Bitcoin Forum

Bitcoin is entering a multi year bear market again.

Just compare this current crash to the crash of 2012/2013; they are like carbon copies of each other.

The previous bubble was predicated on several factors: Winklevoss ETF, technicals, and adoption, etc.

When the actual events came to fruition, BTC was in a bear market.

The Japanese exchanges are the new Chinese exchanges, which reached ATH before BFX, Stamp, etc, just like the Chinese exchanges did back in 2012/13.

A simple nonchalant bad news became the tipping point to the crash just like 2012 when a stupid "Chinese bans bank related btc transactions" news was the tipping point for the multi year bear market.

BTC is entering the same bear market again. No sane investor is going to adopt BTC for a long time to come, if ever.

This is the time to buy IF you want to wait potentially 10+ years for the next potential increase targeting >$200k, if that actually will come to fruition.

omg -30 % from top when it take less than a month to double, yeah bear market for 10 year lol. Only holders wins, people don't get that yet, when they will there will be no limit, money can go to 0 yes, even the dollar or euro, so how much will be a bitcoin ?

It's a carbon copy of 2012/13.

2012/13:

Good news: Winklevoss ETF, btc funds arising, publicity

Price: $100 - $1200

Bad News: China regulates BTC related bank tx, just a tipping point

Price: $1200 to $100

MTGOX closes for good, multi year bear market.

2017/18:

Good News: CME, BTC Derivatives market entering Wall Street

Price: $500 - $20,000

Bad News: South Korea Hacked, China bans BTC, so all the Chinese BTC cannot be sold.... which will eventually be laundered to new exchanges to be redeemed.

Price: $20,000 to $10,000 (thus far)

BFX might close down for good.

It's a carbon copy of 2012/13....

You'd be seeing Bitcoin got to 0 before you'd see a lot of the national currencies collapsing in on themselves, at least at a point where people won't be able to swap their currencies so that their value is preserved. A lot of the rise was based on hype from people and FOMO, resulting in a dramatically inflated demand for an artificially reduced supply. Bitcoin would not be trading near $14k today if the market behaved normally; that is holders didn't make the market scarce and forced the price higher. This is the result of doing something like that, and it should be a good lesson for everyone as to what happens when there is a bubble of such severe magnitudes.

Imho the BTC frenzy is still not over. A lot of people are still crazy about cryptocurrencies and and it still take too much space in media. But I'm generaly aggree with you and I'm sure that the 2012/2013 will happen, but probably a bit later in the upcoming year. -30% is still not that a big loss, when it happens it will be even bigger (meybe we will come back to 1.8k).

Carbon copy means perfect copy.
Not the case here.

First, the rally in 2013 went for a few months. The current one is hitting a year.
The 2013 events followed a huge drop in the closure of SR, bitcoin went down to 90 before that, this rally follows a bear market of almost 3 years.

The 2013 events were triggered by MtGox and the Chinese exchanges, MK admitting (finally) the existence of the willy bot.
Again, during 2013 we never went down how we did last months it was a continuous run,  this time we see price corrections almost monthly.

The 2013 run was built mostly on speculation, this time we have adoption, we have legal documents acknowledging BTC not just Chinese rumors.
And probably the most important thing, China "banning" bitcoin had nowhere near the effect it had 4 years ago.

Similarities .. yeah, if you really try, but carbon copy? No!

No, if we compare the prices, bitcoin was at $1200 when it crashed.
Now it needs to get to $5000 to reach the same value that the last crash did. So if it reaches $5000, this crash would be as the same size than the other one. And no, it is not the same, or at least, it is not equal.

Also in late 2013 and also in 2014. Just look at the graph or the historical data.

The total value of one bitcoin was lower, but the drop in percentages was also similar. Sometimes stretched over a slightly longer period. This is why and how people earn money from this. Because it keeps dropping and rising again by so much. Have we still not learned how this works?

Nah, you are saying that the price will crash by more than 80% but that is not possible. And in fact, the price is recovering right now, it is over $14500 and it seems that it will keep going up for a while
It was just a dip for taking advantage of it, the big whales wanted to make profit and then re-enter the market at a low price

I think we need to consider another point of view. 30 days ago Bitcoin's value was $10,000 and today is $14,000.

A difference of 40% in just a month. So what? It's still an amazing growth. What about in January when it was at $1,0000 people were saying Bitcoin is expensive or Bitcoin is dead, now today $140000.

There is no reason to "complaint" when you see it as a long term.

where's the crash though? more dramatic jumps the other month nobody called a crash  8)

I think many still know how it works. I think the media has really helped create this last drop and that is why it isn't as similar to 2012/2013 as the OP suggests in my opinion.

This is happening in front of many more people so it magnifies the impact quite a bit and created more loss versus what would have happened in the past.

I actually think this will be good for BTC because it will shrug off yet another panic sale and rebound. Coinbase hit $10,400 today which is the range the fibonacci apparently showed it hitting.

The $10k barrier had people so worried because of the psychological impact of 5 digit "value" that people predicted a lot of profit being taken then. I

Well that crash lasted about half a day -- back up to $15,400 per BTC.

Bitcoin price is like a roller coaster, it's going up and down. You can choose 2 ways if you want to make profit on the long run:
1. Buying in and holding for at least a year and don't check the prices just monthly or so. This will help you to do your everyday life while your investment grows (hopefully, this is the easy way)
2. Buying and start to daytrade and make some profit on the volatility that's over 10% intraday, but this needs luck and a bit of knowledge (the hard way)
If you buy and you don't want to daytrade but you still check the prices twice or more daily, you just cause yourself hard time with no real result.

A multi year bear market? What the fuck are you saying? Are you at least re reading your posts once that you submited them?

This current crash can not even be compared with the one from 2013, have you even been in bitcoin when it did happened? Because most people who are always saying "yes, that crash was a chaos" have been introduced in bitcoin later on 2015 - 2016.


I am doing it so, there is a chart in tradingview, take a look in there and you will see how wrong you are with your actual accussations.


Japaneses are crap, and we all know that, they are manipulating the whole market by doing whatever they want, manipulation in it's maximum expresion, specially the mining pools.

Don't consider what happened today as crash. I consider it as just a correction and definitely it will bounce back setting new records. This is what always happens and definitely it will happen again. I know that now there are few problems in the bitcoin network like high transaction fee and many unconfirmed transactions etc but definitely it will get solved in the very near future when the lightningnetwork is implemented.

Another similarity between this crash (it's not finished yet, you'll see) and 2013 crash, are the bulls that are in denial. Just like the bears that are in denial during the bull run, making FUD after FUD, the bulls are doing the same thing now.

https://i.gyazo.com/e866a824930a959ff814fa0f10a6ace1.png (https://www.binance.com/?ref=17326281)

a bear market ?? so what ,i will not sell my bitcoins anyway ,because bitcoins will moving up eventally.i do not care about how many years .bitcoins is in a long term bull market ,every correction is a buying  chance。

bitcoin price not crash but only corection price
and today bitcoin price incraese again, problem difference with 2012/13

Bears with shaky broken TA skills are becoming too many I give up getting angry about it :(

There was mutliyear bear market  after 2013 ATH?
Look at this chart:

https://charts.mql5.com/17/101/btcusd-w1-simplefx-ltd-btc1314.png

I see bear market from Dec-2013 to Dec-2014, then a range till Oct-2014 and bull market.

Looks likes anything below exponential grows is considered as a bear market :)

I can say we have thousands of this type of predict and many has saying a lot of thing relating to what happened in 2912/2013 and many charts cutout to support there claims. I think Bitcoin has died and clash ed several times based on people's speculations and thinking on the directions of price. In my opinion Bitcoin has come to stay and we should expect it to move faster at this early stages than predicted doom for it. I think we have a long way to go as far as Bitcoin bullish market is concerned and any bearish tendency should be look as little corrections.

What crash ??? Did we have a crash I missed ??

I can't believe you actually said "CARBON COPY" of the Mtgox crash.
First, you need to know what carbon copy means. Second, the was no crash, what we saw the first major correction the likes we haven't experienced before since we didn't see support during the uptrend of the last 6 months or so. And finally, I might consider discussing the possibility of a bear market when the price reaches 4 digits again.

Its not carbon copy of 2012/2013. If this is going to copy of history i will not sell my coins at bottom as same in history.
I will buy more and everybody is going to do same with me. So this will not be a copy of 2012

In 2013 there were at least two more crashes - 10.04.2013 and 19.11.2013. Have a look especially at 19.11.2013 - what a crash 900 to 460: https://bitcoincharts.com/charts/chart.png?width=940&m=mtgoxUSD&SubmitButton=Draw&r=&i=30-min&c=1&s=2013-11-17&e=2013-11-20&Prev=&Next=&t=S&b=&a1=&m1=10&a2=&m2=25&x=1&i1=&i2=&i3=&i4=&v=1&cv=0&ps=0&l=0&p=0&
And yet the rally was not over.

Well, I'm still not wrong.....

You forgot to mention the USDT / Bitfinex is in a way unfolding to look like another MtGox ??
We'll see. I don't think we're entering bear market anytime soon but we'll see.