Bitcoin Forum

http://s10.postimg.org/4sf3u8fnt/bit.png

.1 Btc to whoever figures out what this indicator is.

No more reward for now, it may be back later

Looks like price indicator, sell the top and buy the bottom   ::)

Squiggly line indicator?

As the index increases we approach the peak of the green line at a exponential rate.

Is the first one difficulty?

No, the first one is a log graph of price over time. (Note the two peaks and crashes.)
Time is in days since some date, looks like Jan 1, 2009?

Red and green verticals are buy/sell indicators.

This is obviously a graph of the price of chickens in Romania. Magic 8 ball says buy chickens and sell in 3.5 months.

necro

this actually turned out to be fucking true. who made this chart?

Thats crazy accurate. LOL. Mystery chart. I love it.

Beautiful! :D

Monday 16th Dec is 115 days after post date... /dramatic music

From where comes the 115.2 Days  prediction ? I dont get it

I want answers !

Where is OP?

my prediction: buy now and sell in 765 days

Make paper wallets!

http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=k6aHHy3Vv0c

http://beforeitsnews.com/prophecy/2013/12/ison-dec-1516-last-call-2456666.html


Just in case! EMP to the computers. Hopefully someone has the blockchain in a lead box somewhere running.

i had no idea there are ppl calling dec 15/16 as the end of the world o_O

You do realize if the blockchain somehow magically disappears those paper wallets are worthless right?

What do you mean by this?  Blockchain.info doesn't have anything to do with paper wallets...

What?

Blockchain.info is a site.

THE blockchain is Bitcoin's public ledger, where all transactions get stored.

You need to go read on Bitcoin fundamentals.

It could have to do with a golden ratio, if the person assumed that the motion toward the peak at $266 started on Sunday, 7 October 2012, or 186.4 days before.
Then if in his idea the start of the motion toward the latest peak at $1242 started on 23/08/2013, then 115.2 days we would get us the golden ratio 1.61.
So by using length in time and not price, that could give the angle of 137.2 degree.

But that's getting beyond my maths skills, so i'd just say fib time zone/shooting apex/fractal theory applied to btc ?

Thanks Voodah! Lot of retards on this site!

I agree, Nature is crazy!!! golden ratio and fib could have something to do with it. Its beyond my math skills also.. But im a total believer in that stuff!

Can someone superimpose the chart from the first picture with the actual log chart to see if they match ?

OMG. This. Thread.

Apophenia until proven otherwise... Nonetheless very interesting chart. Would like to know more.

well, if its right, its going to drop down to about 550, then go up, back down again in about 3 weeks, and then hover around 800 till what looks like the next run in 45 days+

who knows. kinda creepy though.

what is the source of this chart? ???

When should we buy and sell again?  This chart is the oracle!

don't know ...I am reading ...

Statistically Sound Machine Learning for Algorithmic Trading of Financial Instruments
fantastic book ... here an youtube video and a shit music background  ;D

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AgOxoMMillM

pls keep posting ...

Indeed this Chart has been really accurate in a freaky satanic oracle kind of way

Maybe a Mathematics genius on this forum can decipher it and extend the chart further into the future  :)

If you look at the first two charts, you can draw the conclusion that:

a) Time between green lines (Buy signal) is shortening on every cycle.
b) Time between red lines (Sell signal) is lengthening on every cycle.

The selling opportunities are getting scarcer or harder to pinpoint (??). I'm not sure how to phrase this thought..

So in a completely arbitrary and random fashion I would say:

Buy now and sell in 75-90 days (on Feb 2014 bubble?)

EDIT: OP please come back so I don't make an ass of myself with these crazy guesses !

This chart is clearly an oracle. From this point forward, I will make all my life decisions only after consulting the chart. Should I buy a new house? Is the time right to propose? What socks should I wear today? The chart tells all. Life has been so much easier since I discovered the fortune-telling powers of the chart.

Or is it the kind of image host where you can change the image at a later date?   :)  Looking at the graphs, I still don't get what they're mapping though.

Probably not, it's a normal image host, and the first post is not edited.

OP now considering a payment if you want the answer?




https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=372592.msg3984055#msg3984055

can someone please make a graphic that explains what im looking at? the only thing i recognize is the log chart. and it looks as it ends now. so how are you determining that the next run up is predicted in february?

I think this is a 1000 day chart prediction based on historical analysis.

here's the video that goes with it, from the OPs previous posts...:
http://tinypic.com/player.php?v=a32ntz&s=5#.UriZM_RDuF8 (http://tinypic.com/player.php?v=a32ntz&s=5#.UriZM_RDuF8)

Some of these guesses are pretty funny.

The top chart is price up to the date of the post in log scale. It is only mt gox. The second is the mystery indicator which looks like it cycles with different periods, the strongest of which is 230.4 days. That is where the 115 day prediction came from. When mystery indicator is high it has been a good time to buy (in the past), when it was low it was good time to sell. The red and green lines are dates when the mystery indicator had "peaks", the value from the peaks is also shown below as the boxplots and density plot.

Here is an updated chart. It looks like the indicator did have a lower peak a few weeks ago. So that means it recommends to hodl steady (buy stuff with btc then replenish) for another ~100 days then start buying and sell in ~220 days. I have no idea why this cycle would exist and I would expect it to end now that this thread has gotten attention.

http://s30.postimg.org/y0bvqekep/myst2.png

So this indicator is basically saying the crash is over now?

How do you update a mystery indicator?

So: between 4/2/2014 and 7/31/2014 (US notation)

I don't think it means lowest lows have been hit. Look at what happened after the "$30 bubble", lowest point wasn't hit until way later. It just means you missed the peak.


It is a mystery to you, not to me  ;)

I would interpret the latest thinking as the lowest low will occur in March then.

Edit: So what does it indicate the price will be in a year?  :-D

2014 peek > $10,000

Yeah, I figure $2500 as an absolute minimum and $6500-$8500 more likely. Hodling is smart from Winter onwards for sure!

I wrote about this mysterious Mystery Chart of Mystery over on CryptoCoinsNews. (http://www.cryptocoinsnews.com/2013/12/30/bitcoin-price-2014/) It inspired me to do some charting work with timeframes. I arrived at a fairly consistent cyclical view of price action. Would welcome any futher ideas, let's figure this thing out!

Quite excellent!  Bookmarked for future study.

reserved.  :o

The Mystery Chart has become a bit of an obsession with me.

I am now applying these time cycles to many charts.

Today I found an odd timing pattern where 2x the major low to major low period of the recent "bubble" interests the date where the major downtrend line from the double top meets the $1000 Bitstamp significant resistance. It's easier to understand on the chart. (http://www.cryptocoinsnews.com/2014/01/15/cryptic-cryptocoaster-conjunction-geeko-russian/)

Hey nice work, what's your TV user?

Would you mind sharing or publishing the final TV chart?

if i may chime in:
https://www.tradingview.com/u/Gordon%20Geeko/#published-charts

i'm still more lurking and learning about TA, but sir lagsalot's charts are some of the most interesting i've seen so far on tradingview.
big thanks from my side here and keep it coming.

I don't see how this chart is predicting future prices. These are simply historical data. Or am I missing something?
http://bitcoincharts.com/charts/chart.png?width=1335&m=mtgoxUSD&SubmitButton=Draw&r=&i=&c=0&s=&e=&Prev=&Next=&t=S&b=&a1=&m1=10&a2=&m2=25&x=0&i1=&i2=&i3=&i4=&v=1&cv=0&ps=0&l=1&p=0&

It already predicted, with frighteningly good accuracy, some 10 weeks before the selloff. Thats what you missed.

According to the dates of the posts:
1) 23rd august: May sell of already happen.
2) 23rd december (updated version of the graph was posted) : the 18th december selloff already happen.

do we agree that may is at the 1000 mark and december 18th at about ~1250 ?

The highs and lows of x correspond to highs and lows of p.  The periodicities of x are obvious.  The periodicities of p less so, until you see x.

Ok, then I guess I am not reading the graph properly. At first, I though P was the future price prediction, and that we were at time point 1000 (which is obviously not the case).

ok, got it.  ;D

got what? i still don't get it

You arrived at that extrapolation just from studying the chart, apparently.  I'm having trouble gleaning enough information.  What do you see?

http://s21.postimg.org/4bkw2uoqv/huff.png

I just checked this and it looks like the pattern broke, theres been deviations in the past as well though.

Is it really a deviation or could it possibly be acceleration?

How would you test that theory? other than waiting?

Would you please care to elaborate?

Interesting to see that some of the previous buy points were positioned on a downtrend.  Index ~160 and ~480

Is it showing a buy signal now?

You're right of course. Nothing in the chart itself will confirm that (except time ofc). It's more of a gut feeling looking at the surrounding ecosystem and the expectations for the coming months.

Have you seen this re-interpretation of your chart btw?

https://www.tradingview.com/e/npxNXNsg/

In there, if you were to position yourself in the middle of the aftermath section of the first 2011 bubble, you could possibly draw the same conclusion and deviation idea, but time showed that it was only because there was still a lot of downside. That's another possibility to consider..

Some kind of decomposition using orthogonal cyclic functions ... Chebyshev polynomials? Bessel functions, Legendre Polynomials ... how would anyone know, it could be your own special brew.?

NB: Just a ridiculous question ask given the evidence posted. Ill-posed problem.  ;)

The mystery indicator wasnt supposed to drop so low if the 7-8 month cycle was still on going. Another thing to keep in mind is it is based on gox only right now.


When it is high it has indicated buy in the past. The way it is calculated doesn't make this need to be true. Right now it went high but then the price dropped alot, also it went low after the drops, so it almost seems reversed.


It really isn't ridiculous. Extra info: I didn't come up with this indicator.

Surely there are enough predictions on this forum that a few will seem to be right just through random chance.

The Professor Pigskin of BTC?

Agreed, good predictions involve exact timeframes and/or values. Ones that get close may be worth investigating further, but mean nothing more.

very curious on what this chart still say and how off it is now!? for fun of course

Basicly the author found a cyclical pattern in history.
It is however broken by now. The rally is overdue by nearly two months, we should be at 2K+ by now if the pattern were still in effect.