Bitcoin Forum

Jan 29th futures expire... will this be a new LOW? Possibly 7-8K this time?

I recommend watching Jan 27-29 prices VERY CLOSELY!

If it dips, you'll know 100% there's still price manipulation amongst the bears. Furthermore, if it does dip, that will be the time to buy into it again as it will probably have a 20% rally on Jan 30.

These are just my thoughts and speculations.

the futures dont affect us especially with the tiny volume there. Last time I checked it was like 100.

The btc in bitcoin futures contracts is being sold at fixed prices.How can this impact the bitcoin market price?
Actually the btc futures trading has nothing to do with buying and selling bitcoins.It`s just pure gambling with the future bitcoin prices.Unfortunately some news related to the btc futures market might scare the newbies and they could start panic selling again.There are still many traders ,who don`t understand how the btc futures contracts work.

If the futures contract expire, the Bitcoin is still on the circulation and has nothing to do with its low value. It is somehow just a bitcoin with a different owner but has different price depends on the value of the futures contract's date. If the bears manipulated the value of BTC, i dont think it is by futures.

I don't think there's much volume in futures yet for it really to have a huge difference, plus they're all settled in cash. Right now anyone who bought futures are the ones regretting it, the only real way for them to benefit is to push the price up instead of the opposite. Anyone who sold will be very content with the current lower price.

future ending dates are very important for me too.
i know there are too many long positions on futures lets wait for the contract end

The future markets are too insignificant to justify the price to go down that much. People like to connect dots when it comes to what has caused a certain drop, and more often than not they are very wrong. I just believe that the correction we experienced was due for quite some time already, and it kicked in at the right moment with uncertainties regarding South Korea. If we look at the stock market for example, and certain other assets that have futures and other instruments tied to them, they have much more money going through their market than we can imagine. Bitcoin futures don't even account for 0.01% of that, and they remain pretty unaffected before and after future contracts expire.

Price spiked up after CBOE opened in December 11th, and fell down when CME opened in December 18th. The ATH is between these two openings.

However, now CBOE closed, and CME is still to close, but theres no ATH. Since we are in January, and in this month there's always a crash, we can't say for sure if bitcoin got "tamed" as they said it would.

If it confirms by February or March that the price is rising always between 11th and 18th, then we can say they are shorting in CBOE and longing in CME. You have to time the window to sell and to buy back.

this first time where everyone was super afraid of what may happen because of futures, the price could barely stand in $9k level. if i am not mistaken it only lasted 2 hours before the recovery was started and price reached back to current level and rising.

now all the FUDs are out and people know what happens in reality and they won't act as panicky as before.
so even IF there were any drops, it wouldn't be that low. although i doubt we can even see any drop!

and remember this drop was not even because of the futures. it was because they started the "government banning bitcoin" FUD.

LOL you made that up? AFAIK btc futures always expire the same day as the other futures (3rd friday of the month).

Oops.

While you're wrong, so was I.

The CME futures, BTC, expire Jan 26, the LAST Friday of the trading month. This is the one I'm talking about.

The first CBOE contract did expire on the third Friday, but this one is set for next week - the 26th.

It would not, the futures from the CBOE expired during the last week, and nothing happened (the price was dipping harder a few days before the expiration) So no, do not expect a huge dip because it is not going to happen.

I think this might be a good theory. I personally will watch those dates very closely. after all, we're all very new to this futures market!

Yes this one will expire on 26 Jan - It's January 26 https://www.investopedia.com/news/first-bitcoin-futures-contract-expired-10900/

Huge or tiny volume everyone is affected as the price will move due to this.

I thought next futures contract will be expired on January 26th, is it 29th?
Another discount day, I'm ready to deposit fiat currency and buy some more bitcoin and altcoins.
It's inevitable due to the current market condition which constantly on correction and bitcoin price seems in a bloodbath.
Even the price has started to decline at the moment, this trend will continue at least until February.

from where can you get this speculation.? I'm not really sure of your speculation, but it's good to see what happens with what you predict, because it's important to accept some speculation as a reflection for investment success.
thank you

Flawed analogy. Expiration of a future contract doesn't always imply "new LOW". Sure, there will be some turbulence during that period but that doesn't guarantee any highs or lows. I assume, participants of futures are most likely clinging towards $8k, but I might be wrong.


Yes. Everyone will.


I will leave that for Loaded (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?action=profile;u=73652) to answer. I wonder what he is up to, nowadays. ::)

Its 26th, and a new one will open 30th, if I'm not mistaken.

Price skyrocketed after CBOE opened in December, but started to fall after CME opened.

This is my own view. The futures has a very low volume and it might not be able to affect bitcoin price in a much significant way! Bitcoin is going to come down a little and it might get below  $10,000 or $10,200. Strong support area and from there is going to get serious pump up that may break the formal high. If Bitcoin get serious bearish? Which I think has happened, it means big buyers will get into the market in other to take advantage of the cheap price.

Were we all wrong in being excited about the CBOE's futures listing? I believe it brought nothing but more volatility in Bitcoin, and it is going in the opposite direction!

I always buy the dip, but sometimes I start second guessing myself because getting the timing right is not as easy as it was last year when the price was fairly predictable. Are we now in a bear market?

Do you know at what time the futures expire?

I’m not 100%. It’s sometime after 5pm EST on Friday, Jan 26.

Thank you.
I've searched for hours but can't find anything official.  :-\

Initially, I didn't care much for the CBOE/CME futures, given that they were after all cash settled. But after the first futures expired a few weeks ago, it did begin to make sense that follow-on effects of all those contracts that would have lost a lot money would mean a rush to liquidate Bitcoin - at least to gain more hard currency to follow up on more contracts. So yes, these expirations would probably result in further losses - except that I suspect a lot of people would have rushed in to buy new 1-month LONG contracts at the discounts of the past weeks.

So the most likely for me: both sides pressure to cancel each other out, so BTC to oscillate at current levels. Less likely is either side being dominant, long contracts to push prices above 15k, or further shorting to bring it down below 10k. Don't forget we'll have a lot of new money coming in.

If the price reduced further more, for example 7-8 k.You have to buy a bitcoin as much you can. It will be golden opportunity to get into bitcoin. If you are a newbie and had a plan to get into bitcoin trading, this is the right time. Best option in trading is using the Market fall.Cheers.

But I doubt many people does that since we cannot tell on what would be the outcome of bitcoins for its succeeding days since looks like the bitcoins will go sleep and stable at this moment since their is current fear running on it. And I will just recommend just to trade with it and stocking is not the right time for that since we will make our money sleeping unlike tradings where we can gain more.

In my opinion, Futures are the miners insurance policy. They hold BTC for long positions and can short it with futures. This allows them to continue setting the higher transaction fees. They’re making money hand over fist like this.

Can you explain this a little more? If the miners are shorting Bitcoin futures then they are adding more risk in their "portfolio".

Plus I do not see any relation of shorting futures and setting high transaction fees. It is arguable and unproven that the miners flood the mempool to raise the fees. It is the users who set the fees.

Well, there hasn’t been much movement today. So I’m not sure I was on the right track. It was just a theory, but doesn’t seem like the future expiring today has had any major impact in the prices.

But I think that bitcoin is not going to stay in such a low price for a long time. it is still expected that very soon bitcoin will recover its position and will at least reach to 10k  in current month. Even after that it will continue increasing its price and hopefully bitcoin price will reach to 20 k at the end of 2018.

you say 7-8k? now the price of bitcoin has gone below $ 7k, which is precisely at the price of $ 6500. bitcoin prices dropped because of the many negative news received by bitcoin.

The market is volatile so it was normal for the price of cryptocurency to go down, the best thing to do is always take advantage of the market price every time the value is dropping.

What negative news? I only saw positive ones.