Bitcoin Forum

(read the whole story before commenting)

So you've been looking at the chart for a while and you're pretty sure a drop is in the cards. However, you're pretty confident that the drop wont be that bad because bitcoin is bigger, has grown, is much more mature, is the future, and wall street is eyeing it, etc. So, come the day the drop begins: Here's how it will go down.

You're going to be looking for a slow drop with lots of bounces at key levels with high volume. It's not going to happen the way you expected. There is going to be less volume than you expected, or the seller is going to be more aggressive than you expected, or the exchanges will be failing. There's going to be lots of fresh FUD too. It's going to go down a lot harder or longer than you expected. Perhaps it even passes the obvious 8K level and goes down to 5.5K or below. Maybe it wont. Either way, you are going to PANIC.

You are going to look at the chart, and think: 'Oh my god, look at all that black space below the chart that isn't filled in, we've broken this curve, is THAT where we're going?? When is this going to stop? What if it doesn't? What is guaranteeing that someone is really going to stop it? What if 10,000,000 coins are left to be dumped?' Everything you think you knew about bitcoin will fall apart. Your confidence will be shot. At this point you're frantically counting the money you have left and just want to get out. You offer a god a sacrifice if he allows just one little bounce for you to get out or make your last trade and keeps the exchanges open for your withdrawal.

You start making some shitty trades. Maybe you make one good trade with a 10% gain. That's it. Then you buy and then immediately sell for a 2% gain, no gain, or even a loss.  Finally you sell somewhere within 10% of the bottom, and then immediately it bounces. The bounce is huge.

It bounces 20-50% in the first 15 minutes. It bounces so hard and fast you never have a chance to get in. You pray to the aforementioned god for any kind of aftershock for you to get back in. The god is sitting there confused now. The aftershock either doesn't happen or you miss it. You never get in. You sit there full fiat as it goes up and up and up. You're thinking 'No idiots! What are you doing? How can you buy at such a ridiculous price? Dont you know bitcoin is dead now? Didnt you just see it die???'. Soon it's back up all the way within the vicinity of ATH, and you're still full fiat. Your last hope is resistance from ATH levels.

If you want, you can rebuy 1/3 of the coins you sold, but this is not acceptable. So you become a hardcore permabear and join a bear club with Proudhon and roach. Every day you remind the forum of how bitcoin is a ponzi scam and is going to die at any minute.

And if we sell and goes up? What then? You lose part of your coins.

sounds like someone who didn't follow the first line and read the whole post

Just hold and don't sell it for a long-term, then you won't be loss.

Panic seller are just newbies who don't know the potential of bitcoin.
If the price decline to $10,000 many people will buy it, moreover at $8,000 or $5,000 consider that as a big discount for everyone. But, your speculation isn't going to happen, there is no reason why bitcoin are going to fall.
There only 2 reasons that can affect bitcoin price to fall significantly:
1. Big countries (US, Japan, Europe, South Korea) comoletely ban bitcoin.
2. Big exchanges get hacked which cause over BTC500,000 is lost.

OR you become an avid fan of a new uprising altcoin and put all your money in the new alt and pray hard that the new alt will bring back the money you lose when you dumped bitcoin.

Yep, that's why holding and not looking at the price everyday works great. LOL  Heck, I didn't look at the price for months at a time.  Probably only reason, I still have all my BTC and a little more.

I kept 1/3 of my coins and held them through the entire 2014-2017 crypto winter. I needed the rest to pay taxes and support myself. Once the bull market starts, trading is very profitable though, especially altcoins.

Yes, But it's really difficult to not look at the prices. Everyone wants to know that who much the coins cost at any time. But you are right. In long term the price rises, but in short somethings can happen which cause the people to panic, sell their coins and miss the opportunity.

These and more are  just part and parcel of the kind of dynamism available in the Bitcoin market. ll newcomers have the responsibility to educate themselves in the ins  and out of the whole thing just like going into the war. We have to be armed and that is knowledge, information and not based our actions on what we hear from other people or just what we read somewhere. With Bitcoin, volatility is always part of the game and there is nothing we can do about it individually. People who are fond of predicting what will happen with Bitcoin are not all perfect and they are just saying those things for the sake of having to say. Bitcoin is beyond hose kind of people. FUD is so 2017...let's go for facts in 2018.

wow, that is a wild speculation you have there!

you are practically saying that bitcoin is going to get dumped -66% and not exactly explaining why, you just practically say that bitcoin will "fall apart" just like that. and then you say it will rise up +300% out of nowhere just because some people sell at the bottom! and again i can't understand "why" you think this can happen!

the charts are going to look funny if that happens though :D

Bitcoin has died several times and most of the articles written about it dump has never been truthfull and most of them were proved to have no effect on Bitcoin's price. Bitcoin is not a ponzi and we have seeing Bitcoin proving not to be a ponzi/scam. I have followed this asset for quite sometime now and I think Bitcoin is not a scam and to me Bitcoin is going to be the future of money.

Were way up at the top of the bubble so a move down doesnt really need an explanation - just profit taking. Then the move back up happens because there is always a brand new buyer waiting to enter at lower levels, forcing everyone else to rebuy at higher levels.

Yes his post is just pure guessing in both directions."Price goes down, and will go up". WOW!
At least he should back up his forecast, predictions with some deeper analysis.

What's your point?

Right now the market is dying a slow death. This doesn't seem like the "correction" kind of thing.

I'm going to cross my fingers and hope we see one more bounce soon, and then hopefully my profits will be enough for me to get the hell out and be happy.

My portfolio is down almost 15% from its ATH which was reached during the very profitable last week...

It's just a funny story about how a trader is going to lose 2/3 of his coins and become a bear. Relax

yeah it does need an explanation!
maybe it is clear to you but it is not clear to me how we are "still near the top of the bubble". you are ignoring the fact that bitcoin lost 43% of its value after the top of the ATH or bubble if you like, and it is still a bubble.

irrational things happen with bitcoin all the time, but prediction an irrational thing to happen like this is weird...

It's a bubble because it rose 10,000% in 2 years and is still 1400% above ATH without the major correction to near the ATH. The extra 40% on top of that doesn't mean anything and is a glitch. $8K is an extremely generous figure and is nowhere near the ATH it's supposed to correct to. Most likely $5.5K or $3K will be reached at some point too but not till later down the road, possibly a year. $3K is still a very bullish figure if we consider the recent breakout from $1K and we should be grateful for even $3K and not be too greedy. Imagine if you just wokeup from a coma from when bitcoin was dying at $160 just 2 years ago, and youre like 'oh my god thank god its 3k wow'

Anyway if you read through my whole story of how this is going to play out then it shouldnt matter to you, if you are a hodler.

It should even be good to you if you have any plans to buy any more coins. I mean imagine all the coins you could buy at $1800. You could get 10 times more gains in the next rally by buying at $1800 than you could if it just stayed at $18,000 and you had to buy there.

Or you can just alt-hop. Ride up an alt, cash in before you watch it correct/crash down, and put the funds into a new alt.

Very difficult, but I and many others did just that the last season, with varying success.

Sadly for me I thought we'd hit 900 billion MC before a major correction.


Bottom line: No one is going to wait years in this market to make gains.. greed is the whole point of the speculative market.

Everyone gets a rock, and if only 10% of the population can cash out at the market price, everyone believes that their rock is worth the market price.

So just find more people who will buy your rocks, and you're good. Adoption still low, still more fuel for the fire!

Just an occassional  case of panic selling. Most token really have a bit down time from Q1 to Q2 depending on their timeline. Consider this as a sale time and buy while prices are a bit down.

We can surely speak up speculation that bitcoin will go down even if we can not feel the movement and little by little a dip is gonna happen with bitcoin and it always happens that is the nature of bitcoin, I know your speculation was very fascinating it can surely go your way or it can not go beyond that we can really never know but I believe that bitcoin will make it on the $20,000 mark value even if it is not now I can always look forward for the future for bitcoin to go beyond that price, Just hold on and hope for the best.
 

Yeah deeper analysis was really needed, and as predictions always in behind all of that I guess it gives us a hint and will guide us how to decide at any instance. We need not to guess it actually, because the price will have to pump up even though it goes down when it fluctuates unexpectedly. Guessing into negative speculations might not be a good impact when it comes to profitable visions, because it creates panic that might caused emotional struggles.

I think bitcoin never down