Bitcoin Forum

I still see people panicking and calling for Bitcoin's crash. I believe the Fractals are still in progress. Both Fractal #1 and #2 display an expanded flat a,b,c correction which is likely complete. There is an alternate count for a lower low where the C wave could reach as low as $10k or so. If this becomes the case, then a Zig Zag of 5,3,5 labeling would be justified. There are still a good number of analysts calling for a doom and gloom scenario..

https://steemit.com/bitcoin/@haejin/bitcoin-btc-evening-update-too-many-gloom-and-doomers

believe it or not all of this drama is because bitcoin stopped rising!
most people are expecting bitcoin to be rising constantly without even having a correction, let alone some bigger drop and some downtime even if it were at a stable price during an accumulation phase.

thanks for sharing this. at least you had some analysis behind what said... I liked the tutorial links too.

Fees have killed it and unless the developers deal the the mining monopoly then
the "Gloom & Doomers" are well founded and now could well be a good time
to place a stop-loss unless you like walking home instead of taking a taxi

Too many gambling addicts here if you ask me

Haha, welcome to the party.

A stop loss would have been appropriate two weeks ago. We've fallen 40% or so off the high...the loss has already passed you!

This isn't new for Bitcoin, we've seen 80% crashes before. Everyone in the media has been expecting "the bubble to pop" and it has now that the price has gone from nearly $20k to $12-13k. So, what's the surprise? Bitcoin will sit at this level while we all wait to see how the Lightning Network implementation pans out.

Of course there is a panic, because there is a big hype for months now, and out of control frenzy ever since the price overtook 10k USD.
I am amazed at the number of people with no knowledge at all about Bitcoin and crypto-currencies in general, yet buying and holding, they are the ones panicking at the moment, because they don't understand what is happening. Get some knowledge, try to understand what you invested into. This is not true only for cryptos but anything you invest into.
Make yourself a favor and read this e-book (https://d28rh4a8wq0iu5.cloudfront.net/bitcointech/readings/princeton_bitcoin_book.pdf).  ;)

You forget about something.The high fees/low confirmation time might be annoying and seem like a big problem,but they are intended to stop large price bubbles that grow very fast.This proves that Satoshi was a genius.The "mining monopoly" doesn`t matter that much.Miners can`t exist and can`t make money from btc,if there are no buyers and HODLers.

This. We have seen many examples of it on this forum. Too many examples I would say. They might be thinking bitcoin is some kind of magical asset because everybody who knows a little bit about investing, is aware that no asset keeps growing without drawbacks. Also, an asset that goes up very fast, is going to fall faster when corrections come, so what we have seen recently is nothing.

I dont think there will be any doom. Just a healthy and normal correction to $5500 with a bright future afterwards. We were just at $1000 so $5500 is a very bullish level

Bitcoin just going sideways for months is a total nightmare for so many noobs and will make them lose hope, giving up.
Not having the patience and unable to grasp the bigger picture of what Bitcoin really is about makes them sell their stash.
This is the advantage of us who are in this space for a few years and where not that much distracted by shitcoins, endless hardforks, and ICOs.
We had the time to study Bitcoin and know how it feels to go through bear phases or just long consolidation periods.

According to noobs... Yesterday (last year :) ) a relative of mine (aged 70+) has asked me about bitcoin and the possible investment, where to wire money to buy bitcoin. I've summarized the basics of bitcoin and the whole crypto market and finally I have mentioned that internet and a PC or at least a smartphone is necessary to invest and to track the investment in the future. Also, bitcoin has no physical appearance it only lives inside the blockchain, this is why these smart devices are needed to deal with bitcoin. This was enough for a while, but I was amazed how the news about bitcoin has already reached the everyday people...

"sideways for months". i doubt that can ever happen with bitcoin!
the ATH was less than 20 days ago and the rise officially stopped in less than 10 days ago! and this sideways movement has only lasted for this 10 days which happens to also be the end of the year, aka holidays :P

besides, who cares about people who "lose hope" just because price is not rising. i would very much prefer them to lose their hopes faster and leave the market so we can have a calmer market without their irrational moves.

Thanks for the link to your e-book, looks interesting, I'll definitively find some time to read those 300 pages.
Yes bitcoin comprehension is a basis before investing. Price now is slowed down with end of the year holidays in many countries and by blockchain congestion (that leads to higher fees).
Trading volumes will go up shortly, but price may go down at start if bitcoin keeps high tx fees.

Thank you for this analysis and I think this provide the best views of the current state of bitcoin market   I have been trying to make traders think along this line instead of this doom make around this forum and social media. I think this is a face of another correction after the recent upward movement we have experienced for the past two to three months.

There was the time when Bitcoin holders were thinking they will be so happy if Bitcoin can reach the $10K level and now that it has consistently showed its resiliency by not going down that level, many are feeling some gloom and doom...there must be something wrong here. Yes, it can be true, people are used to a Bitcoin that is always making a bull run without first analyzing if that can be realistic or not. Just like all of us, Bitcoin can get tired too and it has to take some rest just gathering the require strength for another big race to the top. We just have to be ready for that next big move and not give up what we are holding. The future is with Bitcoin...as always!

Amen to that. Reading through some of the recent posts one would assume that we are already in the midst of a new crypto winter.

As if Bitcoin is dying just because it stopped growing for a few days. As if Bitcoin has failed just because it's running at capacity right now.

Anyone who believes that Bitcoin's main value proposition lies in ever-rising prices deserves to get shaken off by the market.

I don't believe this. I think that it's the opposite: since the last ATH a lot of paid posters or just newly created accounts post FUD relentlessly.
Somebody with large pockets wants the price as low as possible for something big.

Of course, the latest correction also helps. And as the others said, losing one month of growth (actually less than that) is not the end of the world.

I think I would be a lot more worried if the price kept skyrocketing like it has been doing the last couple of months of 2017. If I look at the weekly charts all I can see is a very healthy correction that's going to end somewhere in the near future. If you really believe bitcoin can just keep going without a pullback you should question what you're doing here. And I also think this has nothing to do with fees and confirmation times either

Indeed I was so glad bitcoin paused for a bit and at least had some correction and took a break from the exponential rise.
Seriously I think there are too many people on this board who just wants to see btc goes up up up up up faster faster faster - so that they could be billionaire by the end of 2018.
It just doesn't work like this!

sometimes when an asset goes nuts near the end of the year, people who pay their taxes would wait until new year to sell so they don't have to pay that gain for a full year...  so people game theory that and then lots of folks that aren't in that tax situation will frontrun and sell before the planned dump..  now anyone that was trying to wait till Jan to dump and play nice with their taxman just got screwed out of a lot of gain and will probably just hold now..

at least that is one small part of the wild forces that push and pull crypto around

It's completely meaningless. People for once need to understand that if a market can increase a lot in quite a short period of time, that it can also go down quite a lot in a short period of time. In this case, the correction that we experienced was a much needed one, especially because of how unhealthy the market became. I also like how it instantly tamed all those $30-$40k before the end of this year believers. If people think it's worth going nuts for, or idiots spreading fud think their nonsense can get the price to tank deeper, let them do so. This market doesn't care about these clowns at all, and never will. Look at kwukduck for example, he started with spreading fud even when the price was below $500!!

That's strange, because it's happened many times in Bitcoin's history. Just pull up any weekly chart. In fact, Bitcoin tends to consolidate for much longer periods of time now than back in 2013-2014, when I started trading. The market used to feel much more emotional and volatile back then.

Masterluc recently said a couple months of sideways was one of the likely scenarios after the drop to the $10,000s.

5 years of sideways between 5k and 10k

to be fair the 2013 onward drops was a special thing because of all the sudden big changes in the bitcoin world. mainly the Mt Gox fake pump in only 1 month from $200 to $1200 and then scamming people and running away. all that silkroad crap, the end of GPU mining,...

and it was not "sideways" it was dropping! its a big difference.

A pretty good chart analysis you provided to us. From what I am seeing Bitcoin has also succeeded on creating a head and shoulder formation which is a good formation signifying a reversal in the current trend. Using the basic Moving Averages as well you will see that it is still intact to its supports and we may now not worry that it will go down below 10,000$ level right now. With regards to people panicking on Bitcoin's price movement you will see that it is their own fault for their own lack of preparation and education about studying charts.

Unfortunately we don't realize the difference between events, we only look at the price and then just throw something which could really misguide especially the new members of the group. Right now bitcoin price has dropped due to the money taken from it and invested in the alts. There is no such other reason for the bitcoin price drop which started from a correction and is now struggling to go up, this may take a little longer but it doesn't mean that bitcoin has lost it's position in the crypto world. It will recover taking price above the moon.

People who are just getting in to this are so extremely used to seeing bitcoin hitting new all time highs practically every single week. But it can't always be like that, that just won't be sustainable at all. Looking at the weekly bitcoin charts we can see that currently we've hit our 3rd consecutive red candle (hasn't happened since the China crash). So I feel like we're preparing for a very big leg up very soon.

So let's hope for the Lightning Network to work because without an update to speed up the bitcoin transaction speed and lower the transaction fee, the bitcoiners are going to be sitting ducks because in time everyone will be leaving bitcoin by calling it an outdated coin.

I wasn't talking about the entire downtrend from $1200. That was a downtrend on monthly time frame. Again, pull up any weekly chart. During the downtrend, there were several periods of sideways consolidation (corrections) that lasted for months before the drop continued. Nearly the entire year of 2015 was spent in a range. So was the period of December 2015 to May 2016. Tight sideways action for months and months.

Also, I don't buy that logic. Silk Road happened before the November 2013 bubble. ASICs took over well before that. Gox went down months after the market had already crashed and entered a bear market. These are just empty rationalizations of why a bear market shouldn't have happened. Correction and bear market cycles will always occur; they are cyclical. It doesn't matter what excuses anyone makes for them. The fact that so many people now think this way suggests to me that another long term bear market like 2014 is coming. The question is, how high will we go first?

Yes, this is what correction means. And yes, we are still higher than we were in December 1st. And yes, ups and downs are normal for Bitcoin.


This is the part we don't agree on. FUDers are spawned relentlessly. When Bitcoin is on down trend, although it's just a correction, many newbies will panic sell.
The market is still full of inexperienced wannabe traders that do care of such FUD and don't even check that the posts are made by accounts made minutes ago just for FUD.


He's a special case. He's wrong so badly so many times he's fun to read.
Anyway, he cried "wolf" so many times even newbies don't believe him and everybody will ignore him even when/if we will be right.

How about 10 years or 20 years of sideways at the price you stated? Anyone who wants to believe stuffs like this are strictly on their own and I believe time will tell at the end of it all. Gloom, doomers or whoever have a place in the community, but really, who cares?

This doomsayers will be part of the market as well. Specially if the price keeps dipping down a little. Some of them really took it seriously to spread alot of false news about bitcoin like the legendary kwukduk. LOL.

But when the price is hitting all-time-high? They are all hiding the rocks and you will not see them for months. So as for the OP, you shouldn't be emotional about those people, others have learn to just laugh at them while others continues to ignore. But there are really a lot of more senior member who will really put up a debate and contradict those doom sayers around. ;D

What if I think a price decrease is good for bitcoin and is not doom and gloom as long as youre not a leveraged long.

thinking that and sharing your speculation on a forum is not the same as spamming everywhere on the forum saying price will get dumped, that is called spreading FUD. currently you 773 posts with 84 activity and you have been constantly spamming about how bitcoin is going to fall for the past 20 days that price stopped rising!

Heres my hacked profile:
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?action=profile;u=149230

Youve ignored all of the bullish statements I've made and all of the precise calls I've made and I'm not spamming I'm making rational conversation. And were definitely falling eventually - it has to go within the vicinity of the previous ATH and theres no way it's just staying at this level.

sorry, but that is how i sometimes feel when i see your comments. maybe i am wrong, it certainly wouldn't be the first time... ^.^

You are right on point and the moment the increase start happening to bitcoin, all the self acclaimed analyst will change their tune and become angels of fortune who have said they how bitcoin will reach in roof by February and their previous doom predictions wouldn't matter any longer. Bitcoin has come to stay at this time and its expected that ups and down is a norm rather than giving ourselves unnecessary headaches.

Well, people are free to change their minds at any time, really! At its simplest level, (technical) analysis is just based on data that people have in the very short history of Bitcoin. If the data changes, their analyses should too. Of course, this isn't by any means me saying that these analysts are good. Not defending them at all, but defending the right to analyse objectively and the right to change your mind.

On OP: I'm trying to decide if there are more doomers and gloomers but it seems to be that it's pretty even. I can find some space to listen or read all of them, I feel "good" when I take everything in, even if I consider them all as noise that don't impact my decisions. There are some optimists here I find equally hard to stomach.

One of the major reasons for FUD is paid shills who create multiple accounts or buy farmed/hacked accounts. Some of them are doing it to promote altcoins - they claim that Bitcoin is outdated and will be replaced by new coins like Ripple or Iota. Probably the biggest ongoing shilling campaign is performed for Bcash with a narrative that it's a real Bitcoin.
The natural cause of panic is noobs and just nervous people - they think that every dip is going to be a major crash, they believe that Bitcoin is a bubble waiting to pop and so on.
And as for analysts, a lot of them are very close-minded, they extrapolate their analysis for stocks and reach a conclusion that Bitcoin is a bubble because it has increased in price too fast and too much, while not bothering to learn more about the technology.

We are now facing this crisis but this is expected. As we know Bitcoin is the King even for this situation this is not enough to put Bitcoin down or make it stable(dead). Let them be if they panicked they their reasons lack of knowledge or in need of money.

I guess I have come to accept that a bitcoin crash is not just going to come by itself without a trigger such as a failing major exchange or another government action.

That's my conclusion too. I did underestimate the power of the "bitcoin will ALWAYS go up" newbies. It was exactly the same in the dotcom crisis though, a lot of people saw it was overpriced but shorting man you'd get killed the next day already. The dotcom bubble did burst without a real trigger, though I remember some of the big IPO's pretty much failed at the top like "world online" in the Netherlands (where I'm from). But I think we indeed need a trigger this time. Then again, one of the other coins passing BTC in marketcap would probably mean the end of BTC too. We'll see, right not it doesn't look bearish at all so I doubt it will happen anytime soon but nobody knows ...

They're just scared because they've invested too much or haven't studied the technology...

Point is that new people are seeing that price is surging and they are unfamiliar with any type of investment. Most of them are first time investors, this being said when you look how price can change relatively fast you are overwhelmed and think that it ain't true and as a result of that you start questioning yourself and experiencing fear. If it crushes it will crush because of people having FOMO aka fear of missing out, because they start grabbing and grabbing when price start to slips they then go on and sell in loss and after feel regret of doing this. This is the ordinary cycle of bitcoin only if you are in the game for long time like over 6months or so you can see the usual pattern and in my case you stop to question the price at all because what drives this market is human behavior, not their fancy ideas. You see that bitcoin comes and pumps next day it falls and it pumps again then go down then pump etc. it how this has always been.

Its probably because of the pace bitcoin's rise made. Imagine the jump from less than 7k to hitting 20k just the latter part last year. Of course there's bound to be a bug correction. Perhaps these people just want another panic buy season so they can buy cheap themselves

Yes. This is a point that is quite valid and I am sure it has really proven to have helped sanity and some health in the market, which possibly could have turned to a very huge bubble in no time.

Nevertheless, with the LN, I am sure the part of it being a currency where micro transactions can be easily done would make it really impressive and make bitcoin a top notch than we can imagine. However, anyone who is losing it right now just because of some price drop or some corrections, will only have themselves to blame later on.

Of course and those who know this really do not bother about situations like this. It is just more like a situation that arrives once in a while to buy more and if you miss out on such a chance you may never even see it again. Nothing could have warranted the huge increase in value except a bubble with a lot of investors wanting to get rich quick soon, but really I am really looking forward to the effect LN is going to have on the market.

True the people complaining are probably people that got in to bitcoin in the last 6 months everyone else that is being in bitcoin longer than that has enough experience to understand that we are just in one of those moments where bitcoin will remain more or less static for some time, those that think we are going to reach new high prices every single day are delusional and we must not listen to them and their cries.

The fees are really terrible and the long time you will have to wait to even get the transactions confirmed even with the huge fees is even becoming infuriating but I am sure that this is something that may pass soon on the introduction of the LN as long as nothing hinders it again and I really do not know why it is taking a long time though to get this implemented if so far seems like the best solution we have.

Honestly, it is really funny how some of the investors think and trust me mate, they will keep coming and as long as we keep seeing those who see bitcoin as an asset that would just keep rising without falling, we will keep having these fraction of people who will always panic and be ready to utter any rubbish that comes out of their mouth.