Bitcoin Forum

I've made some math.
If difficulty will continue to rise 20% each retarget from now on, I'll make 85BTC in 6 months. I'll never make the 102BTC I've paid :(.
What's your opinion?

you are right. what else to tell..

and my opinion? ask for refund and never ever order anything from guys from chinese basement.

We don't know future. So there is still tiny possibility that you can get your investment back .
But as I said in other threads, batch#3 customers are in an awkward position.
No matter refund or waiting for miner, you are losing money everyday.

How you are losing money, if you will get full refund? Because money makes money or ..?

Which countries basements are safe to order from?

Yes, you are right. If you have money in hand, you can do other investment.
As I know, there is only 1 customer of batch#3 received his money. Others are still waiting. How many days after Avalon opened refund option?

If you are from Europe, EU based basements are much safer then Chinese.

I have received my Avalon3, so no way of refunding.
I'm happy that I have an ASIC, so I'll stick with it. I'm only a little disappointed that maybe it will not make the investment, but it's a risk I took when I ordered :)
I'll focus on make it work stable at at least 300MHz (now it's not).

You have it already? That thing will ROI end of October if you plug it in now.  What calculator are you using?

I have plugged it yesterday. I have used no calculator. I've made estimate based on 1.3 BTC/day now and 0.8 earnings of precedent after each retarget.

http://mining.thegenesisblock.com/

What's the frequency you are running at?
If it is 3 module machine, running at 350Mhz will give you at least 1.2 BTC/day. Depends on how stable it is.

You can't get 300mhz stable ???

Are you having temperature problems?

I've been running at 325mhz and 350mhz pretty stable. Been running at 350mhz for about 11 hours stable on 7 machines.

Well.. for the next 2 days... then 1BTC for the next 12 days...  etc. ...
:'(

4 modules.
@350 it crashes in under 1 hour (hard, so I have to power cycle)
@325 it crashes in a few hours (soft until now, so I can restart it from interface)
@300 I'm not sure yet, it crashed once after 4-5 hours.
It is installed in temperature controlled room, 21 Celsius.
Temperatures are 5 degrees under what is it default for batch3 (Temp2 is 65).

It's 4 modules batch#3, but I cannot runt it stable neither @350, neither @325, and I'm not sure @300 (it crashed once).

Yeah :(

For Batch 3 owners it will be very much a case of minimising the losses rather than maximising the gain.

Yes, it looks like it :(:(:(

This ROI issue is the reason I setup a ASIC miner co-location facility.   With the unknown amount of difficulty coming online you, you need that guaranteed 1 year+ of hosting mining to make sure you get all you can from your miners.   We go live today.   First batch of hardware will be firing up very soon.

-D

@350 impossible due to having 2 fans on system and temp 2 at 65. This was a bad move by Avalon to take the 3rd fan out and redesign the case as its got more air flow going in on Batch 2. Yes it looks smaller and compact however taking 3rd fan out if they have done even with the 4 module version this is very bad.

@325 if crashing after a few hours I would think this is cutting out at a set target temp or something else within the system is overheating. If it is a total cut out then I would advise not using this speed.

@300 4 to 5 hours and still crashing. I would look at air flow control of unit and direct air flow towards heatsynks however seeing on the new layout its almost direct in line with the modulus.

My advise is check to see what PSU it has in it if its anyone branded and no sticker on then I would advise upgrading to at least an 850w to 1000w with that unit.  I would also look at tidying the cables up for a little improvement on air flow.

Other than that you might want to look at making a custom case for it that has better management on it or replace the front panel with  a new one with 3 fans on providing it would fit it.


In terms of making ROI back on Batch 3 it will be possible however it also depends on how much more and bigger units come online. Currently average is 3 to 5 million increase on diff jumps every 2 days that's giving around 0.3BTC to 0.5BTC each difficulty adjustment. If it goes above this and starts swinging 5 to 8 million then RIO will be impossible unless you are taking your funds and also trading with it.

A solution would be for people to jump of BTC enough for the diff to drop back down it did happen 2 weeks ago but didn't drop by much.

@crazyearner: 65C @ batch3 = 45C @ batch1&2 due to different temperature sensor(s) location(s).
And airflow is reasonable.

Anyone willing or interested in selling their Batch 3 please message me

Im especially interested in 4 module units

I dont get how some people are having trouble running at 300mhz stable. I have all 7 of mine running at 350mhz, stable for more than 24 hours now.

There must be some issue with your machine. Inspect it closely, make sure everything is plugged in, etc.

If the very thing is plugged in correctly, try flashing the firmware to ckolivas' alternative firmware

ckolivas 0703 firmware is highly recommended, my machine (batch 2) was soft-rebooting every few hours, tried 0703 and over 5 days running now. (I have not had an unexpected re-boot for almost 2 weeks now, but I have manually re-set after trying different hash speeds)

Correct.
I have 1 miner running unstable with firmware 0519b. Then I flashed to 0703. Now it is stable for 1 week with no problem.
But there is indeed differences between miners. My another miner can running with firmware 0519b stable and higher hash power under same setting.

Problem looks solved with a little help from mitac64. I have (completely) disabled wireless module and now I'm @325 with +16h without crashes.
Still, ROI is a bet :)

Have you tried the --avalon-auto option in the Cgminer Configuration tab, More Options box?  I think that became availible in the 20130703 firmware but don't quote me on that.  The --avalon-auto option automatically changes the frequency to find the best option for your machine based on heat etc.  It might get your unit up and running while you can research a fix.

Good luck,

_theJestre
EDIT: And then there was this post today in the Avalon user's thread:
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=140539.msg2853166#msg2853166

Great tip.   Is there a list of all the commands that input box supports?    Mine shipped with the --real-quiet option as the default.

Are you doing that with the default 850W PSUs?

Here is an adjusted ROI if you were to get a 3 Module Avalon online today.
At the present network difficulty and an increase of 19% every 12 days your expected return in BTC is 79 before it becomes unprofitable.

https://i.imgur.com/hTCgON4.png
https://i.imgur.com/Gyndcxy.png

The online document can be found here (https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AmeuPljmUNHCdEpqX2RmMDFwemJyLURVUWFtZ3J3aGc&usp=sharing). It has Avalon, KNC, Bitfury, and BFL top hardware solutions in its estimated projected returns.

Since Aug 6, I'm now 20% of the way to break even point. Mining ~1 BTC per day, but drifting lower. Feeling pessimistic about making it to break even, but on the bright side the device seems rock solid.

I'm so sorry for you!  You need to blame ASICMiner, BFL and Bitfury for your losses.  After all, THEY caused your losses by shipping product.

Probably safe to leave BFL out of the list.  However BF and AM haven't helped the situation at all. 

YG is clearly without any doubt the 800lb gorilla in this fiasco.  Refunders and chip purchasers still haven't seen jack...

I doubt it is possible for difficulty to keep rising 20% each retarget for 6 months, it must slow down and stop sometime, so Im optimistic

I find it doesn't pay to be optimistic in the mining world during technology transitions.

Thanks for the info. My calculations were about the same.

There're no one to blame. I made a bet and until now it doesn't look very good. But it could have been worse. Like receiving nothing. At least I'll recoup at least a part of my money.
Competition... it's very good that it appeared. What's not so good it's the total lack of predictability in mining equipment market. It's hard to say you make an investment, it's more like you're gambling :(
And it looks like it will be no room in the future for small players, which is a little bit sad.

It will mean around x15 the actual hash rate. 28nm ASICs enter the scene, it's very possible.

It will never stop. It will reach an equilibrium between manufacturing costs, profit of the makers of equipment and an acceptable ROI interval for investors.
In bitcoin world for ROI we are now speaking of months, but in economy even a more than 5 years ROI makes sense sometimes. So here there's room for grow of hashing power.
Manufacturers will diminish their margins due to competition so another room for grow of hashing power.
And finally Moore's law is still valid. ~10nm is expected around 2017. Another room for grow of hashing power.
It will never stop in the next years. And there will be hundreds of millions of dollars worth of mining equipment.

Some places don't even have basements. Probably safest to order from those regions.