Bitcoin Forum

Now we seem to have started a rally again and saw a brief spike above 90$, this question:

What will be the (temporarily) top of the market?
This is defined as "value of 1 BTC just before a drop in value with a minimum of 33%".

edit: if you think we will go down very soon, you can still vote in this poll:
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=250909.0

I'm relatively bullish, so with all the good news going on I'm guessing 160$, but actually, I have no clue :P

95, IF we break 90 again. right now it doesn't seem like it, especially considering the walls.

I already sold and am all out, felt the ground was pretty shaky yesterday and got out at 89. I see the top, if we haven't reached it, at 95-96 as that should be pretty key resistance. We could break 100 but I don't think we will break out above it on volume.

If it's a round hill type top (moving average) we've seen the highest price already. If not it could go into the triple digits for a few minutes in a spiky top.

Anybody who isn't a ideological bull and tries to game the difference is crazy. (Ok they both are  :P)

So far it looks like $95 or $500+ :P

Never consider the walls.  The walls are a lie.

yes this.  you saw how fast that fake $80 wall got pulled

Exactly.  Walls serve to attract front runners.  The buyer (who placed the ask wall) waits for enough volume below their wall to accumulate on the books.  He then pulls his wall and buys all of the cheap bitcoins.  Meanwhile, the panic buyers step in and scream OMG, $90 fell!  Buyer sells a few to lock in some profits and then the game starts over once the market has settled.

over 9k :)

do you people read the definition of "top" in this poll?
So you say it will go straight to 9000$ without ever dropping 33% in value?

You've got a point. It's just crazy watching someone with a lot of bankroll manipulating the market... but I guess that's why I also shy away from high stakes poker tables :)

It's just trading.... Manipulation implies they can control it.  They can only exploit opportunities.

What if there is no 33% drop ever again?  ;)

LOL

I wouldn't bet on that ;)


PS: if someone wants to bet on it, we can ;)
I will however not put more than 1 BTC on it.
The problem is that betting against 'never' isn't possible with an escrow (without escrow I need to pay you my 1 BTC and you need to pay me f.e. 2 BTC when the drop happens; with escrow the 1 BTC would forever be locked in the escrow, so we need to put a maximum period on it. let's say f.e. 10 years. But what if the escrow provider dies? (likely in 10 years). So it's impracticle :( )

Then hell has frozen over.

http://bitbet.us/

Betting by just holding my BTC is good enough for me. ;)   I am halfway kidding about it never dropping 33% ever again.  A little part of me always thinks "maybe it will never go down from here!"  For now Bitcoin will probably most likely remain a volatile ride.  

There are going to be more spikes like those we've had. They might shrink over time as the market grows: the 2011 spike was ~90%, the 2012 was about 55% and 2013 was around 66%. This Winter I predict another spike that will be above $300 and crash down below $200 (say, 40%).

Huge wall on the ask? Someone's gonna be buyin'
Huge wall on the bid? Ship's going down, I ain't lyin'

Of course, there are exceptions, such as the time this happened (http://i50.tinypic.com/4jn9g3.png) and someone accidentally let every manipulator under the sun know they wanted to buy $1.7 million USD worth of BTC on September 11th, 2012 (Oh hai twins!), but other than that, obvious buy signals are pretty few and far between. The manipulators aren't the whales and the whales aren't the manipulators, obviously. If you want to put on a tinfoil hat on, too, one could say that maybe that bid wall was merely a signal for an "ownership transfer" of a Yubikey and MtGox account password with USD in it, as the seller of the Bitcoin wanted proof that the cash did indeed exist in the account. As to the legitimacy of the Bitcoin the seller owned and why it couldn't be sold via traditional means... well, but now I've become a conspiracy theorist, haven't I?

I answered 300. I hope to sell at that price.

Now someone will dump at $299. ;) 

As the price goes up I will probably sell a few but I definitely want to keep some for long term in case Bitcoin does increase beyond our wildest dreams.

Predicting spike values/timing is much harder than predicting fundamental pricing. Not even bothering . . .

Inb4 "Where are the 4 figures answers?"  :D