcoin is volatile thing. It always goes up or down when a BIG player buys/sells large amounts. Then, add some "manipulation" and volatility goes even higher.
But remember that bitcoin has deflationary nature, which means it only gains in price over time (in long term).

To be successful bitcoiner just stick to a simple rule - Be patient and never sell for a lesser price than you bought  ;)

I don't believe it is possible to cure cognitive dissonance via a discussion forum.  If you can see the arbitrary nature of my examples, but not the arbitrary nature of your own, I give up.

That is at least a reason.  so, following this approach, assuming the recent prices are an aboration and we now seeing a correction, where do you see the price falling to?  mid 40's? mid 30's?  longer term trend would suggest under 20.

It seems that Bitcoin is like any other item based on demand, it goes up and down in price.

I never thought of that. Well I hope more people are in demand for it soon.

Look at Apple's stock. It was at one point over $600, it is now under $420 a share. Different factors affect it's price, just like that of bit coin.

I think ASICS miner did it.

OK I just joined in with the bears, emptied my wallet and sold all at ~73 USD on BTC-e. (Don't worry, the cold wallet's still intact - you'd have to pry that literally out of my dead hand.) Let's see if I can buy back at a lower price - either BTC or LTC - or whether I'll be left "holding the bag". :P

Because it was too high.

We all know bitcoin has next to no real value in the real world with little to spend on and although we determine the price I think it's far too easy for people with a lot of money to play the bitcoin god and determine where it goes for us.

 ???

Then I have to sell all my coins.

Here's the thing: usually with a significant price movement, up or down, you can find reasons behind them.  Apple has dropped in part due to profit taking, part due to corporate management changes, part due to lack of (visible) new product pipeline, part no longer the "it" stock.  all have varying degrees of impact.  

With the current Bitcoin exchange rate, there's no obvious explanation for recent price direction.  After blowing off a lot of froth from April, theres been a spell of steady price changes.  Then off a small cliff, for no apparent reason.

Of course, there *is* another side to this, as exchange rates are reflections of both sides strengths and weakness, it could be that mainstream currencies have improved their value...  any takers for that?

I really hope it goes up to over a $1,000 a coin soon. I would like t to go down to about $10 for a short time to buy a bunch first though, LOL.

Too many seller than buyers. That's the fact.

I'm kind of new to bitcoin so this may be kind of stupid to ask, how does the prices go up and down isn't there always gonna be the same amout of bitcoins?

No, the amount of bitcoins is increasing every minutes (not every minute actually, ...).

There is still some inflation, until the supply reaches just shy of BTC21 million in about 127 years' time. Even with a steady supply, price is determined by demand (bid versus ask volume) at the margins. If bitcoin is truly to gain traction, the long-term trend has to be very bullish of course. But Bitcoin can fail and its price can fall to zero.

Bitcoins can become permanently lost if someone doesn't back up their wallet and their computer crashes.  So, while the bitcoins will continue to exist, they will have been removed from circulation and shouldn't have any effect on the exchange rate.  This can reduce the supply in circulation.

25 brand new bitcoins also come into existence every time a new block is added to the blockchain by a miner.  This happens approximately once every 10 minutes on average.  This can increase the supply in circulation.

In addition, people can further reduce the supply in circulation by taking bitcoins that they've received and storing them long term with no intent to use them.

Others who already have bitcoins in long term storage can increase the supply in circulation by changing their minds and using the bitcoins that they had originally intended not to use.

This.  If more people want bitcoins from the fixed amount available, the price will rise.  If fewer people want them, the price will drop.

Probably because ASIC miners are dumping btc like there's no tomorrow.

More sellers then buyers is short answer to this

I think maybe the following 3 reasons adding up.

• Mt Gox usd withdraws resumed
• Less "buzz" about bitcoin lately because it's been awhile since the peak at 250
• Some ASIC miners might be in a rush to get the money they invested back, ie they're rushing to "ROI" them, and selling coins

What to do about it?
We need more users !
Buy USB "Block Eruptor" Miners from CanaryInTheMine.  Start mining with them, and try to sell them to tech savvy friends asap !

Here's the US Group buy thread from CanaryInTheMine...
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=251851.0[/color][/b]
Now get to it!  :) :) :)

Sellers did it.

Mass psychology.  That is the biggest factor playing out on the rise and fall of BTC.

lots of people panic sold.

It's easy to underestimate the effects of this apparent irrationality in markets, I have to accept.

Im not sure why the price dropped..

Stupid Panic Sellers!

I think it's all the people with ASICs that want to sell their coins, because they are in debt.

ASICs miners selling their coins everyday to make quick cash.

I think it simply because it jumped too high.

It dropped because the price was inflated to begin with. 4-5 months ago the price was in the $40s. It rose on asic/fpga over-speculation and now that they are actually hitting the network the price is coming back down to more appropriate levels.

i agree

I think because mtgox stopped withdrawal USD for 14 days, now its open and bitcoin going up.

The USD block killed the confidence temporarily.

ASICs miners did it.

Nope dont know sorry

I don't think it's dropped. It's ok for me. just kidding. Now buying

You should sell now and waiting for a correction

 ???

Are you crazy?

I don't think only ASIC's miners did it.

The price went down 'cause people tried to sell too much too soon/too fast or for too cheap.

As bitcoin is something people invest in, recently it went back up because the DJI is at an all time high and everything follows that in at least some sense because it is used as a measurement of how well the world economy is doing. The other thing bringing it down, is that it was due for a 50% correction from the top since it bubbled and the trend after that has been for it to go down because there hasn't been enough volume for it to break past the resistance. I think it is trying to even itself out and find a stable price before investors get back in. Bitcoin has bubbled twice already and I think people might not wait too long to get back in before the next bubble.

Because BTC isn't a real currency yet. And thus the confidence goes down and up, as people are unsure if it's gonna change the world or we gonna forget about it a year from now.

What in your opinion is required for somthing to be called "a real currency"?

I posted what I think is a decent response to this question on Quora recently:

http://www.quora.com/Bitcoin/Is-bitcoin-crashing-as-of-early-July-2013

The long and short of it, is that you can find all sorts of reasons for it, some of them are pretty believable, but in the end, even more so than in most places, it's all just conjecture, and humans tricking themselves into thinking this is knowable.

Ultimately, the price dropped because people started paying less for it.

A friend and I came to the conclusion that there were multiple issues:
  - Mtgox
  - Asic Block Eruptor (Marking the death of GPU Mining)
  - GPU Miners moved out of bitcoins and towards altcoins
  - A massive increase in Mh across multiple networks (Mainly due to the increase of general hardware)
  - Small ASIC scares throughout key media (Things includes forums, reddit, blogs ect..)
  - ASIC Miners flooding the market with a bigger supply (goes along with the increase in Mh across multiple networks

All these theories are enough to cause a bubble to deflate a bit, but as you can see right now, all of these issues were pointless because the coins are back at around $90-$100.

Price don't matter.... Question is did you buy / sell at the correct points?

The last month has done me well. Crypto is the future and next couple years will see many changes and mass adoption of smaller countries.

You should be holding as much BTC or favourite Alt as you can afford and don't be put off by minor dips. They are there to shake out the weak holders so we can have your coins cheap!

If holders don't sell so low the price will go up. If holders want to drive the price down they will sell cheap and buy out the panic sellers.

As said before, never sell them cheaper than you bought them.. If we all follow this the price will go up fast and that is what all the holders want ;-)

I think with Bitinstant suddenly coming to an essential standstill, leaving a lot of people (myself included) out of luck when it came to getting bitcoin. Now I hear that coinbase is going to start offering instant bitcoin purchases for level 2 members, so that might help drive the price up a bit more as trade picks up.

1st post here, but can't resist an opinion (which is all any of have).

If you are prepared to spend thousands on hardware to mine you must have a long term mindset.
IF you mine to spend the coins right away you will probably kick yourself in years to come.
I don't think BTC will ever be a choice of payment system for the average person because the average person can have trouble trusting and understanding Paypal so it's going to be too much for them as it works now. However there are enough uses and users (and speculators) to make sure it grows and probably rises in value.
Example, the 1st purchase I am told was 2 pizzas? Value of coins back then was insignificant because they were easy to mine. Now..it's hundreds of thousands of dollars value. Tell that guy that they fell in value :)

Even when the value is so volatile and rises and falls tens of dollars over days it's a chance to make money trading them ...yesterday a rise of over 10 dollars with leverage would have left you laughing. It left me a bit miffed, only because I only saw it when it had already happened.

I'm sure I'm not alone in thinking that in a few years time people who kept hold of as many as possible will be happy with the decision...but it's a gamble that you need to do your own DD on and make a decision based on that (knowing that the future could be painful if you're wrong).

Basically my view is:-
Mine for the long term gains. (Lower risk, easier to research)
Trade for the short term gains. (High risk, hard to research and basically gambling)

What I can't figure is why anyone with no confidence in BTC being somehow more valuable in the future is doing involved with them?

Something that has a stable value, can be used to buy almost anything and can be used to store wealth long-term. Bitcoin currently doesn't meet any of these criteria.
Don't get me wrong, I'm very excited about BTC and definitely want it to become a mainstream currency, but these speculators are currently the biggest problem with Bitcoin, that keeps it from mainstream adoption.

The volatility is normal. The price of petroleum was that volatile after its initial discovery. Volatility goes away due to increased market depth. That will happen with bitcoin.

It's dropped for huge sellers and less buyers. Just now it is climbing up.

I really hope that will happen.

all the way to 1000 please :D

ASIC's  >:(

it going back up now

by the end of july bitcoin willl easily reach 100$

Doesn't matter what kinda currency it is...all go up and down. When the buyers will step in again the price will go up again as they did a few days ago. Is that a change in trend or just a pullback in a down trend is yet to be seen.

it needs to get momentum

Speculators are crucial to speedy price discovery. The degree to which they correctly forecast the equilibrium price (granted it is always changing based on changes in individual's values) is the degree to which the good reaches the equilibrium price in a timely manner. Even when the speculators find themselves in error, whether it be speculators buying or selling the good, the surpluses and scarcities created in their erroneous forecasts drives the price to equilibrium.

Murray Rothbard has a great section on speculation in his book Man, Economy, and State, which is available for free through the Mises Institute.
Chapter 2, section 7: Speculation and Supply and Demand Schedules

Here's the link to the book: http://mises.org/document/1082/Man-Economy-and-State-with-Power-and-Market

Because liberte Reserve down  ;)

I think the fact that the price droppes was because of the new ASIC's miners getting released if obvious that they had to do it or the people with ASIC's would get too much profit, but the BTC price is on the raise again since they also raised the difficulty factor to balance out the new ASIC's, the only bad thing about this, GPU mining is not viable anymore

Market being flooded with coins resulting from the difficulty readjustment lagging behind the increase in hashing power resulting from the release of new asic technologies. Thats my theory at-least.

Because of many sellers

Because increase of sellers... ???

bitcoin price is chillin

slowly rising, might be due for a crash soon

BTC price dropped for ASICS miners.

To many sellers.

Every miners selling their coins instantly.

Absolutely.  It`s economics.

Because bitcoins are based on random speculation so they will increase and decrease as their perceived value increases and decreases.

Because we lost our confident on BTC.

Personally i think the volatility is a boon. I do get pissed when I miss out on an opportunity but at the same time that's the name of the game. It's the up and down that makes trading in BTC so viable. If it were as stable as other currencies or trading assets then there would be far less trading and transactions with BTC. People don't trade stable assets, they trade when the value goes up or down so the volatility, I think, is what makes BTC such a great commodity.

ASICs miners did it.

Bitcoin price dropped for hit high again.

There are many peoples selling bitcoin so they price goes down.

It's dropped for new buyers. We want to buy some coins with cheap rate.

It will hit $200 again. But we have to wait few months.

BTC dropped for huge miners and many new mining devices.

It's quite stable recently actually (see below). Not sure why it dropped back in April, I'm a n00b after all.

http://thegenesisblock.com/bitcoin-volatility-and-volume-approach-2013-lows-despite-compromised-security-of-tor-browser/
http://bitcoinmagazine.com/is-100-the-new-5-how-the-post-bubble-decline-may-already-be-over/

All profitable mining devices did it.

I'm new in this community. So, don't know when it was dropped. I think current price is good to buy.

$260 per Bitcoin was too high so, it's dropped.

It is very difficult to say, why price dropped.

I do agree with you. BTC price is good now. Only peoples bought it at high rate are looser now.

BTC price was very high last month. It's not dropped. Right now BTC price is stable.

As soon as ASICs miner released BTC price dropped for huge sellers. Everyone started mining BTC and sold to get quick cash.

Everyday bitcoin price changing, I don't think there is any specific reason for dropping BTC.

Actually every think depending on the news about bitcoin. When people think the price will go down they sell it and price goes down, when people think it will go up they buy it and goes up.  :)

Bitcoin price never dropped. It was unstable at $200+. Now it is stable and good. I always want bitcoin price stay stable.

It fluctuate like any other currency (stock) as people loose or gain interest or trust)

1BTC125 CDN on caVirtex

It could be for a multitude of reasons. The price fluctuates constantly

Bitcoin price dropped because of lot of new miners. Within few week there are many mining devices released and bitcoin mining was more profitable with these new mining devices. So, people sold their bitcoin to get into cash.

its on the rise now...

Your answer is 100% right. People loose trust on btc and started selling. That's why btc price dropped.

Because loose trust on this coin and started selling.

Bitcoin price always good. Within few months we got many new mining devices and mined lot of coins. To get huge profit we started selling our newly mined coins, everyone did it and price goes down and down.

Bitcoin price dropped for me. lol

Yes I bought few coins at $80.

Bitcoin price dropped for easy mining with new devices. The difficulty always control the price of Bitcoin.

I hope it drops a bit more. Willing to invest, but I'd prefer a lower price when I buy :P

Thread owner is inactive for long time. So, why people posting here?

People discussing about the thread not with the thread owner. There are many members watching this thread.

Bitcoin price dropped because new mining devices rapped it.

It's not dropped for first time. We seen several times it's dropped and rise again. People making money from this movement.

Don't think it will drop again.