Bitcoin Forum

http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/4/4b/Stages_of_a_bubble.png/800px-Stages_of_a_bubble.png
http://bitcoincharts.com/charts/chart.png?width=800&m=mtgoxUSD&SubmitButton=Draw&r=1460&i=Weekly&c=0&s=&e=&Prev=&Next=&t=M&b=&a1=&m1=10&a2=&m2=25&x=0&i1=&i2=&i3=&i4=&v=0&cv=0&ps=0&l=0&p=0&

 ::)

who gives a fuck really. all that really matters is this: either the price will have to increase for mining to remain profitable, or hardware companies will have to drastically reduce their prices, else bitcoin will crash again. DAT LOGIC SON

People stopping to buy mining rigs and buying btc directly will cause it to crash??

reading comprehension

easy: fiat is in capitulation phase.

We're still in the taking off phase if you look at the bigger picture. But there are always fractal patterns visible if you zoom in so you have various patterns within bigger patterns that look similar. But I don't think we'll see capitulation within this smaller time frame though, it will go up and down for a while but the time when bitcoins could be bought below $40-50 are over imo. Too many new people have come in, and too many old people are out who sold somewhere between $15 and $100 and are still in denial waiting for capitulation. We will see THEM capitulate and panic buy back in as we let go of the bubble anxiety and the price starts to rise above $170. :)

It cannot be Return to normal as the graph would end up in negative value ^^
Also I don't think we saw Institutional Investors yet.

This stock bubble went from 50 to 200 in 1+ years.  Let's see if you can scroll it forward in time:

https://www.google.com/finance?chdnp=1&chdd=1&chds=1&chdv=1&chvs=maximized&chdeh=0&chfdeh=0&chdet=1241208000000&chddm=282203&chls=IntervalBasedLine&q=NASDAQ:AAPL&ntsp=0&ei=FSAvUqiYOZiWlwPILA
 (https://www.google.com/finance?chdnp=1&chdd=1&chds=1&chdv=1&chvs=maximized&chdeh=0&chfdeh=0&chdet=1241208000000&chddm=282203&chls=IntervalBasedLine&q=NASDAQ:AAPL&ntsp=0&ei=FSAvUqiYOZiWlwPILA)


Seriously,  plenty of growth looks like a bubble when you are in it.  And there are key differences between your canonical bubble and bitcoin's last year.  For example, dropping to 20% of the ATH twice,  while the bubble graph is showing maybe just a 20% retracement before "return to normal".  Second, the return to normal happens much sooner relative to the duration of the run-up.  And we DID return... a week or so after the fall.

I see everything from take off to fear, but then instead of following the plan to capitulation, it moved back up again!
I assume you are saying that this move up is the "return to normal" (i.e. lets forget about the last 2 rises because it doesn't fit my chart), if so we are in for quite a fall!

I don't really believe in technical analysis too much, it seems excellent for looking back at what has happened, but a poor predictor of what will happen.

The 2011 and 2013 crashes were part of the "takeoff" fractal.  The "first selloff" and "bear trap" are coming but from much higher levels.

Great illustration there!

Also we are still waiting for the "Public".

if gox hits $150 again, I'll definitely think "return to normal" - so that has my vote.
At the moment, its a bull trap.

Funny post EM :)

I think Miz has it right here.

This means, it will likely go down*, but indeed not below $40, and in the grand scheme of things we are still at early adopter phase so the big bubble where institutional investors and later the mass market participates will push it to much higher prices but only in a few years.

*At least I hope it will go down or I'm *** ;) EM same situation?  ;D

Hahaha I think so too!

Omg we are in a bubble, buy buy buy, no sell sell sell

*If* Bitcoin is a keeper technology for the human race then buy and never sell.

Look at it on a log scale, and you will see a very different picture. Also, remember that the rate of inflation halved last November. So the rise from January to April this year and the subsequent plateau closely resembles the rises from May to July 2012, and November 2011 to January 2012, and also the rise from April to June 2011 except that one had a steeper (downward sloping) plateau because of the higher rate of inflation.

In conclusion, therefore, we are not resembling the OP chart at all.

For bitcoin the chart will always point upwards, due to limited supply of bitcoin and unlimited supply of fiat money, this chart is irrelevant

Log chart might be appropriate for spread or adoption of the underlying technology but not the fiat price of a single instance of the technology.

idiots w/ their log charts.

http://i41.tinypic.com/2lc8wle.jpg


Did I nail it? Is there a prize?

The price moved from $1 to $10, that was huge! The price moves from $133 to $142 nobody blinks an eye. Why are they shown the same on the chart if they produce such vastly different responses? Therefore, log charts are useful.

Yea i kno, right?

That's how I read it, but EM wants you to see us at "return to normal" rather than "return to mean".

Please explain how "spread or adoption" is not proportional to price at this stage.

Interesting I expected the -- I refuse to vote -- option to be far more popular.

I am confused, are you agreeing with me or disagreeing with me?

The illustration isn't supposed to be logarithmic so this debate is irrelevant.

So Enthusiasm is at the same height as Despair? How does that work out?

Is Bitcoin bipolar?

Yes

I guess you're operating under the assumption that the graph will fit every bubble market ever at a 1:1 scale?

That is, if we can set aside the fact that our bubble started around $13, and that would mean "despair" would need to be a negative number to hold these proportions. I can't come up with a scenario where that would make sense, but I'd like to hear yours. Tell me what is going to make me pay someone, what would apear to be $20 or $30 a piece, to take my bitcoins, and I'll consider your point fair.

@ Mucus: Sry, but your chart is rigged. Change the time interval and vote again. :-*

You never cease to make yourself look stupid.

Yeah so did I. It's not too poor either so I'm satisfied :P.

I have two answers for you:

First, consider the average Bitcoin be representative of a certain part of a defaulted bank loan, that would push it into the negative territory. That doesn't mean people actually pay money to get rid of their coins on the open market but rather they do so to get rid of their debt. I think the number of people who leveraged their way into their Bitcoin holdings is alarmingly high, and even some of the prominent Bulls in this forum agree with me on that. (Cypherdoc for example, correct me if I'm wrong ;) )

Second, I think Despair just is supposed to be below the mean, which in turn should match the non-bubble market loosely. Where ever that is in the case of Bitcoin we would still have to find out.
If you extrapolate the stable episodes it should be around 10-20 Dollar, more or less depending on the news.

No, I think it's just right.
We can argue if "First Sell off" was in 2011 or 2012 but they are clearly visible either way.

But resetting the poll is an interesting idea, I will do that once we got some significant market movement in a month or so.

This I can agree with and it's a point that makes me feel that a real crash to $10 or so would be a good thing. It would hurt me as well but to see those morons get flushed out of the system like that more than makes up for the loss. ;) But I'm afraid the momentum for that to happen is gone now, sadly not all human stupidity gets appropriately punished. If that were true we wouldn't have as many of them. :P

So that peak is supposed to equate to new paradigm ?

Doesn't work for me. I think we're still in the early take off, before long the peak will be another little ripple, just like the 2011 one is now. Its quite hard to think bitcoins is anything other than a very promising fledgling technology at the minute.

It is not even in the graph. We are like in 2009. It still have to grow x1000 (and even more later)

Here have a few zeros:

00000000000000O0000000000

(be careful don't pick the O)

So confuuused, whose graph to uuuuse to predict the future - this graph or EM's graph?
Lol. You can make any graph look like any other graph using pan/zoom/etc.

That being said, I wouldn't discount the possibility of an even greater crash. When you're in the midst of it all you can do is guess because many of the most significant "permanent" growth industries had patterns like the "canonical bubble" in their adoption curve, if you zoom in to one spot. But the people who suggested canonical bubble at that point got burned. On the other hand, the true bubbles had plenty of people wanking to log graphs and they all got burned.

there is no volumen on the market except the omninous manipulating whales.

Threads like "Bitcoin will never extend more" and "Bitcoin is slowly shit" spread like mushrooms.

There is no single success-story of the bitcoin-universe. Except scammers and hackers.

By now every company or e-seller knows bitcoin and is tired of bitcoiners claims to accept it. Those who accepted don't have many payments.

Asics are a new megabubble which has to burst for sure.

We'll be soon back to normal, manipulation and illusion can't last forever. Than we'll continue the ride down. It will be like the yoyo-effect after a diet. Prepare!

Good points Itcher, lots of things is not right at the moment.

ROFLMAO

This made me laugh.  :D

As they say, who laughs last laughs best.

Single digits = 0,001% chance
double digits = 40%
triple

edit:
Quadruple  digits = 99,999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999 %

Sounds foolproof, do you believe it yourself?
If so, any evidence besides that belief?

well if the price hits single digits im gonna go sell my house and buy in