Bitcoin Forum

halving 2012/peak late 2013

halving 2016/peak late 2017

halving 2020/peak late 2021

But we saw another peak between late 2013 and the halving in 2016 so your point is pretty invalid. Perhaps you could suggest we will enter a slower market for a while and take some time to recover but not that we won't see another 'peak' until late 2021.

No we did not. The all time high set in late 2013 was not exceeded until 2017.

I totally agree with that.


You are right when you say this but the 2013 ath exceeded in February, 2017, was regularly exceeded during the 2017 year, until we reached almost $20,000 in December. If the only reason for peaks was the halving, we wouldn’t have had so many aths during the year.

Halvings have definitely an influence on the price but there are sooooo many other factors that can influence it that to make predictions based just on one is as rigorous as to make predictions based on your magic crystal ball. Even when predictions are based on many factors, most of them fail. The more precise they are, the more they fail, and with an asset of a completely new kind like bitcoin it is even more difficult to make accurate predictions.

I don't buy in to the fact that following a halving we will see a fall a while later, the logic doesn't seem to add up. I think it's just a coincidence you have come across and it won't hold true this time. Bitcoin's adoption is much bigger now and it's almost at the stage where if it were to fall for the next 3 years it might not ever recover.

Fundamentals always trump all the technical analysis and predictive analysis like the halving+1year model that you are describing.

Lightning network is coming this year, it's already on the mainnet and it's going to be huge, this is enough to get bitcoin viable for day to day payments, as we hit the mainstream news we will get another all time high this year, which will make your model obsolete as we will not need to wait until 2021 for another all time high.

Living another 3 years in moms house, cmon bitcoin go up now 😅

this year start with a very big problem (transaction fee). this non-linear growth of bitcoin in 2017 encouraging people to start bitcoin trading between exchange site which makes the problem worse.
segwit reduce this problem and we will see price bumping again next days.
Now, LN achieved which mean low-fee and high profits.

I think bitcoin price will rise up again this year, we can see a high price of bitcoin yearly. Bitcoin makes another ATH's every year then after that it will drop again in a half then will rise up again, so for me we don't have to worry about. To those who wants to invest you can buy bitcoin now as we can see bitcoin price is low. This is the best time to buy.

Why are you really loss in faith so easily? Why do you believe this year won't be another good year for bitcoin.  I think we are going to see another bitcoin breakthrough this year and beyond. In this year, there is likely to be a pump starting from the month of August, though this is my personal prediction. And not only in bitcoin but also in another altcoins.

That's right. According to all of the previous available market data, you can probably safely say that the year of the halving and the year after the halving are the most active years for bitcoin price, and bitcoin price has always scaled higher in these years.

For this year, we're going to see some movement upwards to around $20k or so. Price shouldn't rise too much like last year, we won't be seeing anything crazy like a 6 figure bitcoin price or anything near that yet.

I expect bitcoin enter a period of cooling down. I wouldn't call it bearish though since as I just mentioned, price should be continuing to go up, at least in the short run. 2021 would be a real treat for all bitcoin holders imo.

Halving doesn't always guarantee a new peak.
It all depends on the support level and the resistance it can bear on the current bollinger bands during such periods.

If there happen to be any negative indications in the variance line, then there might be a subtle dip as the support points wouldn't have been resilient enough to bounce back.


The current dip is not at all bearish. Its a healthy market correction for an uncontrollable parabolic uptrend.

People don't seem to understand that. The only thing they are looking at is the peak of nearly $20k last year, and what the price is right now. Purely based on that, they blatantly assume that we're in a bear market, while in reality it was indeed a more than healthy correction. People some times don't understand what an overbought market looks like, where some of them even believe in a further increase and start buying at the peak -- that's how people end up getting burned, because they mostly end up selling in panic to reduce their 'loss', while in reality they are making things far worse for themselves. It's not easy being a noob....