Bitcoin Forum

For the last 3 days the daily fluctuations between highs and lows were becoming narrower and narrower.

https://www.bitstamp.net/
    Last price:$92.29
    Daily change: -$1.49 -1.59%
    Day's range:$90.90 - $93.90
    Today's open:$93.76
    24h volume12023 BTC

There is a lot of tectonic tension and it's going to blow. The only question is, in which direction? My bets, sorry, orders are on "down", but I might be wrong...

So its going up or down, this is an interesting analysis.

low: 89.09 after 350 BTC sell  ;)

Bullish whale on gox
Bearish whale on bitstamp and btce

maybe he is buying at gox and selling at other exchanges

That sell wall got eaten already?!

Buying @100 and selling @90 ? I hope he has a good strategy ;D

Or maybe just a whale cashing out :)

he started to buy at lower price

so we're going to go either up... or either down..

THANK YOU

Well, it's pure speculation. ;D Up or down. Might also be charmed or strange. At least sideways is out of question.

why some people seem to be afraid of price >$100. Is this some kind of mental problem or what. I don't get it.

Sideways is always suspicious.... What are you up to, bitcoin?

My thoughts, the withdrawal issues at Gox really mean there's not much benefit in selling out there.

They seem to have no issues taking deposits though. I managed to get some money in, despite it being delayed. If you were holding BTC and wanted to get it out in a reasonable time period you'd find other channels.

Everyone still looks to Gox for price advice, so I think the price is being artificially sustained.

I suspect we'll move sideways for a while longer, until the withdrawal issues are resolved. Perhaps we could even have a bit of a climb if people were holding fiat and were desperate to get it out

people wanting put of gox should have bought at ~70 not wait until it reaches $100.  the withdrawal issues will be fixed, then ppl will sell en masse driving the price down again.

Why would anyone deposit $ into MtGox now, when there's such a large gap with other exchanges?
The clear option is to deposit at Bitstamp or BTC-E, where the market is at least 6$ lower, and then move the BTC to MtGox.

/\ this - explains how you get USD out of Gox when they limit USD withdrawals. 

1.  Drive price up on MtGox, down on others.
2.  Wait for people to assume price has decoupled due MtGox's USD delays.
3.  Rumors of MtGox dying will cause a selloff on other exchanges.
4.  Buy cheap coins on other exchanges.
5.  MtGox gets caught back up on USD withdrawals.
6.  Laugh all the way to the bank.

Down with a future bounce, because a lot of people its counting on 100 for buying mainly mining hardware, a little bit of panic and bouncing back on the future.

You should have probably stopped there.

This is a long term plan with several iterations of 1-4.

I agree 5 will take 1 - 1.5 months from today.

Less and less so every day.  We now disregard the gox price at bitcoin.co.th

I beg to differ, Gox's price is regarded as THE correct price. The problem is that new comers are unaware of any other price indicators and fall victim to exchanges such as Gox.

Bitpay disagrees with you.

I beg to differ -- When I was a newbie I disregarded the Gox price and only went by local exchange price. On short timescales I got burned quite badly doing that. Later I learned from my mistakes and started to pay more attention to Gox.

Right now though, things do seem to be changing -- but it's not clear yet. Bears will happily tell you to follow Bitstamp, because conveniently it is lower right now. I believe this is due to Bitfinex tying their shorts against the Bitstamp price. BTC-E has always been lower, and BTC-China has always been a follower of Gox price -- waiting for clarity on direction now.

I think right now for general purposes, the most useful would be to follow a basket of Gox, Bitstamp, BTC-E and and BTC China, with Gox making up about 80 - 85% of the basket and the others accounting for the remainder.

And as usual, trend over a few days is more important than any one price on a particular exchange at a point in time.

Yeah, I think at the moment a price between gox and other exchanges is the most correct way to interpret the BTC price.  Ideally, you would do some sort of a volume weighted average (but over which time period?).  The difference in price is obviously due to the lack of fiat withdrawals from gox, people are buying btc at gox to sell at other exchanges, and withdraw their fiat from the other exchanges.  So this causes a positive distortion at gox, and a negative one on other exchanges, which should be averaged.

i feel like we're pressure cooking

For me it's Bitstamp's price. Also, Mt. Gox should be a Ripple gateway, then withdrawing USD would be no problem.

I wonder who would want MtGox USD IOUs right now, and what would be the exchange rate of those vs BitStamp USD IOUs.

I am with Bitstamp, if only because of SEPA.

And the sideways pressure-cooking trend continues:

    Last price:$90.39
    Daily change: -$1.16 (-1.27%)
    Day's range:$89.20 - $92.37
    Today's open:$91.61
    24h volume9218 BTC

Ok, when the situation gets more extreme, my suggestion is not a decent model anymore.

Finally we are moving:

    Last price:$81.32
    Daily change: -$9.65 (-10.61%)
    Day's range:$78.92 - $91.00
    Today's open:$90.96
    24h volume15930 BTC

PS: The order book @ Bitstamp looks really one-sided!

there's still a lot of manipulation going on

Nice nickname!

There always is and always will be.

+1.... He'll fit right in here :)

things usually blow up, not down

Why do you people come and post "the price didn't do what you thought it would LOL! You're wrong LOL!" in the SPECULATION forum?  Congratulations, Captain Hind-Sight. You look like a moron.

You look like a moron. The guy simply stated the fact that the expression is "blows up". I've never heard of anyone saying "blowing down" ever.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Boiler_blowdown
http://idioms.thefreedictionary.com/blow+down
 ;D

The expression used in the original post is just "Going to Blow" ... not "blow up". Furthermore, things dont blow just up, down, or side to side... energy is expelled in the path of least resistance. You're thinking of Explode vs Implode... It's alright

Oh, and then there is this:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=W5k0ZA4jxqw

Curious to know how the market is here in Thailand. Are many Thai's buying / using bitcoin?

The OP was right in his predictions, actually. It blows ;D When are we going to move somewhere already?

I apologize :\

There was a small vent-off to $66 recently, but the pressure is still building....

    Last price:$87.30
    Daily change: $0.46 0.53%
    Day's range:$85.73 - $87.99
    Today's open:$86.88
    24h volume9544 BTC

Booooring.....  ;D

I have a feeling as if everybody in Bitstamp is holding their breath and waiting for something....