Bitcoin Forum

Any pointers to informative threads ?

i would say there is no one single event causing this one, but here are some idea's

1) the standard summer slump for retail stocks, so investors are looking for something to play with before moving it back to retail stocks ready for christmas period.

2) US EU and UK governments acknowledging bitcoins existence

3) mining difficulty rise, causing an initial drop in BTC compared income. thus a push on raising the exchange rate to ensure miners keep to a maintained lifestyle

4) more bitcoin related conferences, meetups, buttonwood style exchanges happening this year, compared to previous years

5) least likely, but it adds to the cauldron of reasons.. more wars declared causing people to question money spending by government and looking for alternatives

People are going back to school = They need drugs.

nah,

most 'drugies' convert into bitcoin and most dealers convert out of bitcoin. so there is not much impact.

the more impactful things are when people buy into bitcoin and don't sell

Oh, no...

Nice ideas.

because bitcoin goes up, then down, then up, then down, then up ..... spot the pattern? Nobody said markets were logical.

The price goes up because Bitcoin is amazing. It goes down because people temporarily got too excited about how amazing Bitcoin is.

I'm selling bitcoins in cash and I can tell you the kids need drugs to handle school.

Mainstream awareness.

I hope the price will stay at 130 for while, would be really good in terms of stabilization.

Good one.

just speculation related with Syria

6) Many people were waiting on the sidelines to get into bitcoin but they wanted to see the bubble deflate first. After hitting $65 some people just couldn't wait any longer and decided to buy which ignited a chain reaction lasting until this day.

Feedback from the mtgox liquidity crisis, nothing else.

American Government behind all this  :P

Still in price discovery phase, bitcoins wil end up being worth gazillions of dollars so a long way up still to go

^ This.

Ignore all the short-term thinking and other small-mindedness.

That's the same as saying that the crash from $266 happened because of DDoS, nothing else.

Not really, there were DDoS attacks all the way back during the rally which hadn't had any dramatic effect.

What remains is Technical Analysis which acts as an amplifier for volatility.

Bullshit. We're in this trend since early July. Whatever the reasons (epic bull trap? actual reversal?), the often invoked, bordering on magical "liquidity crisis" can only be a minor part of it, otherwise you'd see not just a largely fixed spread between mtgox and the other exchanges, but a widely diverging price development.

Whatever caused the recent jumps (apart from the obvious: large buys) needs to be seen in perspective of a now almost 2 month long, rather solid upwards trend on all other major exchanges.

tl;dr don't be a lazy bear. at least be creative.

https://i.imgur.com/6QpBUMH.png

bitcoin is booming.

Spread is increasing overall, that the other exchanges follow mtgox still comes to no great surprise.
It is simply that the amount of USD in mtgox still dwarfs the amount present in the other exchanges. This can go a long way, in theory above the ATH actually.

The problem though is that there isn't really a mechanism to know where it would end unless you know how many funds are in the exchanges besides the order book.

True, spread slowly went up, from around 6% in July, 9% in August, to around 11% now. In the past weeks it  stabilized, actually went down again from a peak about two weaks ago. In any case, that's simply not the development you would see if people would try to get out of mtgox (which they do) and rush out of bitcoin altogether (which they don't, at least not in large numbers).

True, mtgox is still the market leader. Current 30d volume of mtgox vs 30d volume of bitstamp is 566k vs. 334k. That's an interesting definition of "dwarf".

Completely inconsistent with the under 7k 24hr volume I'm seeing on Gox right now (even less on Bitstamp) and the extreme difficulty in getting fiat out of Gox, which is the ONLY thing driving the price up atm.

Booming... yea right. More like Gox extorting the suckers with fiat there.

I'm meaning the amount of funds present in the exchange, not the volume. I think that there is a big discrepancy between the volume and the amount of funds in the exchanges. Others have been lot more active in terms of relative volume but that doesn't change the funds on the exchange itself.

Look, I'm very doubtful myself about the sustainability of the current uptrend. I wouldn't be all that surprised if we go down again, double digits down, and do so hard. But right now, we're not going up for the reason you mention. What does the order book matter, or total funds stored on the exchange, if people actually buy in large quantities on both exchanges? There's obviously enough cash on bitstamp to overtake mtgox on daily volume on occasion.

What you describe would mean uncertainty drives up the price on mtgox, which then drives up the on the other exchanges, and so on. Problem is, it's not a feedback loop. If you buy coins to get out completely, you will sell on the the other exchanges, which would drive down the price. On the other hand, if you buy coins on mtgox to hold on to them, you might be willing to pay a premium, but then you hold on to them. The way it looks now, reality looks much more in line with the second explanation than with the first.

The thing is, as this goes on and the asks are depleted on mtgox it sparks more confidence for the bulls, which in term makes them wire more money to other exchanges.

So what we see is (a) a shift of volume from mtgox to other exchanges, (b) more confidence by buyers, maybe for the wrong reasons, (c) an overall reluctance to sell coins. Looks good enough me.

Maybe we see the same thing, but give it different names. An uptrend lasting several months is never fake in my book, even if it ends in a crash. What matters is how fast price recovers, and if it ends higher or lower than before it took off.

I never wrote it's fake, every price movement is legitimate. Fundamentals don't mean shit when it comes to Bitcoin prices, it's a Keynesian Beauty Contest.

I think current situation is confirming my suspect that price was going up on Gox only because people want out of it, and is pretty much over now.

First we had large USD->BTC buys driving price up in $10 steps, now we have many days of dead flat price on Gox and price falling on bitstamp, as the people moving coins there start selling.

We are approaching today to $20 spread between gox and bitstamp. This is the biggest spread we ever had, and is growing. IMHO, the only reason this can happen is when nobody would touch gox with a barge pole, so we don't see any arbitrage happening. Thinking about it, buy @127 and sell @144 you have the potential to get lots of money. Yet people would rather NOT do it.

I can print tons of monopoly money on my own printer without risking my coins  ;D

People could pay 5% to obtain a international wire out of MtGox.
This is the reason there is an hige 10% differential between Gox and Bistamp.
5%+IW time = 10% spread.