Bitcoin Forum

Is all this media coverage, regulator interest, mass adoption etc happening at the same time essentially a "perfect storm" for another price rise of BTC?

I am not talking about a bubble or a rally (that may well be the case) that deflates. But I am talking about continuous upward trend. It seems like things are brewing in that direction. I know the textbook answer is "nobody knows. anything can happen". But do others also agree that the only way we're about to go is up? A "crash" is seeming more and more unlikely by the day.

Thoughts?

We've done nothing but up for a month and a half.  We could use some down.  But, then again, bitcoin has historically surprised to the upside.

Mass adoption happening? Did I miss something?  

Crash seems more and more likely by the day.  ;)

A bunch of new people will try to put some money into gox, fail, and call Bitcoin a scam.

Anyone putting more than just play money into MtGox has probably done enough research to know there are issues.  I wouldn't mind seeing what Coinbase's monthly volume is.

I wouldn't be too sure. They could very easily learn enough about Bitcoin to feel comfortable investing without coming across the Gox issue. Also, we most certainly want the people using play money too.

It's sickening how unprofessional Gox is. When you have millions of people's dollars in limbo, you should be posting an update every single day, as well as a clear warning on their site of the current situation for new investors.

If it has a history of upside, it shouldn't be a surprise.

What is the aberration is those times when it goes down, such as during bubble deflation or during an infrastructure crisis like the recent MtGox fiasco.

The natural state of Bitcoin is steady logarithmic growth.

What kind of media coverage? Besides the noise floor of the shills there is nothing that would crank anybody up since gox fucked up.

I think the long term trend is up thanks to media coverage

There was tons of media coverage before 266 crash. Lots of new businesses jumping on the bitcoin bandwagon as well. Conclusion: crash to the ground.

The rise to 266 was far too quick.

price movements cause price movements, news are nothing :)

I agree about growth... at least for the next decade.  However, it was a surprise in the past because we didn't have the history we have now.... Also, new users tend to miss a lot of the history by looking at linear charts where the history looks flat until recently.

My analysis showed that the real rally has not started yet ;D

During past several years, the daily coin supply was actually increasing every year due to the cashing out of early adopters, but now after the first reward halving, the coin supply will be constantly shrinking year over year, this will create a supply crisis, together with the more and more mainstream acceptance, we are going to see a much faster price appreciation soon

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=277275.0 (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=277275.0)
http://photo.mystisland.org/coin_supply0.jpg

The coin supply will not be shrinking.  The INCREASE in supply is shrinking, but the total supply is still growing.

Thanks for pointing that out. I think daily supply is a good indicator to evaluate the market price trend

I made one mistake in the previous calculation: The cashed out coins would be bought together with newly mined coins by new investors, that will cause more and more coins be cashed out each year, until reward halving.  I have modified that model and here is an updated chart, seems 10% cash out still works fine to contain the daily coin supply, but a 50% cash out strategy will cause the daily coin supply to rise quickly during the first decade. Actually 50% cash out means much higher money velocity

http://photo.mystisland.org/coin_supply0.jpg

Mt Gox certainly should broadcast their issues on the site clearly....there should be a clear warning about delays in withdrawals on their homepage...really if the new users is not a forum reader they probably have no idea about the problems.

Whenever I'm having issues with businesses I run, such as delays, public holidays etc...I broadcast this clearly before anyone makes orders/sends money so that no one feels misled.

In my book making money off people by hiding/withholding facts, that otherwise may make them not use your business, is a poor long term strategy.

Yes Gox is currently in a inefficient situation and withdrawals are slowed. i really don't see Bitcoin failing in the near future though. i can tell you that at the moment MANY transactions are happening outside the exchanges. We are in need of new exchanges as indicated by large market inefficiencies in the Bitcoin exchange market. Demand for Bitcoin is steadily growing however the massive hype witnessed earlier this year is long gone. I do believe we will see an increase in the general price of Bitcoin over the year however this has really always been my sentiment (I'm bullish what can i say). Demand exists but the market needs to be more efficient for real growth to happen.

 everyone is expecting a bubble soon, so there certainly will be one, but it will crash faster than the last one.