Bitcoin Forum

can it hit 50 cents by months end?

I think too little of bitcoin activity is around goods and services whike most is around exchanging.

Exchanging is a very valuable purpose, especially in a world where it is hard to get money into bitcoin. I also think the number of goods and services are increasing.

You can already pay your phone bills directly in bitcoin, advertise on sites, tip people, magazine to write for, and so on.

I am already getting rich from these sources, and more.

It is very possible, at this rate it could easily reach parity with the dollar by July.

There is the very real danger that btc is becoming a bubble. I think a lot of people buying into btc are doing it only because they expect it to rise. Which will happen, but wont continue forever unless it is being used to trade goods and services.

I think too little of bitcoin activity is around goods and services whike most is around exchanging.

Although, many people here are Libertarian, and are buying bitcoin for the long term as it is a Libertarians dream curreny( there is of course gold and silver, but until you can send those in the email then btc is better for international trade), but I'm not sure by what amount.

A magazine to write for? Who is paying in btc for articles? What kind of articles are they looking for?

fabianhjr and I are working on content for next week's issue for The Bitcoin Times. We also already have two advertisers lined up.

We're the only writers at the moment, since nobody else wants to write for the magazine.

I think the growth will be slowed down as soon as we hit 0.50$ because someone has an order in place, selling 20'000 BTC at 0.51$ and it will take some time to work that down. Hopefully we'll get over that one fast enough :-)

I have not used mtgox, is he the one doing the exchange or is he just running a market?

If he is the one doing the exchane himself then yes the price will drop for a while( shouldnt be more than one or two weeks ). However if he is just running a market then it wont effect price at all, there must be a buyer for that 20,000 btc. It just means the market will be very liquid over that price for buying btc and under that price other btc sellers will be filling orders.

Either way mtgox moves that amount in one day at this point.

It all reaches a natural equilibrium to relate its true price. But the worries are if the price is based on speculation or actual value at that time. Speculators will be the doom of BitCoin.

Speculators will be the doom of BitCoin.

It all reaches a natural equilibrium to relate its true price. But the worries are if the price is based on speculation or actual value at that time. Speculators will be the doom of BitCoin.

No, they won't.
http://mises.org/daily/4466

This is true.

Ultimately the value of anything is whether people perceive value in it, that is all. I only worry of "crashes" that may happen in the future. Where everyone will buy BitCoins hoping they will increase in value, I don't think thats a good thing to base its value on. To buy something comparing it to what you think the future value is. But if you believe one BitCoin can buy you 50 cents worth of goods and services, this is "good" in my opinion.

Otherwise when the price gets too high, the speculators who bought the BitCoins will sell it and then we find it tumbling down, and unless there are enough Goods and Services to go around to protect the value it will crumble.

For example. I can set up a market for each of the hairs of my head. And if somehow there is madness and people buy it, not because they wanna own my hair but believe it will increase in value. Then when the bubble bursts it will go back to its original value, which is 0, (unless there is a cult that believes that owning my hair will allow them to perform Magic)

The assumption of "tomorrow's" prices is actually "today's" price. But people are hoping that in a year's time the price is NOT what it is today.

Woe unto the speculators.

You seem to think it will not be backed up by goods and services but we don't actually know how to figure out how much goods and services to sustain a price.

Actually you are right. If by the time the bubble bursts and we have sufficient goods and services that can be purchased with BitCoin

So, what is this number for this "suffcient goods and services"? The only way we find out is through the market process.

Who would want to spend a currency which is doomed to rise in the long term ?

Because Bitcoin, contrary to other currencies is deflationary, people will choose it for saving money rather than buying stuff.
So it is somewhat normal that there are mostly exchange services. Who would want to spend a currency which is doomed to rise in the long term ?

I think however that goods trade services are coming to spring up soon.

On a different note (but still somewhat related), what Bitcoin truly needs is an service that everyone would and will use. What I mean is basically this:  Let's say for example the guy who was going to set up a point-and-click/survey site that pays Bitcoins actually did get this up and running. The hope is that people who can't afford to mine (like myself) or others who just wish for a (somewhat) steady flow of a few Bitcoins use this. The dream would be if nearly every Bitcoiner used this service (or some other large and multi-person-ran service). In my opinion, Bitcoin would have a far easier time reaching parity with the USD if there were a FEW (not just one or 2) large, central services that gave people a small income of Bitcoins. This would help in 3 main ways:

1.) For people who don't have the time or skill to set up their own Bitcoin-earning service/product, these multi-person-ran businesses would help them earn a small yet fairly steady income of Bitcoins to trade on the market. This option would especially appeal to teens, who can't afford a high-end mining rig, or because they are students, they don't have the time for their own Bitcoin business.

2.) Besides helping out people who don't have the time nor money to mine or set up a Bitcoin business, "wealthy" Bitcoiners and the ones who DO mine/have Bitcoin services will earn a few extra Bitcoins from this, as well. This, again, will add value to Bitcoins, as more are earned and then traded. However, this would only add significant value to them if this "central earning service" was large enough that it catered to most all Bitcoiners, and if there were more than just a couple of these services.

3.) Besides allowing the users of these services to earn a few Bitcoins, the owners and employees of them would have a nice, fat fistful of golden Bitcoins that are constantly at their bidding. What we do NOT want is one or more of these services being ran by one, single person, as that person would, if their service was executed successfully, become unbelievably rich in Bitcoins. They may not immediately gain wealth, but over time, they would see an increasingly large cashflow circulating through their accounts. What we do want, instead of the "Bill Gates or Richard Branson of Bitcoins", is a business ran by several people, so the wealth could be shared, and we wouldn't have one main person making all of the market trades. Having several, semi-rich Bitcoiners would not shift the market, and make a few people making most of the trades, but instead would allow these people to largely influence the price of Bitcoins on the market. As opposed to CONTROLLING the price, influencing it would not let the price jump so randomly and be so unpredictable most of the time.

Well, that's all I have to say! Please tell me any comments you have on what I said, as I am interested in others' opinions on this subject.

What we do NOT want is one or more of these services being ran by one, single person, as that person would, if their service was executed successfully, become unbelievably rich in Bitcoins

Why don't YOU be that person, then when you become rich you can give away your coins to "people who don't have the time or skill to set up their own Bitcoin-earning service/product".

I think we need a mechanism where we can use resources of those who have so much they don't need all of them and then we can use them to assist those who have not had the good fortune of having their own mining machine.

Who would want to sell stuff for a currency which is likely to rise in the long term? Oh yeah, everyone. So the two sides to this equation work in opposite directions.

Honestly, I would not want to be rich in anything, including Bitcoins. And that's the truth.