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I think it will raise, because of the difficulty. But that's just a very wild guess. If I would be able to predict prices I would be very rich. ;)

I think the price will go just under 30 bucks.
It were some rough weeks with the mtgox hack, the media and the resulting bubble and when it eventually bursted.

regards, talpan

Price changes are not significantly influenced by difficulty changes. However, difficulty changes are significantly influenced by price changes.

If price followed difficulty, then we could all make ourselves rich merely by agreeing to increase difficulty tomorrow by 10,000,000x. Think what the price would be!!!

lows $17

highs $28

Except that difficulty isn't determined by agreement.

Given the popular idea that difficulty follows price, I think that in order to estimate the BTC value at the end of the year, we must first extrapolate the difficulty at the end of the year and determine what price a Bitcoin would have to be to support it.

one bitcoin

Real speculators arent saying shit lol.

Nope, shh we're speculating! ;)

+1

By definition, it's impossible to predict the effect and use that to calculate a prediction of the cause.

;D exactly!

I'm sure we'll see the day where it is no longer necessary to always think of the exchange rates because the Bitcoin economy has grown large enough so that there's hardly ever the need to exchange them for fiat currencies.

It sure won't be end of 2011 though - so my bet for this one is 36-45: two more rallies and a correction afterwards.

I voted 16-20.  It's gonna be looooong time before we're over 20 again, I think.

$20+ by the end of July. $30-$35 at end of year. With higher spikes to $45-$50 in between.

And by the end of 2012...?

By then the Euro, if it's still in existence, will probably be in even more dire straits than it is now (never mind Greece, Portugal and Italy will be seeking bailouts and Ireland will probably have withdrawn from the Euro altogether), the US will most likely have defaulted and/or will have come up with more QE, making the $ even weaker and prices will be through the roof... unless you use bitcoin, which will probably be more on par with precious metals, which will be worth tens of thousands/oz by then (and that could just be silver).

People will be using paper money to make fires to keep warm and old men will be offering BJs on street corners for a satoshi to get a bite to eat.

 :o

hope you're right.  wouldn't bet on it though.   i'm seeing $20  maybe september or october.  (if we're lucky )

On the bright side, that means a fairly flat difficulty rise due to natural growth, which means you'll get more mileage out of your mining hardware!

You're a lot more optimistic than me.

It's clear the majority of people participating in the poll are quite bullish.

I personally voted for over $100. I would not be surprised to be slightly wrong; perhaps it will only be around $90.

roughly counting about 85ish % think it will be higher than it is now- that's kind of reassuring.

Oh my, this little project is SO vulnerable.  Bitcoin offers something really, really useful to the poor little people of the world who need to "send some money home", sort of like hawala.  (Exchangers need to be found on both ends.)  But this faction alone could greatly increase bitcoin's spread; it could take it worldwide and ubiquitous.  This kind of honest use takes bitcoin higher.

Another group is organized crime, but now we're talking a lot of money at one time.  How would these guys buy enough bitcoin and sell enough bitcoin on the other end to quickly fit within their paradigm?  I don't think bitcoin is ready for big transactions in and out of fiat currencies.  Unfortunately, organized crime may see the bitcoin community as a bunch of chumps to be taken advantage of.  They could set up an online exchange or an online wallet company (think MyBitcoin.com), earn people's trust, and then pull the plug and disappear.  In fact, patience would be rewarded such that it would pay off to stay in business, grow the business until the community trusts you, and THEN pull the plug.  This kind of crime takes bitcoin down and quickly.

Bitcoin's price is very vulnerable to crime.  Look what happened when Mt Gox got hacked.

I just had a vision, clear as day.  Here's what's going to happen.  As the police state in the U.S. consolidates its control over every aspect of daily life, very soon they will impose capital controls in order to prevent people from moving money offshore. At this point, the black market for bitcoin will go thru the roof. Sites like ubitex will be discovered, ads will appear on craigslist, rendezvous points will be agreed upon and bitcoin will be one of the ways that people protect their money from confiscatory inflation.

This will be a tough, dangerous environment in which to sell, but those with smarts and courage will be rewarded.  In this scenario, bitcoin price will be high.

You talk about this as if the government crackdown on capital movement is in the future. It's already going on.

True, but not very many people need to move large amounts of value across borders.  And if bitcoin is flowing out of the country to facilitate capital flight, then goods would need to be moving out as well, in order to get bitcoins to flow back in.  Otherwise the bitcoins within the country become scarce.  Keep in mind that currencies are just placeholders for goods, somehow those goods still have to move.

Thread winner. The poll does not specify units.

The people taking gold/silver parity often don't use units either (when they mean 'worth the same as 1 once' .. I think.).

i see a floor of somewhere around 40 USD.

spikes of double that.

but really, it's the end of 2012 my game is focused on...

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=l91ISfcuzDw ;)

+1 :D

Its quite hard to predict this.
This is cause many people will base it on how fast it was growing in the past.
But you never know what happens next.
Maybe another major bitcoin website gets hacked.
Maybe Bruce Wagner shoots his tv ad that is gonna be broadcasted around the world up in the air.

Also keep in mind its about real money now, its not about cents or single dollars anymore.
You cannot mine with your sempron cpu anymore, those days are over.
Well you can still mine with it but its currently not profitable.

Though just to pull a  number out of thin air.

I think its gonna be around 30-ish.

1 btc = 1 barrel crude = 3 oz ag = 0.1 oz au = 1000 usd, 25 December 2011

Ever since June the price has been going down, down, and down....

Really not sure how all of you think it will be worth $30 or more by the end of the year

Have you by any chance looked at the prices throughout the past year?

That would mean  iPhone made in USA, etc, etc  - this is not going to happen anytime soon. Although I think it would be great for US economy to bring back offshore businesses; tax the hell out of imports - money would naturally circulate in land, no need for police state for that.
You just can't prevent money going outside and keep doing international business. Oil is another big factor in this.

Yes, it has been going up.
Until June.
Since then it has just been going down and not stopping.
(or lingering in the same price range)

There have been several downward periods in the last year. The price rose significantly after each.

+1 end of 2012 will be an interesting time.

I'm only worried that when 10 000 dollars and euros buy a troy ounce of gold, the miners won't be able to afford to keep the network lit. Otherwise, I'm shorting euros with bitcoin.

I really can't wait to see where the price of Bitcoin goes, and the social impact along with it. I think that right now is the calm before the storm, and June was like a gust of wind.

Why? You think the election will have somehow have an impact, or just that 1.4yrs is about how long it'll take for a number of things to reach critical mass?

I think if they started paying all their sources, dealers, and employees in bitcoin, that won't be a problem. Trying to cash out a single $100,000 windfall into USD to pay your workers may be a problem, but splitting that up into smaller chunks to pay that out to all their members, who then each cash out for smaller amounts at various times, should be fairly easy. Bitcoin makes that much easier than any other alternatives I can think of (Lindens work, too, but they're not as convenient/anonymous).
Just speculating here btw.  :P

yes.

take a look at the Bitcoin Chart.  set it at 1 year, log scale.

look at the peak at the end of the first week of november 2010.

what's happening now - starting with the peak of june 8th - looks exactly the same.  i've never seen that kind of perfect fit, in any financial chart.

I think we will see a lot of action as we get close to block 210,000 and shortly after- when the rewards are cut in half.

i'm guessing our next peek will be around 50 usd, in the next few months then drop back to 20 - 30 usd, then up to 60 - 100 usd around the end of this year or beginning of next.

I don't know enough about the economy to make a good prediction, but this is what I see.

I'd like to see what the total value of all the currencies of the world are, and converted to USD, along with a combined inflation rate.  add in a BTC chart of the ratio of global adoption.  

Anyone care to guess the value of a btc when we hit 21M?

ask the miners.
everything depends on when they're cashing out (what they hoarded and the 40% inflation that bitcoin creates this year and is awarded to miners)

that will not have a big influence: if many miners sell a huge amount btc, many people think that they have to buy then when it's cheap. like this, the cours will not collapse... only midterm cheaper

at current prices "many people" have to pay the miners 40 million dollars this year.
not including possible sells of previously hoarded coins (or, additional hoarding)

2012 inflation will be 38%
2013 inflation will be 12%

was referring to now (7/2011) until 6/2012. 40%.

was just doing calculations and thought some lazy people might like to know the hard numbers.  ;D

2017 inflation will be under 4%.  IMO that is when things will get VERY interesting VERY quickly.

let's hope people totally loose faith in bitcoin until then, but at the same time at least some real-world use of bitcoin emerges :D
then I might consider buying some. I'll check every few month if the BTC price is close to 1$.

Well, it's already very interesting now...but 2013 at only 12% inflation and with lot's of commerce enabled by well developed and easy to use infrastructure looks very interesting to me.

Also a funny thing some friend of mine told me.

Everybody that own bitcoins even if it is just a single bitcoin can say its gonna be thousands of dollars at the end of 2011.
This fictive person says this, to cause many people switch over to bitcoin since they get dollar signs in there eyes and most people only see this currently as a investment instead of a real currency you can pay with.
Thus the price highers since more people want to be a part of the game just cause early adopters say its gonna be super duper high.

Summary:

1) Random early adopter who own alot of bitcoins says its gonna be 1000 dollar at the end 2011.
2) Average Joe reads this and trust all other early adotper comments wich say its gonna be super high at the end of 2011
3) He and many other average Joe's buy for $2000 on Mtgox
4) Price highers
5) Profit for early adopters.

Just think about it... :)

wow, did you think of that yourself or did you ask for help from your mom?

when will the price highers more?

Reading is hard...

Grammar is even harder...

Ahw you got me there.

Assuming everyone is from America/UK, and that English is their main language, is kind of a douchebag thing to do, especially on an international forum for an international currency.

No need to be cruel.

I'm not assuming he is from any particular region.  Why do you assume that I'm assuming that or that I'm even from America/UK myself?

Oh good, some early-adopter profit whining.

*rolls eyes*

Because you obviously assumed that English and subsequent grammar was their first language. Also, this ethnocentric douchebaggery is a rather stereotypical American thing (the "Speak English!" crowd)

As a douchebag myself, I take offense to being compared to those from America/UK.

I never said "Speak English!".  My point was that making fun of someone by saying "Reading is hard..." isn't the best stance to take when there are glaring errors in his own post.  Also, it's the internet.  Grow some thicker skin and chill out.

god I hope Mtgox offers shortselling by then

Touché!