Bitcoin Forum

Lookin to see if anyone knows the best solo LTC settings, ive been solo'ing for 13 days, and no block, got close yesterday with 52.9M/~59M diff, but no block.
i have 24 active connections, 6.5Mhash, scantime: 10 Queue:1 expiry:120.
I am gonna go a few more days, but with this kind of luck, I will surely be moving back to pool asap. :(

Not worth it.  Use a pool.

i know. lol. if i dont find a block in a day or 2 im going back.

With 6.5Mh/s, you have an 85% chance of finding a block in 14 days.

yeah, thats why im still soloing lol. im already up in the 80%=/- area.

When decent sized pools get to 200% and longer... I think you're better to use a pool. I did see a 6MH pool hit 2 blocks in a day not long ago. All about luck.

Yeah, with so much time invested already, I wouldn't stop till I find a block.

You're pretty much guaranteed one in the next few days anyways.

False. Finding a block is like flipping a coin, getting a heads is no more likely whether the last ten flips were all heads or all tails. Also as difficulty rises, you become less and less likely to find a block, regardless of if you have found many blocks or no blocks at all.

You're pretty much guaranteed one in the next few days anyways.

Did I ever say 100% chance?

All I said is that the odds are massively in his favor now that he has been mining for 13+ days.

I know the chances of finding a block are each statistically independent; I'm not falling for the gamblers fallacy.

But using your example, the more coins you flip, the higher the chances of you getting a heads (not a higher chance in one toss; a higher probability overall)

Likewise, the more days he mines, the higher the chances that he'll get a block eventually.

No, the odds that he will hit a bloock in next 5 days are the same as the odds were on the day 1 that he will hit in the next 5 days, given we don't include difficulty change in the calculation.

Sigh I don't think you understand what I'm trying to say.

Say each day his odds of hitting a block are 1/1000 (completely made up).

For each consecutive day, his odds are still 1/1000.

However, if he mines for 1,000 days, he has a 1:1 chance of getting a block during one of those 1,000 days of mining (still doesn't mean he will get one, but it will be highly likely)

What he's trying to say is that if there's a 50% chance of finding a block in x days, and 65% chance in x+y days, then it IS statistically more likely to hit a block mining for a longer period of time. Another way to look at it is if we were to decide on a constant interval of time, say khash per day, then per day the odds won't change but if you are mining for multiple days then it is just like taking extra coin flips which does increase the odds of a heads.

Exactly, but overall, he has a very good chance of getting a block in 1,000 days if the odds were 1/1000 per day.

Nothing is 100% certain (why is why the CIA freaks out if someone says they are 100% certain about something)

I mean you could mine 1,000,000 days without getting a block, but odds are you won't.

Well if you didn't know the outcome of the previous days, then the longer he mines the higher the chance of having a block.

But since it's known that the previous days were wasted they now don't count for anything unfortunately.

The probability of hitting the block anytime doesn't depend on the history. So ocmoho still has the same chance he started with.

Stick with a pool. Solo mining only makes sense if you have huge hashes and/or are running for a huge time (if the difficulty stays the same).

What you are saying is exactly the gambler's fallacy.