Bitcoin Forum

basicaly we see an upward trend having the bottom at 65 but it could drop and crash lower. also we see this upward trend has staled but it could take off and really take off.

discuse why you thing over the next three months it will go up or down in price. you may extent this to six mo or a year. but please give good reasons why you feel it will move the way you think it will. thanks

three more peps say it will go down. this is obviously to small of a sample size but it will be interesting to see what we as bla bla blaers think and what it really does.

In my experience of the 4 or so polls I've made, every time the majority consensus turned out to be true.

Majority census statistically is correct more often than not, but I've seen majority censuses be dead wrong before. I think this will be one of those times. This is one of those listless stable times, that gives birth to large rises at some point, that the majority do not initially expect.

no its artificially high, it wont retain this price, it has to get cheaper

People assume that it's artificially high because of people buying bitcoin to get their money out elsewhere, but that doesn't fit because the price isn't unnaturally low on other exchanges. Bitstamp is acting as it usually does, at least it was a few days ago, staying about a 3-5 dollar distance below. It has been volatile though, because of some large whales pushing the price around, blowing lots of stops, and generally shooting the gun too soon over and over.

The reason Bitstamp is usually lower is because it receives less initial deposits of cash, and because Bitfinex allows shorting through them, which allows for selling other people's coins in hope of buying them back lower.

The reason BTC-e is low, is because of the altcoins they have, such as litecoin, which is big right now. This saturates their market. They're about as low as they usually are.

As for the others, I do not know, could be any reason for why they have the price they do.

ya i do think its weird that stamp is so often low but that helps explain it. but right now its eight dollars lower.

also I have noticed this over the last year or so, that when the price jumps up and stabilizes for a few four or five days that means we will see another jump up of about ten...initially 15 to 18 but stabilize ten up. let see if that will be true.

I would normally agree with you
But this last dump then jump may have been the work of the satoshi dice buy out
First there was a 150000btc buy which dropped the price to 67
Followed by whales that bumped the price to 90ish which is th3 buy out price of satoshi dice

May just be coincidence

I can tell you what's the price trend right now on MtGox when I post this, it is the start of a panic sell.
The buying 'whale' will probably stop the price going lower than 90, or he may just wait for the bottom.
I cancelled my buy order at 96 just 30 minutes before this started, I'm so glad I didn't oversleep.

PS. Already had the mid-drop rally, it remains to be seen if the 93 buy wall holds.
PS2. I had placed a buy order at 93.23, then changed my mind and cancelled it, a few minutes before this massive dump. Phew!

Will 90 hold?  ;D

No it didn't, this is the sharpest drop in a month. There are buy walls at 86 and 85, but unless a whale buys massively this could go down to 80.
Some people are cancelling their buy orders at 85-86, so those walls may not hold if panic continues.
I'm not placing any buy order until the price stabilizes, it's just too risky.

PS. A small rebound to 91, remains to be seen if this is the trend reversal. It holds for now between 88.5 and 89.

PS2. Based on analysis of charts, this rebound seems to be a bull trap. I expect another drop to 85-86 in a couple of hours.
So I'm not buying now. Of course, I may be wrong, and this could be the trend reversal.

bear trap :D its above 95 now. i think an upward trend over the next three months is the most likely outcome

Crazy skyrocketing price, that is my bullish prediction.  ;D We have to have some optimists on here don't we?

There's a pattern of lower highs since the end of May.

http://s24.postimg.org/72viqf4yd/lowerhighs.png (http://postimage.org/)