Bitcoin Forum

We had a good ride, folks, didn't we. July 7 marked the beginning of an almost uninterrupted uptrend for nearly 2 months. We saw the occasional dip, but it never really broke. You probably noticed the sudden disappearance of all those "It's 2011 all over again" doomsday threads. Jup, that's how solid that trend was.

But it looks a bit different this time, doesn't it? We're falling back sharply towards SMA100, CMF is a mess, and we haven't seen any hard support level yet. Plus, there was very little volume on the way up, on mtgox at least. Whale manipulation, I say!

Then again, panic selling already stopped, volume is better than ever - on bitstamp, and it doesn't look like the market wants price to even go anywhere near 100. Maybe we're just reducing spread between mtgox and bitstamp, and shaking out some of the weak hands in the process, and then we're on our way up again.

What's it look like to you?

Any news on the Gox front? I noticed the spread had been decreasing, made me wonder if maybe they've caught up with their backlog? In terms of price movement, I'm going with just a temporary pullback following a sharp rise. Once the weak hands have all sold, it'll be onwards and upwards.

I'm calling the end of the bubble and its week-long downtrends. BTC volume on Bitstamp is almost as high as on the July bottom ($ volume is therefore much higher). Remember downtrends never have much life expectancy in a market that trebles every 6 months.

Trends never last forever, it's quite remarkable how solid the uptrend was for two months. Withdrawal problems at MtGox might have something to do with it, but then again those problems already existed before this uptrend. I think we're going through a transition where MtGox loses its status as market leader and Bitstamp takes over. Market depth is still lacking at Bitstamp but this should improve as more and more people with big money start trusting the new market leader. Whales just need to make a small leap of faith, and when a couple of them do the rest will follow eventually. It's just a matter of trust, and I think Gox is quickly losing it so these whales will have to make a choice.

Personally I think 121 was the bottom of this pullback and we go up from here. But you never know with bitcoin, testing 110 or 100 again is also a possibility. I sold at 130 on Bitstamp and bought back at 116 (with my play money), we'll see what happens next. :)

There's a long thread on the service discussion subforum about this topic, and while the initial panic in it has maybe declined, after skimming the thread I got the impression that there's a pretty consistent delay between initiating a withdrawal (to a US bank account, that is) and arrival of money in the range of 2 to 3 months. That value seems to depend on the amount withdrawn though, with larger amounts possibly going through faster.

I wonder if the whole "Japanese bank limits our automated transfers" explanation is just a clever solution to the problem that they have an n million USD gap in their balance due to the recent seizures, and they manage that gap by introducint a fixed delay between ingoing and outgoing cash. /speculation

For a while now, I thought of the real price of a coin as the bitstamp price, minus a small percentage perhaps because of the wrong signals from mtgox (forced buying pressure because of fiat problems). Then again, there's chodpaba's hypothesis that the recent history has to be seen in the context of a carefully managed buying program of a super whale. /shrug


Nice. I tried something similar, starting from a slightly smaller margin (selling at around 128, buying back at around 120), but didn't take care of slippage enough and ended up with a small loss.

The July tend is all that stands before capitulation, so the evangelists will do anything they can to pump.

That includes hoaxes, publishing false data and bold lies. Take care... they have amassed an impressive army of shills.
Joe Lewis and eBay was just the beginning.

Even clarkmoody is on this? o__O

Well that's stretching it.
On the other hand the mtgox liquidity problems could be explained if the amount of seized funds were much higher in reality.

See what I wrote above. I'm willing to give mtgox exactly zero benefit of doubt, but the withdrawal delay appears to be high, but stable. So while the amount of seized funds could be higher than admitted, under an already cynical view they are able to contain the fallout by introducing a fixed delay to the withdrawal process, which means that there is a possibly high but fixed amount of fiat missing. Emphasis on 'fixed'.

Watch out, your tinfoil hat is showing. :P

lol

So what?
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=289737.0