Bitcoin Forum

Looks like bitcoin finally broke through the $14 barrier, and it is holding long enough in the $13 barrier long enough to test that $13.5 dollar bid wall and set a new psychological price of $13 a bitcoin. 

The bid wall has fallen from over 10,000 bitcoins to 7,000. But it is obviously not a fake bid wall as it has not disappeared and is still holding strong. Who ever is buying so many bitcoins at $13.5 is taking a huge risk as I think that once that bid wall is sold we will be testing the $12 pricing soon. Maybe one last gamble by someone to keep the bitcoin price artificially high? I think that this 13.5 bidwall may hold for a few days and we should see $12 pricing by Sunday/Monday.

It seems the price will not shoot up to $14 range easily as there are many sell orders between 13.9 and 13.95.

This is my take on the current bitcoin price and where it is going. Please share what you think and what you think about that $13.5 bidwall and how long it will hold up? 

You want the price to be lower...?

I want to keep this post technical and where you feel the bitcoin price is going. I do not want it to be a debate on how one should feel where bitcoin price is going, or how I am a bad troll because I think the bitcoin price is falling and will be lower. Lets look at the obvious, it is in a huge downward trend since the peak at $30.

If I wanted bitcoin to be higher or lower, this is where I feel the price is going.

Well it is the weekend now so it could very well be tested in the next 48 hours.

There was one single bid of over 7,000 BTC at $13.50 yesterday, and that bid was retracted and replaced with one below 6,000 BTC. So the wall is weaker. The price is getting close to the wall; there are only 750 BTC above the wall.

Once the wall falls, it's straight down to $13.2.

Remember, every day miners generate about $100,000 in BTC at current prices, and some (most?) of that is sold. To keep the price up, somebody has to put about $100,000 of new money into the system each day. If new money slows down, we should see what we're seeing - a slow, steady price erosion.

Until 2012 when the bitcoin per block is 25? You think?

Someone is trying to do one last gamble at 13.5, I think he is stupid because if he pulled out of that position it would let bitcoin fall into the $12's or lower. He could then buy at that lower price. However, once that wall falls and the price goes lower, it should all be downhill from there. I do not think anyone will attempt again to try and hold the price higher with those bid walls.

This person probably already took huge losses already and is trying keep what value he has. But this bid wall will probably just add to his huge losses already.

could be that someones interest are more long term, and a stable bitcoin helps it get adopted.


he might not view them as loses when he picked up most of his coin at a much much lower price...mining.



they were actually beating down the wall early AM this morn, they couldnt get through but it was a good fight.

This is what I'm thinking.  Maybe an early adopter trying to provide a support.  Looks to be a losing battle though, the ask side is swelling up.  If that wall gets taken down or out, it's going to be very interesting. 

Except a lot of miners are holding their coins, not selling. So its not true that it takes $100,000 each day to keep the price up.

>Except a lot of miners are holding their coins, not selling. So its not true that it takes $100,000 each day to keep the price up.

it is a poor guestimation based on the idea that 80% of existing miners are new and want to immediately sell to get back their investment costs.

and yeah the number is bogus, but the idea is true, we do need money coming into the system daily, to keep up the price. What that number is, i dont know, but I am sure it is less than 100k.

Ad while retail growth is not where I would like to see it, looks like gambling growth is picking up. With Us restrictions on internet gambling(yay, Freedom!!!!), it could be one of the killer apps that keeps bitcoin propped up until traditional commerce becomes bigger in bitcoin. that and failing economies.

Do any of you want to speculate why this person decided to put a bidwall at $13.5? Does $13.5 have any relevance?

Is he thinking that a $12 dollar bitcoin will look much much worse than a $13.6 bitcoin?

What do you think?


Looks like the battle is going to begin, they are 80 bitcoin away from hitting his final defensive wall at $13.5. Lets see how long he will hold in there!

Make that 2 BTC

It is the weekend. People need money for beer and other vices. It will go back up when we go back to work Monday.

If he is an early adopter who sold 10k bitcoins around $25, it may be a great time for him to buy some back at whatever price he sees fit. If was to place a 7k wall at 12, it may as well bottom out at $12.50 without ever filling his order. So maybe he just wants to get his 7ks before that happens - even at the risk of seeing further price depreciation down the line.

A smart investor always considers what his/her bid does to the market.

What day do EURO transfers come back online?

18th..possibly..

And then the fees come back the 27th?

https://support.mtgox.com/entries/20273158-announcement-extension-of-reduced-trade-fees

The wall is gone.  The price just dropped below 13.5.  There's no support until $13.10, and no significant support above $12.90. 

what site is that oldtimer?

http://bitcoinity.org

Bounce back to 13.49/13.50 could go to ~13.60, and then back down...

I missed that , here is the current one now:
{"ticker":{"high":13.79991,"low":13.39999,"avg":13.639978648,"vwap":13.57906008,"vol":25791,"last":13.5,"buy":13.5,"sell":13.50047}}

Thank you oldminer.

What the heck happened? Does those charts show that someone actually sold bitcoin into that bidwall?

People who think it's going to drop to 13.0 might sell at 13.5.

Looks like bid wall moved to $13.  Massive amount of ask walls up.  Yeah, someone is working very hard to get the prices down this weekend.

http://bitcoincharts.com/charts/mtgoxUSD#rg5zvztgMzbgBzm1g10zm2g25zi2gMFI says it's not time to go back in.  Not by a long shot.  Money is still flowing OUT, and has been the entire time this thing was utterly flatlined.  When the trend reverses there may be quite a bit of pent-up demand and we could rocket up -- or not, if this was someone expertly manipulating bid walls to cash out on the ask side the whole time.  Only time and charts will tell.

Mined 2 coins to sell again, but going to risk the Monday/Tuesday effect to sell them.  Yeah, I'm ignoring technicals for pure faith-based speculation.  That never ends well in the real world -- but then again, it's only $3 or so considering my first buy target is tenatively $12 anyway.

It looks more like there's a fixed amount of cash available to the buy side over the weekend, and that cash supply is slowly being used up as routine liquidation of Bitcoins take place. This slowly drives the price down. There's little sign of manipulation.

Well I think the wall @ $13.50 varied from 8-9K BTC's...you can see there that buy took that wall out and everything above it in one hit..

Wow:

{"ticker":{"high":13.79991,"low":13.12454,"avg":13.611147658,"vwap":13.564531064,"vol":24066,"last":13.12454,"buy":13.13372,"sell":13.1991}}

I'm loving this.

Same. I love cheap Bitcoins.

http://news.sky.com/sky-news/content/StaticFile/jpg/2008/Jan/Week2/1632471.jpg

RALLY!

lol..indeed...

Hey, it went from $13.40 to $13.42 but I had no support..  :P

I think we might be going to $12..

How nice would it be picking up BTC's for $12..lol...happy days  ;D

Depends on whether they ever go above $12 again after that.

I see blood all over the charts...this could knock down the $12 wall...

What, you don't see all the bull flags?  ::)

All I see is a bull asking to be put down lol

I still see $50 in the next month or 2. Its still early days...

We'll see.  My guess is still that we won't see anything above $20 for the rest of the year.

To hazard a guess, I'd say we'll see the future before the year is out...... ;)

Or failing that, we might see December.

I think this is a really good point. Even if 50% of the miners were holding on to the coins, it would be hard to see 50k put into bitcoin each day...  I just don't see it happening.
And no, buying mining equipment has no relation to this.

People have been selling for weeks and considering the volumes are much larger than 7200 a day it's not just us miners.  There's plenty of cash available, it's just not ready to go back in.  New deposits have little to do with it. 

Now, if the price drops to $11 and you still don't see buyers lining up you may have a point.  I'm sure I'm not the only one waiting for either a resistance level to hold or a clear up trend to manifest before I start building a long BTC position.

The market's weekend behavior is instructive. You can't wire-transfer funds into Mt. Gox on a weekend, but trading continues. Each weekend, we see the buy side slowly depleted, and the price drops about $0.50 to $1. That's an indication that a steady inflow of funds is needed to prop up the price.

sold off all positions on thurs....buying in low on the weekend...im half in right now @13....waiting for @12 to buy in the rest of the way (with a small hedge @10 just in case)

i love the weekend. :)

Looks like the  bitcoin value protectors put up a wall about $13 at over 5,000 bitcoins, but that is down to 2,800. They tried to shore up their defenses with some bidwalls in the 13.30's but that was taken out pretty quickly.
They are losing the battle with the inevitable fall into the 12's. I guess they know that if the value falls into the $12's and stays down there for any length of time it will be a losing battle from that point on.

I think in the $12's its going to be a tough battle at that point to fall into the $11's. You will have many new speculators coming in around that point thinking that bitcoin will go back up. Eventually it will fall to a more stable rate, but may take some days.

If you want to see $50 then start pushing the price up. Why try for $12?

If the buyers actually see this as a battle to keep the price as high as possible they're just stupid. Obviously the buyers should want the price to be as low as possible. If they're buying at 13, it should be because they think that's the lowest price they can get all the coins they want without being outbidden. Paying more than they have to will only make them run out of money faster, and then the price will crash.

I'm not trying for $12 - I'm simply going with the trend. I'd suggest you do the same unless you want to lose money lol

3 "A":
And now tell me, who is determining the trend?
As for now, i only see forum full of FUD with the downtrend. Hate such manipulation attemps,they are sick.
Also I don't see the bearish trend right now. It's simple sideways. If spreading FUD wouldn't stop on the forum, yes, strong bears are coming, but have your ever thought that in price of profitability we are endangering weak Bitcoin economy - it might even crash under the big bear.It need uptrend support now.
PS: this wasn't adressed particularly to you, take it easy :) my thoughts only

Looks like the $13.5 barrier is finally not able to hold anymore for a 2nd time. I must admit it fought well and I was thinking it won for a while as the price pushed into the 14's and stagnated around high $13's. However, the battle for the single digits is hardly over.

If the price manipulators (a few people who putting up big walls and buying so the price will not drop) can't hold it from falling into the $11 dollar range this will be a clear victory for the bears and the price should push into the single digits.

I believe that the price manipulators will throw every last dollar they can in the $12 dollar range, so it will take a bit before they give and let the price fall into the $11's. It will be a long battle.

I think they will lose in the end and bitcoins will be cheap enough for everyone to own and make it reasonable to finally invest in it long term for people who came in late and want to own it as an investment.     

well, I'm bearish after the unsuccessfull rally attempt, in cash from about 14 going down. I will rebuy at 11, really doubt that 10 will be broken, and general consensus is to start buying at 10-12, so that's where the turnaround will happen.

$13.50 bid wall holding up, but for how long?

"Mr Gorbachev, tear down this wall!"

Well under $13 is where the action is at the moment.  Either way, I only care that the price moves.  Up or down, it doesn't matter.  It just has to keep moving.

The price is going to go way down. There are more coin's being mined than coins being bought on exchanges. With difficulty increases and the price of BTC so low, miners are expanding their rigs to compensate which compounds the problem even further. Add to that the bad press lately and it gets even worse.

Even if businesses accept BTC, they are faced with the problem of selling a product in the morning for a set amount of BTC only to find out  later in the day that it went down 50 cents to a dollar or more in value.

So IMO Bitcoin will continue to make people (read miners) a profit for several more months then will die out. Hopefully I am wrong.

So on the investing side, investors should also see this trend and realize it will never go higher than 15 ever again.

I so adore those "never again" idiocies, are there children speculating bitcoins now? :) Look, the price may go down to zero or it may go up to a million, and saying "it will never again move to 15$" makes you look like a fool now, and will be even more so when the price is above 30.

Well, I hope you are right and that I am wrong. Time will tell.

Ok sorry for being rude but you really aren't the first to say that btc will "never" do something, it is getting old. I can see future no better than you, but one thing I know for sure - bitcoins are not ending any time soon. how much they will cost today, tomorrow, in a year is only speculatively interesting, but "never" is a little bit too long term. I bet people said that you could never talk to another person across continents just 100 years ago. They look stupid in retrospective :)

What is this about price manipulators? And why do you think they're on the buy side? As far as I can tell, the only manipulators are driving the price DOWN, not up. :P

BTW, bitcoins are already cheap enough for everyone to own one, and nobody came in late. This is still early adopter territory. This throws the rest of your speculation into question as well.