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Title: Hash rate rises will reduce ROI for new ASIC orders Post by: Otago on July 22, 2013, 08:03:36 AM Just checked current hash rate (https://blockchain.info/charts/hash-rate).
Was shocked to see rise since July 11th is more than total capacity beginning of June! Jumped 110,000 GH/s, since July 11th Current Difficulty: 26,162,876 next difficulty(?) 41,577,173 59% rise Few of the recently made chips will have made it to assembly lines yet. May more jumps of this quantity (not percentage) are likely. Hope my October order for new ASIC can achieve ROI. May be unlikely when all manufacturers have shipped their current orders. Title: Re: Hash rate rises will reduce ROI for new ASIC orders Post by: dani on July 22, 2013, 08:19:31 AM Just checked current hash rate (https://blockchain.info/charts/hash-rate). Was shocked to see rise since July 11th is more than total capacity beginning of June! Jumped 110,000 GH/s, since July 11th Current Difficulty: 26,162,876 next difficulty(?) 41,577,173 59% rise[/color] Few of the recently made chips will have made it to assembly lines yet. May more jumps of this quantity (not percentage) are likely. Hope my October order for new ASIC can achieve ROI. May be unlikely when all manufacturers have shipped their current orders. where did you pull that number? http://bitcoindifficulty.com/ says Next difficulty (estimate): 31,387,911 Title: Re: Hash rate rises will reduce ROI for new ASIC orders Post by: turtle83 on July 22, 2013, 08:24:57 AM http://bitcoin.sipa.be/
Current network hashrate is estimated at 300 TH/s Each avalon chip batch is supposed to do ~3 TH/s ... Think of how many chip orders are there... Almost all of them would be mining by october. Title: Re: Hash rate rises will reduce ROI for new ASIC orders Post by: Otago on July 22, 2013, 08:37:35 AM Just checked current hash rate (https://blockchain.info/charts/hash-rate). Was shocked to see rise since July 11th is more than total capacity beginning of June! Jumped 110,000 GH/s, since July 11th Current Difficulty: 26,162,876 next difficulty(?) 41,577,173 59% rise[/color] Few of the recently made chips will have made it to assembly lines yet. May more jumps of this quantity (not percentage) are likely. Hope my October order for new ASIC can achieve ROI. May be unlikely when all manufacturers have shipped their current orders. where did you pull that number? http://bitcoindifficulty.com/ says Next difficulty (estimate): 31,387,911 Hash rate 275,719 GH/s (https://blockchain.info/stats) was 297,621GH/s when I looked half an hour ago. Using formula (https://en.bitcoin.it/wiki/Difficulty) D * 2**32 / 600 = H or Hash rate / 2^32 * 600 = Difficulty so 275,719GH/s / 2^32 * 600 = 38,517,000 Title: Re: Hash rate rises will reduce ROI for new ASIC orders Post by: turtle83 on July 22, 2013, 09:01:15 AM Just checked current hash rate (https://blockchain.info/charts/hash-rate). Was shocked to see rise since July 11th is more than total capacity beginning of June! Jumped 110,000 GH/s, since July 11th Current Difficulty: 26,162,876 next difficulty(?) 41,577,173 59% rise[/color] Few of the recently made chips will have made it to assembly lines yet. May more jumps of this quantity (not percentage) are likely. Hope my October order for new ASIC can achieve ROI. May be unlikely when all manufacturers have shipped their current orders. where did you pull that number? http://bitcoindifficulty.com/ says Next difficulty (estimate): 31,387,911 Hash rate 275,719 GH/s (https://blockchain.info/stats) was 297,621GH/s when I looked half an hour ago. Using formula (https://en.bitcoin.it/wiki/Difficulty) D * 2**32 / 600 = H or Hash rate / 2^32 * 600 = Difficulty so 275,719GH/s / 2^32 * 600 = 38,517,000 Im quite sure it doesnt use the spot hashrate and is averaged over last 2016 blocks Title: Re: Hash rate rises will reduce ROI for new ASIC orders Post by: Otago on July 22, 2013, 09:20:36 AM Just checked current hash rate (https://blockchain.info/charts/hash-rate). Was shocked to see rise since July 11th is more than total capacity beginning of June! Jumped 110,000 GH/s, since July 11th Current Difficulty: 26,162,876 next difficulty(?) 41,577,173 59% rise[/color] Few of the recently made chips will have made it to assembly lines yet. May more jumps of this quantity (not percentage) are likely. Hope my October order for new ASIC can achieve ROI. May be unlikely when all manufacturers have shipped their current orders. where did you pull that number? http://bitcoindifficulty.com/ says Next difficulty (estimate): 31,387,911 Hash rate 275,719 GH/s (https://blockchain.info/stats) was 297,621GH/s when I looked half an hour ago. Using formula (https://en.bitcoin.it/wiki/Difficulty) D * 2**32 / 600 = H or Hash rate / 2^32 * 600 = Difficulty so 275,719GH/s / 2^32 * 600 = 38,517,000 Im quite sure it doesnt use the spot hashrate and is averaged over last 2016 blocks Your right, it will be the following change when the average increases over the next 2016 blocks. Thing is, the increase will mean these are solved very quickly way ahead of time. So if we are seeing 275TH/s to 297TH/s before the next set of 2016 blocks what will their average be when they are solved? Title: Re: Hash rate rises will reduce ROI for new ASIC orders Post by: Bitcoinorama on July 22, 2013, 09:44:16 AM The code limiting hashrate can be seen here if you wish to delve deeper;
https://github.com/bitcoin/bitcoin/blob/d62a1947be5350ed60066ccacc7aba43bbdf48fb/src/main.cpp#L875 Title: Re: Hash rate rises will reduce ROI for new ASIC orders Post by: GigaWave on July 22, 2013, 02:39:37 PM This just in: Water is wet and the Sky is blue! ........how long have you been mining for? Bet it's less than a year.
Title: Re: Hash rate rises will reduce ROI for new ASIC orders Post by: GodHatesFigs on July 23, 2013, 11:36:15 AM udontsay.jpg
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