Bitcoin Forum

Wanted to get peoples thoughts on Bitcoin futures and their ideas on the short and long term impact.

Hi,

I think something big is going to happen to BITCOIN. I dont know what it is, but I know for sure one thing, once it happens all people will say "the signals were there, it was easy to read at that moment, but nobody did".

Samething it happened with the tulips fever, The Wall Street Crash of 1929, and the subprime mortgage crisis. Now we know what people did wrong and we wonder "how people didnt see it then?".

It's happening again, and most of the times, its always bad for most of the people.

Be careful.

You are absolutely right.I'm also afraid of the same thing.A possible crash in bitcoin just as it happened in Tulips in 1600s which were too sold in contracts.The price went very high an suddenly crashed when one of the seller was not actually able to deliver the tulips during the end time of the contract.

But i feel sorry for the newbies that they have started to enjoy the price rise and they too may get crashed when bitcoin price gets crashed.

In all the "traditional" commodity markets, if you hold a futures Contract position toooo long you will have to either deliver or take physical delivery of the commodity. 

A commodity is a good or product that can increase or decrease production depending on price.  Traditional commodities supply is not limited except for a limited situation like crops being flooded, crops dying due to a drought, freezing Oranges increase Orange Juice prices.  If pork belly futures makes it very profitible to raise hogs, a farmer will increase piglet purchase at auction.  etc etc etc.

Bitcoin production is constant, with a decreasing supply. (Regardless if profitable or not).  Miners are like Farmers.  No Miner will sell a futures contract to sell his mined coins 3 month out for same price, they will just hold.  Maybe if 3 month futures contract guarantees 30k they would sell a futures contract at 30k 3 months out.   

With traditional commodities you have real business needs on both sides buying and selling futures contracts.  For example a copper wire manufacturer has an annual contract at a fixed price, the manufacturer may Buy a copper futures contract to lock in the raw material price. I can think of no business reason to buy a bitcoin futures contract other than speculation.

The bottom line price is the price people buy and sell on the exchange.  The Killer whales can sell all kinds of contracts so the futures market says bitcoin price will be $10 in 3 months.  If all the bitcoin owners do not sell, exchanges will never see that price and in the end those Killer whales will loose on that contract.

bitcoin futures will allow trading without actually owning any btc.  Technically true, but there is no futures exchange that will let you buy or sell 100 Million worth of bitcoin futures without having millions of dollars on deposit with them.  Real money is still at risk)

Total bitcoin production is constantly declining, total supply is limited.  These qualities are unlike ANY traditional commodities. 

I think commodities will cause more volitile swings in price.  The overall effect of bitcoin futures will just make the long term price trend rise faster and faster.

I think Bitcoin's future will remain brighter, just like the bitcoin is getting a new point of time, do not think any other currency is able to counter bitcoin. Traders are also taking interest in bitcoin to.

As per my contest, i think this is rise up surely . 100000 usd in 2020. But the future always unpredictable. All the big investors are moving to this thats reality.

South Korea banned futures for Bitcoin.  ??? ??? ???
The Financial Services Commission of South Korea (FSC) issued the corresponding directive as early as December 5.
What does it mean? Is South Korea knows something special?

Bitcoin has a brighter future in cryptocurrency as long it was continue increasing it will growing up in the near future .Many people now are interested in bitcoin because of its price that growing up so fast.It will became our next currency in the near future.

It won't. Governments will prosecute it. As soon as it's difficult to buy it or spend it price will go down . It has to be massively adopted, and if it's difficult it won't.

i think in short term, before the market starts its operation the price will continue rising up as we can see right now and it may even break $20,000 soon but after the market started and the hype stopped, also because that would be a bubble by then, we will see a drop happening. possibly a big one too.

in long term however, the price will rise. because these markets were not just hype. they were also some kind of advertisement for bitcoin and most importantly they proved that bitcoin is legal, a legit investment and something that is good to invest in. and that will increase the adoption and since the supply is limited the price will go up in long term more than it usually does.

Bitcoin could replace gold for sure. It only takes time to do so. The price of Bitcoin will increase as well and the more Bitcoin's popular, the higher price bitcoin get.

Then definitely you are taking about the investment whether for long term and short term impact of having bitcoin .
Perosnally I will say that bitcoin is perfect for long term investment Because price of the bitcoin Always increases with the time for long term and from.the old data you can see that price of the bitcoin increase by 10× per year .
If you will buy bitcoin for short term then I don't think that you will have surity that you can make profit by investing in bitcoin Because flcutuations in the bitcoin is much , so if you will invest in the bitcoin then its price may can't give that amount of profit from which you get satisfied .

Thank you for the detailed answer on futures trading.
I'm very interested in this issue. It seems to me that futures are introduced in order not to withdraw money from the banking-exchange system. And soon we will see a conflict between the two systems.

It's really hard to tell what the wall street dudes are thinking about bitcoin right now. One thing is clear though: they don't care about the technology and its disruptive potential, they just want to get rich off of its volatility... This might be dangerous in the short term for the price, but long term i think the hodlers will come out on top.

I think futures markets will have more of a publicity effect than having any major effects on the price itself in the long run. there are still risks involved and people can do the same thing with exchanges already, so they don't necessarily gain anything special from these markets apart from a more secure place to trade bitcoin instead of using these risky and sometimes scammy exchanges.

as I said it is the publicity that matters. when NASDAQ adds bitcoin, nobody can dare call bitcoin "fraud" anymore and even if they do, they will be ridiculed by everyone not just by bitcoiners who understand why that person is saying it.

I think the price is really not high and still very cheap from what I predicted about halving process in bitcoin mining in 2020, maybe the price of bitcoin will now be 100x by 2020, hopefully it really happened