Bitcoin Forum

what everyone keeps talking about these days (which is during crash) is how big crashes used to be and how big it will get now,...
example: Historic BITCOIN crash (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=2854123.0)

but something is neglected in my opinion and that is the recovery that always comes after these "crashes". so lets assume this is a crash and i don't care how low it may or may not go. lets talk about the recovery, whenever that might be:

here are some examples based on bitstamp prices:
2012 recovery, August: $2.25 to $16.41 => 629%
2013 recovery, April: $7.1 to $259.34 => 3552%
2013 recovery, December, also a fake pump: $45 to $1163 => 2484%
2016 recovery, June: from $152.4 to 778.85 => 411%
2017 recovery, December: from $465.28 to $19666 => 4126%

where will it go to in the future after the recovery? 5000%? to $400,000?

I don’t know but as a HODLER it’s pretty upsetting seeing the price crash so much. I know it always recovers but it’s worrying seeing this at the moment :(

yeah, obviously it is never good to see prices going down. but as someone who is not just a holder but an investor, i don't care about the short term fluctuations because i constantly am buying bitcoin whenever i can. if price is lower i buy more and if it is higher i buy less. the amount of money i invest monthly is somewhat fixed.

If you are a holder with experience you should be glad that is happening. Each time after the price drop occurs when the pump and the price of bitcoin skyrockets. Have patience and you will be rewarded.

It is. I also have a few coins and I'm not going to sell them now, because I'm still optimistic in long term. The recovery, however, may easily take a year...

It is evident that there is a pattern through the years,but I'm not sure that will be repeated again in such percentages.When you say maybe 5000% in price increase it is 50x on current price,and 500k$ is perhaps something John McAfee expected in the short term.

I think it's crucial question when when the price will stabilize and when people will start to believe more in BTC again then in some other coins.In a long term I belive BTC can reach six-digit numbers,but maybe in slow growth of 50% or maybe 100% per year.Maybe I am wrong and we can see again some crazy growth of 1000% or something like that this year,but after that the correction would probably be drastic.

I cant wait to see that guy eat his testicles on live TV or whatever.

All I know is that we can't just rely on historical data and draw a line with it for the future prices of bitcoin, but it does help in finding out what could be the path of the prices in the same time frame at least. Also, the current bearish mood of the market still is stronger than any bullish sentiment existing at these current times, so I expect that these prices would still drop until no one knows when. Stagnant news also helps on bringing the price down, and until no good news can be hyped, the price would surely remain the same, or even go down further.

;D ;D He will definitely have something to say to cover it up or follow the footsteps of Jamie.

OP, nice one! At least you have given some panic freaks the chance to have something to hold on to. As interesting as 5000% may sound, I doubt if this is something we can ever see. Anything is possible, do not get me wrong, but at this stage, I want to believe things are different and I really hope I am wrong, as who does not want 5000% anyway? Also, who cares? 5000% or not, at least, knowing that history always have a way of repeating itself in the market, is enough to make us anticipate a mouth watering recovery.

Good point to be raised. But important to note that not all the definitions of "crash" are accurate. What looks like a crash to some people is to me just a normal declining trend as I feel we have been in a start of a long term correction. But either way, my assessment, and yours,,, they share the same conclusions that the recovery will not only be strong, it will push above expected amounts, before again pulling back. Why? Because when the recovery happens, people FOMO once more and then the pressure self fulfils.

December 2017: $465??? wtf... Where do you get those values?

Let's assume we go down to $6000 and recover using your historic values

$6k and 400% = $24k
$6k and 4200% = $252k

Anywhere between $24k and $252k is good for me  8)

Could you plot the average recovery time :P

Wish I'd been on that exchange last December...

Yes, who does not like seeing the price skyrocketing every now and then, but it is a market, whatever goes up must surely come down, which is why we have a trend for correction and normally, it is good for health. One good thing I am seeing here anyway is the fact that bitcoin has really changed from what we used to know back then to something even easy to trade.

Some of the previous years, I saw them as pumps, 2017 was more like a FOMO rush, unless the news about the USDT is true though. If the recovery has been awesome, then I believe we need to be having some good crashes like this (just on assumption it is a crash like the OP said).

It's mostly true. The fact is that over the long run there will be corrections and bear markets that will bring the price per bitcoin down. Bitcoin is traded on the open market so these things are really expected, and is what is happening at the moment.

Right now, people are too concerned about the bitcoin price tanking and not focusing on the big picture.

I think that for me, bitcoin's got a long way to go. If the price crashes, it's going to be temporary and obviously isn't going to last forever. It's a matter of time before bitcoin's bull season comes again. Plus, this current recession we are experiencing of the entire crypto economy may just be temporary. Nobody knows for sure that the bull season is indeed over.

this is the recovery thread not the crash thread. the $465 is the bottom of the crash which recovered in December 2017. so the date is also representing the month in which the recovery took place.

Very interesting. I'm anxious to see what kind of a recovery it does make this time. Hopefully we can all report back to this thread in a few weeks/month and be mind blown at the rebound it made  :o :o :o ;D

Well this paints a brighter picture to make some of our anxious brothers calm down a bit. Reason why we're hodling is because we believe that a recovery is imminent and that makes a whole lot of difference from being some panicky weak hand. A drop this severe surely will have an equal bounce back

OK, I think we should hope what is going to happen should be what will encourage us about what has happened and getting to $400,000 should be what we should pray for. Bitcoin as at this time last year was dump to the level that we were thinking that Bitcoin may not recover back to $1,186 but we have seeing the kind of movement Bitcoin has in 2017. Bitcoin has fall below  $10,000 and I expect arising from next month that may push Bitcoin above were we are today and the last December high.

LOL. What an answer! However, in a way the guy is correct. The great jump of Bitcoin always happened after its dramatic fall.

McAfee will just claim it was a 1:1 impersonator having said that, just like he claimed that his account got compromised when promoting utter shitcoins. We just have to accept the fact that the market has gone up too fast, and that the (understandable from that perspective) incompetence of this ecosystem mirrors exactly that. Important words to point out is that if we were to touch $5000 today as all time high, everyone would be jumping a hole in the sky from happiness, but now we have gone down back to $8000 levels, the market makes people feel bad. ::)

It's the pscychological nature of people that makes them feel bad. Great example is when people make like 500% in profits by selling at $10,000, they will feel very bad when they see that the market keeps increasing to $12,000 and beyond, and that while they made massive profits. The only bit of satisfaction comes from selling at the top, where people then see the price keeps tanking.

We may be able to witness BTC gaining momentum gradually until another all time high around summer of 2018. There are a lot of factors now that are pulling BTC down, FUDs are spreading like wildfire in mainstream media but we always know that BTC will prevail and what doesn't kill it will only make it stronger.

It was that optimism that kept the old early adopters kicking it good and holding till date.
I never looked at it in that direction OP just did and for those noobs who have been crying wolf; this should possibly help them to have a reason not to panic.

It is always good to look at the long term than now, so that is what it is. After this correction, as I would not want to assume it to be a crash, but let's say what if it ended up a crash, then, the post-effect is one to expect. That huge percentage though? Hmm. I guess we have to just keep watching.

uttist evening together a lot of media distribute such a thing that Bitcoin is practically like a financial pyramid and so many people are afraid to deal with crypto currency.

If the price of bitcoin is raised as like your calculation or assemption,I will get excited.All the long term holders will become a millionaire or billionaire.So just hold the bitcoin.

For him being a legendary right? Not everyone have the spirit to withhold moments like this and still keep holding but like you said, at least if it is not a bought account, times like this should have been a familiar one and an easy moment for any legend, unless you just wished you had cash out to trade and make profit like the institutions. OP has given us something to look forward to anyway, so I am looking forward to how the recovery of this one is going to be like.

Agreed to this article but somehow it will pump up I think this 2018 , but the fact is the bitcoin price is going down the value of bitcoin is low and still decreasing. Hoping and looking forward to pump up again , but despite the price or value of bitcoin , all we can do is predict.

It definitely could go that high. It's bitcoin and it's already exceeded so many people's expectations since the beginning. And we're not even close to having bitcoin mass adopted by users, as in there is a ton of potential to be found still here.

I think that after this dump, and potentially an upcoming bear season, the pump that we'll experience won't be on par with the 2016-2017 pumps. We may go from $6k to $60k, a 1000% jump, but I just don't feel like 40-50x is going to happen again.

But again, who expected this current pump to happen in the first place? Absolutely no one. Even the most optimistic bulls didn't expect BTC To go to nearly $20k.

There is now a need to maintain some composure and confidence on Bitcoin that it will still be following its history of dump and pump at this point of time. While it is quite understandable that many would be losing faith and will discourage with Bitcoin, this is all part and parcel of the cryptocurrency experience -- it can even also happen with other investing tools so we should not anymore be surprise though the pain will always be there especially for small buyers like me.

This is what hodling is about. In hype cycles we celebrate everyday when the price is getting higher and higher. And in doom cycles it turns our stomach to rot.
Nobody should say hodling is easy. Because it definitely is not!
Going through these ups and downs, especially if you are constantly buying Bitcoin over the years always is a mental challenge.
Even if you hit $20k you feel it hard to sell some of your coins because it could go higher and higher.
And if like now the opposite happens, well Mr. Hindsight comes into your mind "if I only had...". Sure looking at your portfolio right now can hurt a lot.
On the other hand: It's not just you. It's the majority of us and we're all in the same boat. Therefore: Stay strong!

Based on the data you presented above, it shows that 2017 is the year in which there is a very significant bitcoin increase from the beginning of the year and I also believe that last year bitcoin managed to steal the attention of people around the world by successfully penetrating the number $ 10k even directly to $ 20k . Although bitcoin is currently experiencing a correction that makes panic, they should be aware that this is still early 2018 and there are still 10 months left to gain another 2000%.

I doubt that people will be ready to pay so much money just to get 1 Bitcoin. BTC will cost much more in future, more than 9K, but not 100,000 or even over it.

Didn't Van-Petersen predict the price of $200.000 in 2018? He got some price predictions in 2016/2017 right. Who know, no one expected that jump in price in 2017, so might as well happen after this price fall.

Found some article that predicts the $100.000 price in the 2018 here (http://metro.co.uk/2018/01/17/bitcoin-price-will-hit-100000-make-lot-cryptocurrency-investors-rich-analyst-predicts-7236967/), and I see that happening this year for sure, maybe even $150.000+, but everything over that hardly or maybe for a short period of time.

Speak for yourself, this is the explosive natur of the BTC growth cycles and frankly I expected it to go higher this time. Next cycle will easily pass 100 k.

people were making fun of Tim Draper when he bought at $600 and predicted (at that time) 10K in 2017, especially when it went to $175. That said, I don't expect 500K or 1mil in 2020. Too soon.

why do you think 2020 is too soon?
from $200 to $20000 took 3 years only and that was after a huge market scam by Mt Gox (they were 85% of the volume and went down). and also now compared to 2015 there are a lot more people interested in bitcoin and a lot more media coverage.
next 1000% rise is not going to take 3 years like before. it may happen in 1 year.

First you need the bottom.  5000% from $2000 is much lower then 5000% from $10000. So what you are doing really have little sense.   But since you started. I do expect future bubbles will be  smaller since because of all the adoptions Bitcoin volatility is reducing.