Bitcoin Forum

WARNING:
My high tech team analyzed the Bitcoin industry rigorously and found that it is only worth it if you purchase 1+ Terahash or more Bitcoin miner, most of them won't ship until December 2013 or later.

The difficulty will be well over 500,000,000 millions soon. At that difficulty, it will render all of your Bitcoin miners useless.
You would be better of just buy the Bitcoins out right, then to mine them.



Related thread:

Bitcoin Mining PCI-E Card 10Gh/s card for only $100
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=287706.0

USB block erupters are now useless. $5 - $7 each.
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=277330.0

LOL  ;D ;D

Posting shit everyone... ::)

http://bistatepetfoodpantry.org/wp-content/uploads/2010/06/cat-on-computer1.jpg

Thanks for that hearty laugh, Pedrog!

And I do appreciate the mining advice, Tom, no matter what species your team of experts is.

@Pedrog

I took your suggestion and checked out his website.  You're assessment on it was spot on. :)

Haha, there's quite a collection of facts in there!  :D

What is this? Scarevertising?  ::)

WARNING!!!!!

My back of the envelope calculator clearly states that buying an ASIC right now is a fool's game.

Even if it's realllly expensive.  And fast.

Poor Tom is actually afflicted with the mental retardation.. Don't be mean to him.. But then again don't listen to a single thing that comes out of his mouth either.

Said one prisoner to the other "Just don't squeal and we'll be okay!"

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Prisoner%27s_dilemma

There are more and more threads popping up recently which basically warn people away from buying ASIC hardware, or if they still want to buy then to spend a huge amount of money (that most people can't afford).

There are three reasons I can think of for such postings:

1 - The poster has ASICs on order and doesn't want more competition and less bitcoins generated.  He has yet to join the ASIC party and doesn't want to be holding the bag when unprofitability strikes.

2 - The poster already has an ASIC and is seeing the number of bitcoins produced reduce by 30% every 10 days.  ROI is becoming more difficult.

3 - The poster is simply a nice guy and wants to save others he has no relationship with at all some time and money.

All considered, #3 is very unlikely.  The pleading for people to stop buying ASICs is becoming more desperate.

All generation 1 miners will be rendered unless very soon.   Gen 2 will get ROI depending on WHEN YOU GET YOUR MINER compared to the rest of the queue and others competing for lower difficulty slots.  It is all about when you get your ASIC miner.

Is this post even serious? High tech team? Please...

Follow pedrog's words of wisdom and visit Actor Tom's website.  All will be revealed.

EDIT:  If after visiting his website, you can keep a straight face while reading any of Actor Tom's posts on this forum...  most impressive.

Well, if the difficulty goes that high, it means coins will be incredibly hard to get.

Which means that the demand will outstrip the supply.

Which means that the price of BTC will skyrocket.

The network is supposed to be self-stabilizing. Time for a real test, I guess.

Won't people with the best/newest mining equipment just take a higher percentage of the mined coins? And isn't the number of BTC created per day a small enough percentage of the total BTC to not really make a huge difference in supply? And won't new ASICs keep catching up with the difficulty (as new ASICS are what is driving the hash rate up)?

I'm not a miner, and happy to learn from opposing viewpoint, if my view isn't quite on target.

Currently my 60gh single uses $1.50 in electricity to generate 1 btc. At 10x the current difficulty it will cost $15 to generate 1 btc. At 100x, or 11,262,855,200 difficulty, it will cost $150 and take about 1 year to generate 1 btc.

1 btc currently equals $140

Do you think I will be turning it off anytime soon?

At a 30% increase each time, it will take 13 more difficulty changes to reach near 11 billion. 13 x 11.5 days each cycle is 150 more days til we get to a point where I may have to shut down my miner if things continue as they are.

Yes, that makes sense, and is also the way I see things. But if you and everyone else shut down your existing mining units, isn't it because others are running newer, faster, more efficient units that will easily take up the slack from the exit of slower units from the network?

I'm assuming your statement is a reply to mine (though I'm not positive). And I'm not trying to be argumentative, just learn by presenting my understanding.

EDIT: after reading your subsequent post, I don't think you were addressing my comment at all!

And how much is your electricity cost?  Must be next to nothing, if you even pay for it. I think you made a serious miss calculation. How about you show the math?

I'll do the math.

A 60GH/s single uses about 280 watts (correct me if I'm wrong). That is 6.720 kwh per day.

It mines 0.2679 BTC a day. That means it takes 3.7327 days to mine a coin. 3.7327 * 6.720 = 25.084 kwh to mine a coin.

If it only costs $1.50 to mine a coin then your electricity must cost 1.50 / 25.084 = 6 cents per kwh. That seems a bit low.

I get .06  here if I am +25kw peak demand.

My electric cost is $0.044-$0.076/kwh. My single does 63.5gh/s @ 310 watts. I have seen the wattage vary from 306-333watts, but its at 312 right now.

Goto http://allchains.info/calc.html and plug in those numbers. These are just rough estimates though. I'm not counting pool fee, etc.. I used $0.06 for electric cost., so it cost me about $0.45/day to run my single. And currently it makes .28btc/day. So about 3.5 days to generate 1 btc. 3.5days * $.45/day is about $1.5 to generate a btc.

Do you really need to see more math? My numbers aren't exact, I'm just trying to guesstimate how long my single will be viable for mining. Much longer than this troll post would have you believe.

By my calculations, it'd take me 19.4kw to generate 1BTC(30GH@110watts).  At $.08/kw I think that's about $1.55.

Thing is your original post will mislead people also, by not showing the math and your situation being the exception, not the rule.

My single pulls 330W(and my KWH/$ is double yours easy if not more, and IIRC most of the USA is in a similar range), don't forget you now have to remove that heat(and this will vary from situation to situation). Historically, miners are not going to mine a such a loss IE 11Billion Difficulty with a BFL Single 60Gh.  A historical fact, before ASIC's(FPGA were around for a year, and this is when bitcoin had its first bubble to $30), if it took longer than about 6 months to get a ROI, people started shutting down. After the block reward halving that moved to about 8-10 months(estimate as only a few months passed before ASIC's started showing up).

Reason I'm making a point of this, is that this over buying of ASIC's is screwing many people. They don't do the math and loose money. Or they do the math incorrectly and don't look at the available facts and loose money. It's sad to see all these companies making a killing by  scamming their so called customers(More like swindled investors).

It is possible to get 4X256Gh/s to work. However there are many delays, also the cooling problem can be critical.

Thank you for the advice, however I will switch to Scrypt mining before the SHA-2 raw mining.

It's so funny to watch these kind of posts. Oh well, bitcoin will still prevail... I hope.

This is nonsense.

What you should or should not buy depends on Mh/$ of the devices, taking a look at the cost of power at your particular location.

I'd buy block erupters if they were $5 each.

That's $15/GH/s at 7.5w?

At that price I would buy it, just for the fun...

My expert market analysts have decided the opposite is true.

Only buy 1 Th or less of Bitcoin miners or else you will be unprofitable.

[spoiler]
http://media.techeblog.com/elephant//ul/2758-450x-computer_dog_5.jpg

Everyone knows dogs are smarter than cats...  ;D  :D  ;)
[/spoiler]

So what I'm gathering from this original post is "Only let people who want to invest $3000+ invest in mining bitcoins so they can control the market" honestly, a TH/s+ miner will ruin bitcoin because then on a few people will be able to afford to mine bitcoins profitably. But then again, if you're mining in a pool i guess it doesn't matter. The issue is nobody wants to see the bitcoin market owned by only a few people.

That all being said, unless you're getting a good price, buying something like Block Erupters or lower will be unprofitable.

Hahaha, so much win here.  :D

Pedrog ty- I try... sometimes.  ;)


On a more serious note, this thread title is misleading. What really matters is a combination of:
- $$$$ per Gh
- Watts per Gh
- Time of delivery

No factor is more important than the other... You can buy 1,000 Gh delivered tomorrow, but if that 1,000 Gh cost you $75/Gh (ASICMINER USBs), it is unlikely you will break even. On the opposite end of the spectrum... you can buy 1,000 Gh at $3.00/Gh (CoinTerra IV Jan), but if it is delivered in Febuarary 2014 it is unlikely you will break even.

All factors are interchangeable and ROI depends on one factor just as much as the other. It basically comes down to trusting your source of mining equipment that they will deliver the miners to the specifications originally advertised AND delivering on time or early. If manufacturers are a month or more late, most mining hardware will likely lose money.

Utilize safe forms of payments such as Paypal and Credit Cards to protect yourself. Look for a company with a solid customer protection plan. Read through all the caveats of the mining protection plans, as some of these companies are kind of slimy.... some of the customer protection plans really aren't worth much at all due to the unfavorable wording.

My two satoshis.  ;D

Mining is the only way to get BTC anonymously.

I'm surprised Actor Tom Trong didn't blame the Jooooooooz like he does on his webpage. :D

Zionist != Jooooooz  ;D

Wrong, you should calculate it in term of price per GH/s and KWH/GH/s.

oh look is the same thing again lmao

lol, and when difficulty is x5, do you realise you will be needing 5x the time to mine your bitcoin (5x the electricity too...) so depending on btc price your number are way off

I guess he was right lol, after all the jibes and cracks this guy was right, must feel like noah when everybody was cracking on him about a great flood until it started to pour, the hash rate will be well over 500 million by the end of the year. Hence even a dead clock is right, twice a day...  :o

I don't know about "useless". Most early gen 1's made a good ROI really fast and now they can just mine as long as BTC price > electricity. Even when electricity is > BTC price I know I will still be mining simply for the speculation on an increasing BTC price.

For example I mined on my graphics card a while back when I was technically losing money every day due to the cost of electricity. But my video card was making 0.1 BTC a day....which lucky for me I still have that saved up and if I were to sell it now, my revenue per day for those days I mined with my video card is close to $20/day, which is far greater than the electricity I paid for :D

Those Gen 1 miner is really lucky that they get their pre-order fast. I believe Gen 2 miner still far from break-even...

There goes mining =(

The window for ROI on any new hardware will be a short one as soon as they ship because there already exist a huge farm of miners.  You will have a small window to mine before difficulty scale with more miners lighting up.  I think buying any mining hardware is a very risky proposition because the difficulty scales so high and fast it can render your assets worthless in days not months.

I LOLED

.

I hope opted to cloud mine - at least you can sell your GHs quickly instead of trying to sell your miner on ebay or locally - it's a bit of a hassle.  Check out the could mining site in my signature.  There's no fees or transaction charges for trading BTC for GHS.  It's righly just below .1 BTC for 1 GHS.  Decent deals. 

High tech team!!!11111!!!!!

Does that mean other researchers are not high tech?

I still think these predictions are wrong, I am going on nicely with 475 GH/s

Don't understand your comment???

Bitcoin is designed not to let miner make money, but the one making the tools....

I dont think 1+ Terahash or more hardware can ROI. They are coming out 10 Terahash in near future....

This, just like the gold rush..

 ;D
Depends on price for this 1 Terahash miner. If it is small enought, it might ROI when buyig next year as well

and the time when u get thoose 1 Ths miners difficulty will jump again

Wel, well, well 2015!

his guess wasnt bad :D