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Title: Bitcointalk stats update - Bubble over? Post by: dnaleor on September 11, 2013, 04:54:21 AM Here is the update of the bitcointalk stats versus bitcoin price (mtGox)
(These charts are "smoothed" for better reading, raw data link below each chart) http://anonymouse.org/cgi-bin/anon-www.cgi/http://anonymouse.org/cgi-bin/anon-www.cgi/http://anonymouse.org/cgi-bin/anon-www.cgi/http://img802.imageshack.us/img802/815/guiu.png Raw data: http://anonymouse.org/cgi-bin/anon-www.cgi/http://anonymouse.org/cgi-bin/anon-www.cgi/http://anonymouse.org/cgi-bin/anon-www.cgi/http://img594.imageshack.us/img594/8748/6mda.png http://anonymouse.org/cgi-bin/anon-www.cgi/http://anonymouse.org/cgi-bin/anon-www.cgi/http://anonymouse.org/cgi-bin/anon-www.cgi/http://img824.imageshack.us/img824/4946/os8g.png Raw data: http://anonymouse.org/cgi-bin/anon-www.cgi/http://anonymouse.org/cgi-bin/anon-www.cgi/http://anonymouse.org/cgi-bin/anon-www.cgi/http://img109.imageshack.us/img109/6601/qj7o.png *** The number of new members and posts are stabilizing. I think we are hitting the new low. Try to compare with the previous bubble. When these numbers are stable, the price will go up again in the next months... We saw the new low of the price at 60 USD. I declare that the bubble is over :D PS: if you find these charts usefull, consider a small donation ;) Title: Re: Bitcointalk stats update - Bubble over? Post by: prophetx on September 11, 2013, 05:58:23 AM interesting, perhaps someone can run a regression analysis on this
Title: Re: Bitcointalk stats update - Bubble over? Post by: dnaleor on September 11, 2013, 09:50:15 AM interesting, perhaps someone can run a regression analysis on this I have the necessary software to do this. I'll give it a try Title: Re: Bitcointalk stats update - Bubble over? Post by: RationalSpeculator on September 11, 2013, 01:40:59 PM Very interesting, thanks for sharing!
Title: Re: Bitcointalk stats update - Bubble over? Post by: dnaleor on September 11, 2013, 01:46:30 PM Very interesting, thanks for sharing! no problem :) I like statistics :D I try to do an update every 10 days (sometimes I don't have time for that) Tomorrow I'll try to do regression analysis. Keep an eye on this topic for updates ;) Title: Re: Bitcointalk stats update - Bubble over? Post by: el_rlee on September 11, 2013, 01:47:26 PM Astonishing.
That's pretty anti-whale-pro-swarm theory, ha? Title: Re: Bitcointalk stats update - Bubble over? Post by: dnaleor on September 11, 2013, 01:53:06 PM Astonishing. That's pretty anti-whale-pro-swarm theory, ha? indeed :) I never believed in the whale theory. Off course, it's a factor. But maybe whales are atracted by swarms ;) Title: Re: Bitcointalk stats update - Bubble over? Post by: dnaleor on September 17, 2013, 02:49:46 PM Chart will be updated again on the 21th of this month, but when I check the stats, I can already see that we are still stable.
I call (again) that >100 USD is a new stable platform for the bitcoin price. The bubble is over. We've entered the "Triple Digits Era" possible a new move to 135-150 USD (bitstamp) is in the cards/charts in the next days :) edit: the newchart will probably have some statistical analysis ;) Title: Re: Bitcointalk stats update - Bubble over? Post by: RationalSpeculator on September 17, 2013, 03:00:18 PM Chart will be updated again on the 21th of this month, but when I check the stats, I can already see that we are still stable. I call (again) that >100 USD is a new stable platform for the bitcoin price. The bubble is over. We've entered the "Triple Digits Era" possible a new move to 135-150 USD (bitstamp) is in the cards/charts in the next days :) edit: the newchart will probably have some statistical analysis ;) Thanks for the heads up. Your charts are great but your interpretation seems biased to the bullish side. Even if most indicators you track flatten out that does not indicate a rising price perse. For example the first half year of 2012 also showed flat lines for most indicators but price did trend downwards in that period. I would also like to point out that after the collapse in 2011 there was also a brief period in August 2011 where price went up again and all indicators also stopped falling for a month or so. However, the collapse of price and all other indicators continued thereafter for many months. Title: Re: Bitcointalk stats update - Bubble over? Post by: dnaleor on September 17, 2013, 03:09:13 PM Chart will be updated again on the 21th of this month, but when I check the stats, I can already see that we are still stable. I call (again) that >100 USD is a new stable platform for the bitcoin price. The bubble is over. We've entered the "Triple Digits Era" possible a new move to 135-150 USD (bitstamp) is in the cards/charts in the next days :) edit: the newchart will probably have some statistical analysis ;) Thanks for the heads up. Your charts are great but your interpretation seems biased to the bullish side. Even if most indicators you track flatten out that does not indicate a rising price perse. For example the first half year of 2012 also showed flat lines for most indicators but price did trend downwards in that period. I would also like to point out that after the collapse in 2011 there was also a brief period in August 2011 where price went up again and all indicators also stopped falling for a month or so. However, the collapse of price and all other indicators continued thereafter for many months. you are right... I know i'm a bull, but hey, we are in the speculation subforum ;) The charts are provided so everyone can make their own anaysis :) Title: Re: Bitcointalk stats update - Bubble over? Post by: el_rlee on September 17, 2013, 04:06:41 PM Thanks. This thread does not get enough attention.
Title: Re: Bitcointalk stats update - Bubble over? Post by: rampantparanoia on September 17, 2013, 04:09:48 PM Title: Re: Bitcointalk stats update - Bubble over? Post by: dnaleor on September 28, 2013, 11:24:31 PM excuse me for the delayed update. I was really busy the last weeks...
However, I prepared my excel data file for easy regression analysis, so expect some new insight on the 1st of october! I checked the data already, and we are still stable. I think this is really promising... The 100 USD mark could be the new 'normal' :) edit: due to the fact that regression analysis takes some time, I will update these charts 2 times a month: on the first and on the 16th of each month Title: Re: Bitcointalk stats update - Bubble over? Post by: smoothie on September 29, 2013, 02:32:00 AM excuse me for the delayed update. I was really busy the last weeks... However, I prepared my excel data file for easy egression analysis, so expet some new insight on the 1st of october! I checked the data already, and we are still stable. I think this is really promising... The 100 USD mark could be the new 'normal' :) edit: due to the fact that regression analysis takes some time, I will update these charts 2 times a month: on the first and on the 16th of each month Looking forward to the updates. Interesting information. Thanks! :) Title: Re: Bitcointalk stats update - Bubble over? Post by: el_rlee on September 29, 2013, 03:52:42 AM May I carefully ask of it would be significantly more work to also include bitstamp data?
Title: Re: Bitcointalk stats update - Bubble over? Post by: b!z on September 29, 2013, 03:55:07 AM Images are not loading, can you check if they are still working?
Title: Re: Bitcointalk stats update - Bubble over? Post by: SheHadMANHands on September 29, 2013, 05:07:38 AM OP, where does it say there must exist a consistent, linear relationship between the value of bitcoin and number of new members on a forum board?
Title: Re: Bitcointalk stats update - Bubble over? Post by: b!z on September 29, 2013, 05:32:40 AM OP, where does it say there must exist a consistent, linear relationship between the value of bitcoin and number of new members on a forum board? It is not consistent, but usually new signups = new interest = more buyers. Title: Re: Bitcointalk stats update - Bubble over? Post by: Zangelbert Bingledack on September 29, 2013, 08:01:45 AM I think the recent dropoff has more to do with discussion spilling over to reddit.com/r/Bitcoi (http://www.reddit.com/r/Bitcoin/)n and elsewhere off-site. Also, the speculation forum seems by far the most active, so it should be obvious that stable pricing will curtail activity, especially considering how stable the prices feel relative to the instability of the recent past.
Title: Re: Bitcointalk stats update - Bubble over? Post by: dnaleor on September 29, 2013, 08:57:38 AM Images are not loading, can you check if they are still working? They are loading for me, maybe it's your internet connection? Don't know... Title: Re: Bitcointalk stats update - Bubble over? Post by: dnaleor on September 29, 2013, 09:00:38 AM May I carefully ask of it would be significantly more work to also include bitstamp data? I can do that, yes. But I've chosen Gox for historical reasons: the data goes back further in time... I would like to add bitcoinaverage data, but don't find the raw data... I'll see what I can do ;) Title: Re: Bitcointalk stats update - Bubble over? Post by: el_rlee on September 29, 2013, 09:21:39 AM May I carefully ask of it would be significantly more work to also include bitstamp data? I can do that, yes. But I've chosen Gox for historical reasons: the data goes back further in time... I would like to add bitcoinaverage data, but don't find the raw data... I'll see what I can do ;) A thousand thanks, Gox price is more and more disconnecting from reality. Title: Re: Bitcointalk stats update - Bubble over? Post by: smoothie on September 29, 2013, 10:04:23 AM May I carefully ask of it would be significantly more work to also include bitstamp data? I can do that, yes. But I've chosen Gox for historical reasons: the data goes back further in time... I would like to add bitcoinaverage data, but don't find the raw data... I'll see what I can do ;) A thousand thanks, Gox price is more and more disconnecting from reality. Have to agree here. Title: Re: Bitcointalk stats update - Bubble over? Post by: Keldel on September 29, 2013, 11:12:27 AM Interesting chart, thank you!
Maybe bitcoin is just transitioning from an experiment to a real store of wealth for more and more people? Hardly anyone registers on gold forums or googles gold, yet a lot of people trust gold to store their wealth! I hope one day bitcoin goes down on google trends because everyone just knows about it already! Title: Re: Bitcointalk stats update - Bubble over? Post by: wachtwoord on September 29, 2013, 11:33:21 AM May I carefully ask of it would be significantly more work to also include bitstamp data? I can do that, yes. But I've chosen Gox for historical reasons: the data goes back further in time... I would like to add bitcoinaverage data, but don't find the raw data... I'll see what I can do ;) A thousand thanks, Gox price is more and more disconnecting from reality. Have to agree here. Come on, it's <13% difference. On the scales depicted the figure this isn't very important. Title: Re: Bitcointalk stats update - Bubble over? Post by: dnaleor on September 29, 2013, 12:43:10 PM I have found the raw data of bitcoinaverage.com
I'll add a second line on the chart :) The regression analysis however will be done with the data of mt gox... Title: Re: Bitcointalk stats update - Bubble over? Post by: SheHadMANHands on September 29, 2013, 04:54:00 PM OP, where does it say there must exist a consistent, linear relationship between the value of bitcoin and number of new members on a forum board? It is not consistent, but usually new signups = new interest = more buyers. Correct me if I'm wrong... you appear to be comparing the exchange rate of bitcoin graphically with, for example, the rate of new members joining in these forum boards. I assume by this you mean (new members/day). Shouldn't you be plotting "total members" verse the bitcoin price, instead of the rate of membership change? Then you would see that, in recent months, the price has been rising in a relatively linear fashion, as is the number of members. There's been no exponential growth, as with previous two crashes, to draw the same comparison. Growth over few months appears more linear. Title: Re: Bitcointalk stats update - Bubble over? Post by: dserrano5 on September 29, 2013, 05:59:42 PM Correct me if I'm wrong... you appear to be comparing the exchange rate of bitcoin graphically with, for example, the rate of new members joining in these forum boards. I assume by this you mean (new members/day). Shouldn't you be plotting "total members" verse the bitcoin price, instead of the rate of membership change? Then you would see that, in recent months, the price has been rising in a relatively linear fashion, as is the number of members. There's been no exponential growth, as with previous two crashes, to draw the same comparison. Growth over few months appears more linear. The problem with this is that the price can go down, however the number of members "can't". Title: Re: Bitcointalk stats update - Bubble over? Post by: dnaleor on October 10, 2013, 12:42:51 AM New update :)
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=308653 Quote Hi people, here is the fresh update of the bitcointalk stats vs bitcoin price. *I added bitcoinaverage.com data (brown line). *I left the data for the days of the downtime of the forum "blank" so the chart doesn't show "wild swings" (I'm very busy atm, so the promised regression analysis isn't yet finished. I hope to get it done for the next update) After the downtime of the forum and TSR closing, Bitcoins seems stronger than ever: *number of new posts slitly going up *number of new members stable *number of new topics stable *number of pageviews are high, although we should note that this is a volatile number And... the value of bitcoin is just "flat" for the last 40 days (ignoring the few hours after the takedown of TSR)... Really stable Bitcoin value. The future looks bright! :D Am I too bullish? Have an opinion about these charts? Please post your comments below :) Previous discussion: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=292175.0 charts: "smoothed chart": http://img842.imageshack.us/img842/7905/gcca.png raw data link (http://img28.imageshack.us/img28/5951/0psu.png) "smoothed log chart": http://img18.imageshack.us/img18/6730/6a6k.png raw data link (http://img266.imageshack.us/img266/4439/76jf.png) Feel free to share these charts, but please don't remove the QR-code, thanks! :) |
