Bitcoin Forum

as proven by its history before june, bitcoins' price will drop off unless there is big influx of new committed users.

bitcoins is already all over the press - people who would hear of it would have already done so.

unless there is some big new development that proves bitcoins can have exciting new users, people will become inactive and its users will drop off.

in fact the slow drop has already started as we all now witness.

I think posts like this should have to come with a firm offer to sell (or buy) call options. Just get rich if you know the future.

spec·u·la·tion

[spek-yuh-ley-shuhn]
–noun

1. the contemplation or consideration of some subject: to engage in speculation on humanity's ultimate destiny.

2. a single instance or process of consideration.

3. a conclusion or opinion reached by such contemplation: These speculations are impossible to verify.

—Synonyms

3.  supposition, view, theory, hypothesis.

For the various other blockchains that are building reserves of BTC with which to "support" their own coins' value, a declining price of BTC sounds good, as obtaining the "reserves" they want would become cheaper over time.

There are plenty of people who love seeing the price of BTC dip as it gives them yet another opportunity to pick up some more BTC at time-relatively "bargain" prices.

-MarkM-

yet another noob pulling shit out of their ass and spouting it around as truth.

The problem is that bitcoin is not really mobile friendly - you need to wait an hour on average to have the transaction confirmed - this is OK for online stores but is useless for mobile payments.

Proven by history? Take a logics class!

I agree with the original poster. I see the price slowly dropping off. Interest will soon get lower as mining is just not worth it.
Speculators will soon leave when they see there will be no fast easy cash to make with bitcoin.

Re-read, with particular attention to "directly hooks into an exchange".

If you don't have an account at an exchange but you don't want to wait for your beer, open an account at an exchange before heading out to the pub (or while waiting for confirms on your first beer order). Any exchange that fails to join the exchange-to-exchange SWIFT - uh I mean fast - private network so their customers can get quick service at retailers using any exchange on that private network might just not be the favourite exchange, at least for retail purchasing applications, of most retail-shopper types.

-MarkM-

If the OP was right, bitcoin would be a ponzi scheme by definition. But it isn't. It's a logical fallacy. New people made bitcoin value rise, but lack of new people does not need to make it decrease.

To get bitcoin have value, businesses must be started.

HA!


HAHA!
You are around 17-20 years old, right?

Calista is a troll.

The only thing decreasing is the parent posters remaining time here.

Remember, bitcoins are inflating now at ~40% annually (new BTCs being minted at 0.08 BTC/s).  If the demand stayed constant we would see prices decreasing accordingly with this increasing supply.  It the price stays relatively constant it means the demand is increasing.   

he's right and you all are too invested in this stuff to believe it

I am not. I am not here for the money. I am here for the fun!

This is the same person who supposedly has issues with bitcoin because they are a christian....

calista said I would go to hell if I bought or mined for bitcoins because it's in the bible

Let's see a reasoned argument to the OPs logic instead of the usual insults flying.

He has a point. Just look at the price. Static for a couple of weeks. I thought it would be back to climbing by now but doesn't look to be the case.

Mining has become unprofitable, holders are still hoarding and no speculator will invest more than a couple hundred quid in case it becomes worthless.

I think the idea that BTC will be worth 10x within months is now ridiculous.

If mining was unprofitable, wouldn't you expect the global Tera-hash capacity to decline?

I just checked, its hanging around the 12 THash level. I recall it being under 9 when I first got into bitcoin.

Just wait a few months until countries like China and Vietnam start really waking up to bitcoin. Then we'll see truly insane hashrate increases and MAD price hops. China is starting to wake up (I'm located here but not native) to bitcoin and even has a few tiny pools and an exchange. In countries like these that have draconian banking regulations Bitcoin is the way of the future. The second it really catches on here the sky's the limit particularly with VPNs and proxies becoming more and more easily available so you can even hash from behind one if bitcoin gets blocked by "the great firewall".

Ok for the rest of us it means higher difficulties really quickly but this is really bringing a free market to China.

Oh and BTW maybe someone should point that out to some of those anti bitcoin senators who seem to have real issues with China at the same time.

Who cares Calista? 

Thanks for the head's up.  I am going to spend all my coins on drugs, kiddie porn and funding terrorism before the value plummets. 

That's no contradiction, being a christian you declare being ready to believe absolutely anything. :)

I think mining is still moving right along, the difficulty keeps rising, its not getting flooded with new miners but most are still mining.  I see more businesses openinig up, better information about bitcoins, and easier to spend and transfer bitcoins coming, that should get this thing up, especially after outside of USA picks up on it hard core.  BUY NOW. SELLL LATER

No one knows the future. 

Your scenerio may play out.  Or there may be a sudden surge of interest in bitcoin by people that want to transfer money across borders hassle-free.  Or maybe the entire underground economy will run on bitcoins.

Or maybe it will be a flash in the pan, and everyone gives up on it next week.

If you can predict the future slightly better than what you would expect by chance, via the compounding effect, you will become the richest person in the world within a few years.

Which proves that no one can predict the future, otherwise they would be as rich as Bill Gates right now.

Yeah - but then you lose all the decentralization benefits that are the raison d'etre of bitcoin.  Maybe this is the way to go - some compromise, a bit more complexity but much more robust and universal system.  This could work especially well if married to the e-cash system http://finney.org/~hal/chcash2.html.

Exactly... We've been here before guys.  Just chill the fuck out.

We have just had about 4 of the worst things (except for the collapse in the block) to happen:

1. Mt Gox was hacked that had over 95% market share in trades, everyones email address exposed to the net and fraudulently reported by media as death of bitcoin.

2. 25,000 coin heist.

3. 2 trojans discovered.

4. Anti-bitcoin pumpers/dumpers and fights on youtube.

I would expect bitcoin should have gone to 5 with this news.   However, it remained strong and as Jim Rogers always says when you hit a string of bad news and the price does not drop further you are near the bottom.

As for comparing it to a year ago is really foolish technical analysis.

The New York Times article is going to result in a lot of new people coming in this week. If you want Bitcoins, now is the time to buy them.

I agree, where will the next suckers come from? 
Especially after all the hacks, thefts, ultra bad press, government threats, convoluted geek centric system, etc etc.


........................Nowhere.


and you .....left holding the bag.

Yeah, anyone holding dollars is going to be in for a rude awakening...

Still think government-backed treasuries and massive debt won't result in a 'restructuring'? Keep on dreaming, pal.

And if you don't care for bitcoin, why are you even here? Or is this your after-work troll time.

Market sentiment is down which I think is going to definitely harm the BTC market.  A crash is not out of the question at this point.  Unlike anything we have ever seen before (hack excluded).

We're keeping the price low so that all the trolls can get out  :o

It's not import that there are so many bad news and bears, but that how many believers still there after the bad news. Unlike the bear market, people don't agree with the meanings of the recent bad news.

 Most of the adopters DO realize that the bitcoin itself have nothing with this bad news,  some of them still have very strong faith. Actually, most of them just invest money like 1000 dollars or what, it won't hurt much if they just hold some bitcoin in their hand.

Those most vulnerable doubters has already sold out after the first crash, and the slow price down trend will hurt other doubters. As time pass by, the price maybe even lower, but the number of adopters increased.

As all you see in the forum, some talent payment system start to emerge and replace the sodding ones like mybitcoin. I've already see the coming of some payment tools that is trustworthy and ready to go for average merchants, in the comming months.

Well, at that time, the price will start to rise slowly again. Those doubters, who have been selling the bitcoin, will always be a doubter. They will doubt their judge made around the beginning of July and start to purchase back the bitcoin again, most likely higher price than they sell it at now, that's where the price will hit them to make another vulnerable decision, "I should have hold the bitcoins, now what I should do? yes, I should buy it back". With the new adopters joining in and the doubter coming back, the price will be rally as crazy as we've seen 1 month ago.

 the price of bitcoin will continue this fluctuation in the near future, a lot of people will be doing this sell-low-then-buying-high job.

Nevertheless, these speculators supply with the bitcoin community with extra liquidity, which the fundamental of some payment service like bit-pay.com. They are good for bitcoin.

Market sentiment is up which I think is going to definitely improve the BTC market.  A rally is not out of the question at this point.  Unlike anything we have ever seen before (exceeding parity excluded).

Enough with the cliched Reddit-speak. I've never seen the word "troll" used so often till I came here. Apparently, anyone who isn't verbally fellating Mt. Gox or the concept of Bitcoins is "trolling". The only folks who live under a bridge are the ones who are too blind to see the obvious shortcomings of the Bitcoin system and are doing nothing to try and correct them.

Poor security arrangement for the Bitcoin client? Ignore it. Poor security at Mt. Gox? Blame the victims.

Come on, folks. Bitcoin can work, but it isn't going to if these basic, basic points aren't addressed.

The internet sucked until it didn't, too.

I agree with some of the sentiment in this thread that if you believe your prediction of the future has an edge, just trade it, and don't share it with the forum, but at the same time I can't help but find truth in what OP said. 

Bitcoin doesn't expand markets, it's most valuable attribute is that it's decentralized and can purchase things under the radar.  The value of doing business in another currency is expanding into that currency's market.  There is not a person alive that only has bitcoins, and no other method for payment, so unless we can make it ridiculously simple for users to obtain and secure their bitcoins, vendors will have no incentive to accept them. 

On top of that there is constant downward pressure on bitcoin price because the majority of those who spent money on mining systems are miners, not speculators.  They sell daily/weekly/monthly at market price.  They want to pay down their initial investment and are not interested in riding the wave.  But that said, price will reach a level attractive to buyers/speculators who are already interested in bitcoin, and miners drop-out every time the difficulty is increased, so price will level out. 

The only true money coming into the market is from speculators, and what OP said is correct... we've had a massive wave of publicity, and it's not enough to overcome the downward pressure of miner sell-offs, and $15+ is not sustainable.  In fact, given what I see in the markets today, I am not sure that $10+ is sustainable, but that's purely conjecture not based on any type of real valuation, although I have a trading background and have watched price act the same way over the last few days, a sudden drop of about 5-10%, a leveling out, a failure to find new speculative buyers which has lead to more drops.

To me this suggests that the most valuable service the bitcoin community can provide would be Futures and Options, so that market participants and miners alike can lock-in pricing and help provide more liquidity and keep capital in the markets, otherwise people will be skiddish, and funds will leak out.

Most people don't actually attempt to present Bitcoin's real or perceived shortcomings in anything remotely approaching an intelligent manner. If you want to be taken seriously, you (all of you) should start at least attempting to do so.

Here's a cartoon showing what is going on:

http://img834.imageshack.us/img834/6914/excelsellbyebuy.png

Just replace "a stock" with "bitcoins".

I'm not sure that the  "massive wave" of publicity helped the bitcoin at all since 95% of the articles were negative. Even before the mt Gox incident and the trojans, most were negative. One could argue that pr-wise it almost couldn't get any worse, we could be at the bottom or near it. Sticking with my coins for now in either case...