Bitcoin Forum

Hello everyone,

Here's what I noticed: in the last 48 hours, the buying pressure rose higher and higher, the "above 80" was at around 30k for a week or so and now it's almost 50k where most of the added pressure is at the top, (over 90s), therefore I believe the price is going to go up in the very short run at least.

I also think this is a flipped trend and not just a short run-up, but to back this statement up I need to bring a lot more data and therefore, for now - just take it as one man's opinion.

cheers,

  Hmm, maybe possible panic buying as all of the newcomers who have been watching the market and waiting for a good moment to buy in think "Uh oh, what if the price doesn't go back down... ever?!?! BUY BUY BUY!!"

More recent newcomers wouldnt make a significant impact, they wouldn't invest much money altogether. Around/ right after the time of $266 would have been when we would have to consider the irrational newcomer impact

Well, this might be part of the case, but in any case we are talking about whales here so it doesn't fit the psychological profile entirely. Yet, can't exclude that notion - just one more note: say you are right, it still means the price will go up if many people believe the price is too cheap at the moment and are afraid we are at some sort of a bottom... So while the motivation for buying effect mainly longer runs and trend aspects and considerations, it has a lot less effect for short term… I.E mass buying (for no matter what reason) = mass buying and the result is... price goes up.

There is actually a chart for this that I like to check frequently on Blockchained.com

http://blockchained.com/depth_mtgox_15d.png

I would have agreed on a trend reversal, if not for the continuing withdrawal hiatus that is impeding on the natural course of the market. ::)

According to the chart at blockchained, we should already be at 98-99, but we are not there yet.
Well, maybe in the next hours...

I agree, buying pressure is building up.

I don't see anything changing much over the next few weeks, but possible into late August/September/October, there is a high probability we will see the price rise back past $100. I would guesstimate the probability of it rising right now is greater than it falling, due to current favorable sentiment towards bitcoin.

While it does seem prices are picking up, but with so many complaints about not getting money out of gox, not quite sure what to make of this.  I think we should also keep track of bitstamp as it's volume is getting a lot closer to gox and keep an eye out on the spread between the 2.  Part of the demand is probably just ppl trying to move money out of gox by bidding up BTC.

past 100 in ten minutes ;D damn look at all those big buys that just went threw.

witnessed

After the whale buy I was expecting another 2 days of boring activity, but it seems someone else has continued the momentum.
Following the previous 2 whale buys we had first a decline by 3 $, and the second a stable period.
But now, the divergence between the bid sum and ask sum has grown a lot, anyone care to comment on this?

Comment.



 ;D

nope spoke to soon. jinxed it.  :-[

still that 100 buy wall was huge two days ago, like 2.4m not that that all got bought up some did move but now its quite small. about 280k will do the trick. any whales want to go halvsys, like two of you whales, no me haha if only..... if only :)


usually Sunday night late we see a big push upwards, did it come early or is there going to be another big push up. if there was i predict just under 105 with the current buy walls. if we push past 100 people will jump on and we could see a decent overnight gain, also a few sell orders would be taken off so I see this happening. if we see no bug sunday night push then ya we will be stuck at 98 for some time. JMO

what do you think?

A 5,000 BTC buy (little whale) would reach up to 101. It is 21:54 my time as I write this and in 6 minutes we may breach the 100 $ (psychological) wall. Or not, depends just on the whales...

I would recommend you do more studying and paper trading before you put your money on the line.  You need better reasoning than "whales this" and "order book that" before you put your money on the line.  (In other words, don't make the same mistakes I did ;)).

where the bears at? they like to moan and groan.

Point taken.

Without these whale buys we would be down to 80s or lower by now, so the general market theory may not be so accurate for MtGox right now.
I have a theory on what the buying whale is trying to achieve: he's depleting the BTC stash on MtGox badly, so the price will rise to 120,
and then he'll dump. That will be the mother of all dumps, the price will drop to 50s. Repeat.

-

wellll, since most of the money and coins and activity are there, most businesses use this as a reference to what the value of a coin is. not that i agree with this. i wish it went of a system that averaged the exchanges. but a lot of businesses use that too. like coinbase. they are taking the average to come op with how much it is to buy and sell. right now its 94.82 per bit to buy on there. to sell its ...oh scratch that just changed 95.42 to buy and 94.76 to sell. ok so hooray we are pushing the price up even on coinbase. better?

Agreed +1

With a nice increase in price the new investors will get greedy and keep buying more and the price will rise in spite of the dumps so I do not see that even the whales can control the price if it increases quickly enough.  The amount being "dumped" could be eaten up without much notice and the price could easily go to $266 and beyond this time.  If the price does get up to $300 or more, then it will be very difficult for it to drop to $50.  Many buyers will be on the sidelines thinking "I should have bought when it was $99" and so on.

The buying pressure keeps stacking up!

They are still the biggest.

http://bitcoincharts.com/markets/currency/USD.html

But I agree there is a frozen-fiat premium in there...

I am at a loss. The sell side of the Order book at Bitstamp has been much higher than the buy side for the past week or so, but the price keeps climbing up (currently at $93.15).
My intuition says that if the supply is higher than the demand, then the price should have gone down. What gives?

When you see an order-book think of a tug-of-war where forces are pulling apart, not a collision or fight.

Sellers want high prices, buyers want low prices.  The overhang of sellers orders on Bitstamp don't want to be sold a few dollars lower where the buyers are sitting. Supply might look large but it does not mean it will move down and take out the smaller demand side.

Also, sentiment changes things. If Gox is going up the sellers on Stamp might move up their orders because they think they can get a higher price, buyers might move up as they are worried they might miss the train. It's all in flux.

The seller side on Gox is extremely low, just a while ago you could buy more than 125k Bitcoins under $200, now it dropped to <70k Bitcoins.
The other exchanges do still follow Gox, but now with a bigger gap due to the withdrawal problems.

Also long time perspective is good for Bitcoin and no current hack or law drama, people aren't in a hurry to sell their coins.

Everyone say goodbye to double digits. 101.79

http://www.bitcoinity.org/markets