Bitcoin Forum

Bitcoin => Mining speculation => Topic started by: vvic on August 22, 2013, 08:03:41 AM



Title: picture looks way too pessimistic this fall...
Post by: vvic on August 22, 2013, 08:03:41 AM
Ok, guys. I do not want to be party pooper or anything, but this site http://mining.thegenesisblock.com/ draws rather depressing picture.
Please, correct me if I'm wrong, but. Lets say, you had $50,000 (yes, fifty thousand united states dollars) laying around. Either in BTC or USD (maybe you ordered avalons and they all came in in april, or maybe you just have stack of cash that you have no idea what to do with it) You go ahead and buy 7 KNC jupiters. That puts you at 2,800,000mega hash per second. Let's say you bought 3 avalons from batch 1. so, now you have 3TH/s. Many think wow, that would be awesome speed or something. Not so fast. Even if KNC delivers ontime, difficulty will be around 232 million, according to http://mining.thegenesisblock.com/ so that fancy farm won't even break even first month. Some people said before (during avalon batch 2 drama) that it doesn't have to be ROI in first month. Well true. However, this is getting large.
All this needs to be housed somehow. 9000w will run you at cheapest $0.07/kWh (cheapest rate in USA that I know of) will cost around $500 or so to run the farm and that is without A/C and A/C is a must. 9000watts is around 30000BTU. So you'd need at least 40000BTU A/C or so. THey are huge air conditioners, with boxes outside and consume something like 6000Watts. 15000watt total. That's about 700 dollars worth of electricity every month... So, what would be the point to mine in this situation? Or maybe I'm raving, Calculations are retarded. So please, correct me. Prove I'm raving ;D However, even without electricity/cooling costs it doesn't look too promising. Difficulty will be up, why even bother with miners? Just buy coins directly or something...


Title: Re: picture looks way too pessimistic this fall...
Post by: Xialla on August 22, 2013, 08:14:00 AM
yes, because game is changing now.

bitcoin mining was removed from geek hands (GPU/FPGA "low cost" rigs) and now, if you don't have thousands of dollars for preorder (free loan) some non-existing machine or/and enough patience to wait couple of months you are simply out and only possibility is just buy BTC and wait.

my last hope is KNC in this game. if they fail what they promise, I will simply leave bitcoin world as a miner.


Title: Re: picture looks way too pessimistic this fall...
Post by: Bitcoinorama on August 22, 2013, 12:06:01 PM
yes, because game is changing now.

bitcoin mining was removed from geek hands (GPU/FPGA "low cost" rigs) and now, if you don't have thousands of dollars for preorder (free loan) some non-existing machine or/and enough patience to wait couple of months you are simply out and only possibility is just buy BTC and wait.

my last hope is KNC in this game. once they fail what they promise, I will simply leave bitcoin world as a miner.

*if*


Title: Re: picture looks way too pessimistic this fall...
Post by: Xialla on August 22, 2013, 12:35:41 PM
*if*

corrected, I'm not from english speaking country.)


Title: Re: picture looks way too pessimistic this fall...
Post by: vvic on August 22, 2013, 06:36:48 PM
yes, because game is changing now.

bitcoin mining was removed from geek hands (GPU/FPGA "low cost" rigs) and now, if you don't have thousands of dollars for preorder (free loan) some non-existing machine or/and enough patience to wait couple of months you are simply out and only possibility is just buy BTC and wait.

my last hope is KNC in this game. if they fail what they promise, I will simply leave bitcoin world as a miner.

That's just it. Even if you buy 100 KNC miners... Even if they deliver on time.. It seems like the more you invest, the more losses there will be.  Unless I'm calculating wrong, or doing something wrong with that calculator... Although I did that manually, still doesn't look too good. Only hope is for BTC to go up


Title: Re: picture looks way too pessimistic this fall...
Post by: DigitalHermit on August 23, 2013, 07:13:32 AM
Only hope is for BTC to go up

Even then, you would have been better off to just buy BTC directly rather than a miner.


Title: Re: picture looks way too pessimistic this fall...
Post by: eraziel on August 23, 2013, 04:56:54 PM
The other winners are the guys with access to free electricity, who will buy the Now-Worthless-Asic-Miners for pennies on the GH.