Bitcoin Forum

In total I have purchased 100 GH/s of mining gear due to be delivered* sometime between September and October.

I am estimating that 1 GH/s in September/October will earn ~0.01 btc per day, do you guys feel that this assessment is high or low or about right? This estimation is based upon my own gear earning .0175 @ ~850 MH/s up until about last week, when I shut it down.

Is it reasonable for me to expect that 100 GH/s will earn 1BTC per day in September/October? Or do you expect it to be more like 0.50-0.75 per day? Or even less?

*The devices will not be delivered per say but hosted and hashing.

Your thoughts and math are appreciated.

It will probably earn 0.50 - 0.075 per day.

Possible less if bitfury and kncminer ship on time.

1GH/s earns 0.0161 BTC per day right now with 31M difficulty. In October we will be lucky if difficulty is under 100M. My best guess is 1GH/s will earn 0.005 BTC per day in October. 0.01 per day for first half of September seems reasonable.

Thanks for the feedback from both of you, I appreciate it.

Assuming 12% growth compounded growth during each difficulty adjustment, you should still see about 0.8 BTC per day for 100GH/s machine if you receive the machine on 1st week of Oct.

However, if you paid more than 100 BTC for the machine, you will most likely not make your ROI.

The last 2 difficulty jumps were ~20%. I expect this rate to accelerate. :O

let's put it this way.......
IF you purchased your BFL kit BEFORE the massive increase and based on the current difficulty increases AND you get the kit BEFORE  Mid of August 2013... you *might* just get your money back , IF you mine with it....
But within a month or so, it will be an expensive door stop.

go here:
http://mining.thegenesisblock.com
To validate the figures.

Keep in mind this so far:

30 Day   62 %
60 Day   179 %
90 Day   248 %

and this...
http://thegenesisblock.com/latest-shipment-of-avalon-asics-could-increase-network-hashrate-by-500/
http://www.coindesk.com/bitcoin-asic-builder-terrahash-changes-refund-policy-and-refuses-customer/

My guess is that from 100Gh you can expect about 1btc per day at begin of Sep till 0.5btc at end of Oct. A bit under 40 btc for two monts overall. Start diff will be about 50M and diff rate change assume to be +16.7% per 12 days average.  

Sounds like you will be holidaying on Fantasy Island this year.....

diff is ALREADY >30mil + another expected 15-20% from the Batch 3 Avalons.... and it aint even the end of July yet.....

Anybody has created a spreadsheet with different scenarios?

I have one for my own personal use

edit: fyi none of my units are bfl

Thanks razorfish! Those numbers from thegenisisblock are quite sobering, and hard to refute. That is the best mining calculator I have seen, and with all the new companies preparing to unleash more TH than we've ever seen, it seems that the current 62% per month increase might almost be conservative  :o

Right now, electricity costs are almost negligible because of the massive advantage over the old tech (GPU's) but when you look at the numbers, even ASICs will quickly (well, within a year or so) become money losers - not even counting the initial purchase price. Never mind what you paid for it, without a massive increase in the value of bitcoin, you will be bleeding out money just from turning these things on.

This data also vindicates the decisions of the brave souls who paid massive premiums for immediate delivery (well, within a week or so, normal shipping delay) -- Whether it be ASICminer "high prices" or buying a second-hand unit from a BFL or Avalon customer; the way the numbers are looking, the window of opportunity is closing fast!