Bitcoin Forum

Economy => Speculation => Topic started by: jmutch on July 09, 2013, 03:12:34 AM



Title: Your speculative thoughts on the 80USD sell wall.
Post by: jmutch on July 09, 2013, 03:12:34 AM
I'm just intrigued about peoples thoughts on the 80 sell wall on gox. Right now it would cost 800,000 to buy it out. It's an obvious lid on the price of BTC at the moment.

Do you think it's one or two big players?

Is it manipulating the market?

Or is it just a lot of people wanting to get out at a "fair" price?

Will it just suddenly disappear causing an increase in value?

May it get eaten?


Title: Re: Your speculative thoughts on the 80USD sell wall.
Post by: BitChick on July 09, 2013, 03:35:32 AM
I'm just intrigued about peoples thoughts on the 80 sell wall on gox. Right now it would cost 800,000 to buy it out. It's an obvious lid on the price of BTC at the moment.

Do you think it's one or two big players?

Is it manipulating the market?

Or is it just a lot of people wanting to get out at a "fair" price?

Will it just suddenly disappear causing an increase in value?

May it get eaten?

It could be any or all of the above!

It will be interesting to see if it holds very long or if the sellers decide to remove their sell bids if the price inches closer to it.

I have seen walls this big eaten though so it is not insurmountable.


Title: Re: Your speculative thoughts on the 80USD sell wall.
Post by: byronbb on July 09, 2013, 04:26:32 AM
Reminds me of this.....


http://btccharts.com/screenshots/1359610158216.png


Title: Re: Your speculative thoughts on the 80USD sell wall.
Post by: derpinheimer on July 09, 2013, 04:47:20 AM
I'm just intrigued about peoples thoughts on the 80 sell wall on gox. Right now it would cost 800,000 to buy it out. It's an obvious lid on the price of BTC at the moment.

Do you think it's one or two big players?

Is it manipulating the market?

Or is it just a lot of people wanting to get out at a "fair" price?

Will it just suddenly disappear causing an increase in value?

May it get eaten?

It could be any or all of the above!

It will be interesting to see if it holds very long or if the sellers decide to remove their sell bids if the price inches closer to it.

I have seen walls this big eaten though so it is not insurmountable.

This wall was already touched yesterday, and it held firm.

I am really surprised it hasnt been eaten TBH.


Title: Re: Your speculative thoughts on the 80USD sell wall.
Post by: Ares on July 09, 2013, 05:12:58 AM
I'm just intrigued about peoples thoughts on the 80 sell wall on gox. Right now it would cost 800,000 to buy it out. It's an obvious lid on the price of BTC at the moment.

Do you think it's one or two big players?

Is it manipulating the market?

Or is it just a lot of people wanting to get out at a "fair" price?

Will it just suddenly disappear causing an increase in value?

May it get eaten?

It could be any or all of the above!

It will be interesting to see if it holds very long or if the sellers decide to remove their sell bids if the price inches closer to it.

I have seen walls this big eaten though so it is not insurmountable.

This wall was already touched yesterday, and it held firm.

I am really surprised it hasnt been eaten TBH.
Me too, slightly, as there's definitely people waiting on the sideline with the means to do so. The only real explanation is that they aren't confident enough that the downtrend is over. The buy side is becoming more and more inverted and I suspect once that becomes large enough we will see that 80 gone in a single buy order.


Title: Re: Your speculative thoughts on the 80USD sell wall.
Post by: BitChick on July 09, 2013, 05:16:35 AM
I'm just intrigued about peoples thoughts on the 80 sell wall on gox. Right now it would cost 800,000 to buy it out. It's an obvious lid on the price of BTC at the moment.

Do you think it's one or two big players?

Is it manipulating the market?

Or is it just a lot of people wanting to get out at a "fair" price?

Will it just suddenly disappear causing an increase in value?

May it get eaten?

It could be any or all of the above!

It will be interesting to see if it holds very long or if the sellers decide to remove their sell bids if the price inches closer to it.

I have seen walls this big eaten though so it is not insurmountable.

This wall was already touched yesterday, and it held firm.

I am really surprised it hasnt been eaten TBH.
Me too, slightly, as there's definitely people waiting on the sideline with the means to do so. The only real explanation is that they aren't confident enough that the downtrend is over. The buy side is becoming more and more inverted and I suspect once that becomes large enough we will see that 80 gone in a single buy order.

It wish I was the one who could afford to buy the 5000 BTC at 80 right now! ;)  I don't have any extra cash to invest during this downturn.  Hubby has big vacation plans this Summer though so no extra money for us.  The worst part is thinking about the fact that if BTC takes off, that is one VERY expensive vacation we are taking.  If we only invested in more BTC who knows what kind of trip we could take next year!  Sigh.  He is not as convinced as me.  I guess I am the risk taker in the family.


Title: Re: Your speculative thoughts on the 80USD sell wall.
Post by: Coinseeker on July 09, 2013, 05:25:49 AM
This wall will continue to hold.  We've already hit this wall and even took a decent sized bite out of it and it didn't budge.  My guess is this downturn is far from over.  5k ask wall is nothing if people want to buy back in.  The fact is, people don't want to buy back in...they are anticipating more selloffs soon.  And fundamentally, nothing has changed to say they are wrong.


Title: Re: Your speculative thoughts on the 80USD sell wall.
Post by: Ares on July 09, 2013, 07:39:00 AM
This wall will continue to hold.  We've already hit this wall and even took a decent sized bite out of it and it didn't budge.  My guess is this downturn is far from over.  5k ask wall is nothing if people want to buy back in.  The fact is, people don't want to buy back in...they are anticipating more selloffs soon.  And fundamentally, nothing has changed to say they are wrong.

A whole lot has changed to say they're wrong.

Here's some headlines from the bitcoin reddit RIGHT NOW:

  • "Kipochi brings Bitcoin to Africa through M-Pesa"
  • "First German Bank Get In Bitcoin. On Wednesday!"
  • "Jon Matonis named new director of Bitcoin Foundation"
  • "I can't wait" (leetcoin.com)" -You may have to be a gamer to understand the vast implications of this in the massive casual and competitive gaming circuit
  • "HMRC: UK bitcoin exchanges don’t have to register under money laundering regulations"


Again, this is only RIGHT NOW on reddit. The first on that list has the potential to be the greatest advancement in Bitcoin since it began.


Title: Re: Your speculative thoughts on the 80USD sell wall.
Post by: steelboy on July 09, 2013, 07:56:44 AM
This wall will continue to hold.  We've already hit this wall and even took a decent sized bite out of it and it didn't budge.  My guess is this downturn is far from over.  5k ask wall is nothing if people want to buy back in.  The fact is, people don't want to buy back in...they are anticipating more selloffs soon.  And fundamentally, nothing has changed to say they are wrong.

A whole lot has changed to say they're wrong.

Here's some headlines from the bitcoin reddit RIGHT NOW:

  • "Kipochi brings Bitcoin to Africa through M-Pesa"
  • "First German Bank Get In Bitcoin. On Wednesday!"
  • "Jon Matonis named new director of Bitcoin Foundation"
  • "I can't wait" (leetcoin.com)" -You may have to be a gamer to understand the vast implications of this in the massive casual and competitive gaming circuit
  • "HMRC: UK bitcoin exchanges don’t have to register under money laundering regulations"


Again, this is only RIGHT NOW on reddit. The first on that list has the potential to be the greatest advancement in Bitcoin since it began.

Thanks for those articles. i hadn't seen any of them. :)


Title: Re: Your speculative thoughts on the 80USD sell wall.
Post by: Frozenlock on July 09, 2013, 08:05:30 AM
The wall is selling itself in the bids.

http://www.blockchained.com/depth_mtgox_15d.png


Title: Re: Your speculative thoughts on the 80USD sell wall.
Post by: steelboy on July 09, 2013, 08:27:42 AM
How do you get to these walls on gox?


Title: Re: Your speculative thoughts on the 80USD sell wall.
Post by: Coinseeker on July 09, 2013, 09:17:14 AM
This wall will continue to hold.  We've already hit this wall and even took a decent sized bite out of it and it didn't budge.  My guess is this downturn is far from over.  5k ask wall is nothing if people want to buy back in.  The fact is, people don't want to buy back in...they are anticipating more selloffs soon.  And fundamentally, nothing has changed to say they are wrong.

A whole lot has changed to say they're wrong.

Here's some headlines from the bitcoin reddit RIGHT NOW:

  • "Kipochi brings Bitcoin to Africa through M-Pesa"
  • "First German Bank Get In Bitcoin. On Wednesday!"
  • "Jon Matonis named new director of Bitcoin Foundation"
  • "I can't wait" (leetcoin.com)" -You may have to be a gamer to understand the vast implications of this in the massive casual and competitive gaming circuit
  • "HMRC: UK bitcoin exchanges don’t have to register under money laundering regulations"


Again, this is only RIGHT NOW on reddit. The first on that list has the potential to be the greatest advancement in Bitcoin since it began.

Nothing on this list will affect Bitcoin in time to stop this downtrend and the only thing even noteworthy IMO, is the first one and that could be months at the earliest.  Thus, fundamentally nothing has changed and as of this posting, the markets seem to agree as we're heading down again, having just touched 73.  Frozenlock, potentially, has called the H&S spot on.  We'll see if it fully manifests.


Title: Re: Your speculative thoughts on the 80USD sell wall.
Post by: BitPirate on July 09, 2013, 10:27:27 AM
The price seems to be beginning to show more resilience to large sell-offs, despite the large wall harshing the bull-buzz. I'm seeing lots of people selling as soon as the price recovers close to $80, but there (so far) hasn't been significant downward pressure.

If we haven't reached the bottom, we are not far from it.


Title: Re: Your speculative thoughts on the 80USD sell wall.
Post by: lucas.sev on July 09, 2013, 11:06:29 AM
The price seems to be beginning to show more resilience to large sell-offs, despite the large wall harshing the bull-buzz. I'm seeing lots of people selling as soon as the price recovers close to $80, but there (so far) hasn't been significant downward pressure.

If we haven't reached the bottom, we are not far from it.

Its just 100-110 all over again. Then it dropped to 64 :)


Title: Re: Your speculative thoughts on the 80USD sell wall.
Post by: BitPirate on July 09, 2013, 11:08:57 AM
The price seems to be beginning to show more resilience to large sell-offs, despite the large wall harshing the bull-buzz. I'm seeing lots of people selling as soon as the price recovers close to $80, but there (so far) hasn't been significant downward pressure.

If we haven't reached the bottom, we are not far from it.

Its just 100-110 all over again. Then it dropped to 64 :)

Nice story man.

Irrelevant story though.



Title: Re: Your speculative thoughts on the 80USD sell wall.
Post by: JimboToronto on July 09, 2013, 11:35:29 AM
Oooh... the big bad $80 sell wall.

At the moment it will take about twice as many coins to drive the price all the way down to $70 as it will to break $80.

The numbers to get to $60 and $90 are in a similar ratio, over 140,000BTC to get to $60 and less than 80,000BTC to reach $90.

Sentiment has obviously turned since a week or so ago when the ratio was reversed.

Don't let trollbear fudspammers get you down. They're only trying to find people foolish enough to take them seriously. This is a great opportunity to add to your holdings while the price is artificially low. Just understand that the whole concept of hoarding is anathema to speculators, whose whole existence revolves around frantically buying and selling. Simply ignore them.



Title: Re: Your speculative thoughts on the 80USD sell wall.
Post by: samson on July 09, 2013, 11:46:07 AM
The price seems to be beginning to show more resilience to large sell-offs, despite the large wall harshing the bull-buzz. I'm seeing lots of people selling as soon as the price recovers close to $80, but there (so far) hasn't been significant downward pressure.

If we haven't reached the bottom, we are not far from it.

Its just 100-110 all over again. Then it dropped to 64 :)

It sure is. There's a lot of 'denial' going on here. The April high was only three months ago and the deflation period could easily last for another three months or more.

This looks like one of the occasional blips that we'll see on the way down to the eventual bottom, exactly like the rise from $100-$115 between June 18th to June 28th. It will be interesting to see how long this one lasts for.

Sentiment will be very different when we hit the true bottom.

When we hit the bottom it should stay there or thereabouts for some period of time, not just days.

My thoughts on this are if we stop going down and the price starts to rally in any significant way (5-10% or more) within a short period of time after the new low then we're not really at the bottom. That's just wishful thinking.


Title: Re: Your speculative thoughts on the 80USD sell wall.
Post by: lucas.sev on July 09, 2013, 12:46:15 PM
The price seems to be beginning to show more resilience to large sell-offs, despite the large wall harshing the bull-buzz. I'm seeing lots of people selling as soon as the price recovers close to $80, but there (so far) hasn't been significant downward pressure.

If we haven't reached the bottom, we are not far from it.

Its just 100-110 all over again. Then it dropped to 64 :)

It sure is. There's a lot of 'denial' going on here. The April high was only three months ago and the deflation period could easily last for another three months or more.

This looks like one of the occasional blips that we'll see on the way down to the eventual bottom, exactly like the rise from $100-$115 between June 18th to June 28th. It will be interesting to see how long this one lasts for.

Sentiment will be very different when we hit the true bottom.

When we hit the bottom it should stay there or thereabouts for some period of time, not just days.

My thoughts on this are if we stop going down and the price starts to rally in any significant way (5-10% or more) within a short period of time after the new low then we're not really at the bottom. That's just wishful thinking.


Yup its very funny how people say we approach fear, still a long way to go  :)


Title: Re: Your speculative thoughts on the 80USD sell wall.
Post by: bitcon on July 09, 2013, 02:58:07 PM
What do you guys think about the dead cat?


Title: Re: Your speculative thoughts on the 80USD sell wall.
Post by: derpinheimer on July 09, 2013, 03:05:18 PM
Oooh... the big bad $80 sell wall.

At the moment it will take about twice as many coins to drive the price all the way down to $70 as it will to break $80.

The numbers to get to $60 and $90 are in a similar ratio, over 140,000BTC to get to $60 and less than 80,000BTC to reach $90.

Sentiment has obviously turned since a week or so ago when the ratio was reversed.

Don't let trollbear fudspammers get you down. They're only trying to find people foolish enough to take them seriously. This is a great opportunity to add to your holdings while the price is artificially low. Just understand that the whole concept of hoarding is anathema to speculators, whose whole existence revolves around frantically buying and selling. Simply ignore them.



You are crazy to think there would be anything other than a ratio hugely in favor of the bid side. Are you too stupid to realize almost all sells are market orders not previously in the orderbook? Bids are the opposite.
Also, you must be looking at some combined orderbook, because 90 is 28k and 60 is 32k.

90 is 2.4mill. 60 is 2.16mill

What a horrible uneven orderbook!




Title: Re: Your speculative thoughts on the 80USD sell wall.
Post by: JimboToronto on July 09, 2013, 05:08:13 PM
you must be looking at some combined orderbook


http://bitcointicker.co/


Title: Re: Your speculative thoughts on the 80USD sell wall.
Post by: derpinheimer on July 09, 2013, 05:54:31 PM
you must be looking at some combined orderbook


http://bitcointicker.co/

Doesnt make sense.

What is it doing to determine depth? Predict future offers? Trying to merge MtGoxEUR etc... wouldnt offer too much more depth..

So what is it?


Title: Re: Your speculative thoughts on the 80USD sell wall.
Post by: BitChick on July 09, 2013, 06:51:45 PM
There is now an 8000 BTC buy wall at $76.  :) We will see how long that is up but it should push prices up for a while.


Title: Re: Your speculative thoughts on the 80USD sell wall.
Post by: BitChick on July 09, 2013, 06:52:55 PM
And the 8000 BTC buy wall is already gone!  :(  Oh well . . .