Bitcoin Forum

https://i.imgur.com/XsQZwoL.png

Looking at the price graph, I say the price movements this year much more closely resemble the rise in 2012 than they do the rise in 2011.

In 2011 the peak was followed by a downward slide. In 2012, the peak was followed by a nearly flat plateau. Now that we are a couple months past the peak in 2013, it looks like we are forming a plateau. I suspect we will never drop below 100 again.

Since there was a larger rise this time than in 2012, there could be a much longer plateau before we start rising again. So we will start to see the price rising slowly over the next 6 months to a year, and the price will noticeably take off sometime in late 2014 or even 2015.

Similarties to the past occure in every stock in future, but they are not the same. Its even more possible that we see a downward for 1-2 months. In September markets tend to fall in generall, well 2013 not because we have the FED flooding dollars. In theory of Kostolanys egg we should see a rise in price in October.

Results in the past give no guarantee for the future. Sometimes they give indications though :)

If that pattern repeats price should go to $300-$500 in 2.5 months time.

It looks like we aren't repeating either one.

Looks like you're speaking too soon.

as long as we are repeating them all anyway i don´t care in which order...

wishful thinking

you might be proven right, or wrong

no decent argument detected

next please

 ;)

Why would we see a repeat of one of 2 options? Its highly unlikely for this to be like either of the past two "major price events"

If it is, interesting.

But to say that "Hey it looks kinda like XXXX, therefore we should see this.." is stupid as hell. All market action looks like something in the past until a point.

We're not repeating anything, because this is the only year in which a major exchange is having money problems.

This is a good point.

Never say never we may drop below 100 at some point if bitcoin crashes for whatever reason especially if it becomes centralized

It all depends on how the MtGox withdrawal problem ends.

You're right the rise this year was bigger, and the plateau may be a bit longer, but there are such promising project on the way namely Buttercoin which I expect will bring the next huge price rise closer to the shorter end of your estimate - in about 6 months.

The rise of 2013 was much higher than the rise of 2012.  Some people keep speaking of the obvious "line" on the log chart. However I am having trouble finding this line and in fact I can draw several lines which would allow btc to go much lower than it is now before going up again. I have plotted a couple for reference.

https://i.imgur.com/LTvJ9B6.jpg

The low volume and the lack of significant bid depth on mtgox that continues to fail to fill in above 125 seems to confirm my suspicion that it isn't ready to go higher at this point. I think this ordeal with the bid depth was an inflection point for this Jul-Aug rally.  

I think your post is a very good one TERA.

Indeed the long term growth line points to lower prices.

If you draw this line from the start in 2010, prices will not fall that deep ($80). But if you draw this line from 2011 prices will fall very deep ($40).

The question is: will percentage growth continue to be the same, will it go down, or will it go up?

In the past it has gone down. As you can see in above chart percentage growth was a lot steeper/higher in 2010 than in 2011/2012/2013. This means, it will likely continue to fall which is logical. It's much easier to tenfold when you have 1000 users, then when you have 100,000 users.

So we should look at the line starting in 2011 which indicates prices will fall to $40. And that only if the percentage growth does NOT go down compared to 2011, which is questionable. It may very well be that growth will end up being less in 2013 compared to 2011 and a new line will need to be drawn in the future. In that case price may hit $20. Ofcourse these are lows that are only reached once and no one will be able to buy there. But the price will hover just above it for a month or so.

Ofcourse due to the very small market cap there is always a small chance for a black swan (irrational billionaires, economy collapse, illegalization of bitcoin, ...) and price growth instead accelerates and the low was $65 2 months back.  But since this is not based on historical price growth of bitcoin chances are low.

So I think it is wise to not be all in. But also to not be all out.

Nobody responding to my great argument right above here why price will likely go down. Anyone sees holes in my reasoning?

If bitcoin is meant to be a currency, and not a roller coaster ride from one of the Final Destination movies, it will grow at a steady pace - which means it must either drop first, or start steady growth from its current point.

Product adoption is an "S" curve like the yellow line here http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Diffusion_of_innovations (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Diffusion_of_innovations)

But we are still at level below 0.1%. (where is 2.5%) :-)

Someone please consult the entrails so we can get closure on this.

$40 ? hahaha :-) better odds are for $1000

because?

Just my feelings. I can bet with you. (You can hedge on that bet.)  100 BTC at $1000 before $40

Any bet would have to be in real money.

Is $10,000 USD enough real for you ?

Pretty real. I won't take any bet denominated in BTC, and I don't really trust you.

I'll bet you 1000BTC that BTC doesn't go to $0.10 next year, payable in BTC.

http://falkvinge.net/2013/09/13/bitcoins-vast-overvaluation-seems-to-be-caused-by-usually-illegal-price-fixing/

He is wrong about the current value of a bitcoin. He is comparing bitcoin store of value value to USD store of value value, without considering the differences between the two. The USD is a mature, inflationary currency, while bitcoins are a growing, deflationary currency. Why would anybody hold USD? They are not a good store of value, so people spend them as soon as they get them. Bitcoins on the other had are reasonably expected to go up in value, so using them as a store of value is what many people are doing.

He then goes on to talk about the "shark squad" AKA the Manipulator who is painting the tape and manipulating the price of bitocoins. his in depth analysis seems to have turned up two competing trading bots, not some sort of conspiracy. He also has no way of verifying that the several different actions are all being done by the same people. It might just have been somebody looking to get into bitcoins making the big buys which push the price up, and then the two trading bots fighting with each other after each movement.

That would still be to my disadvantage since it's pretty certain prices would flashcrash if it reaches 40. I was offering a similar bet with lower stakes to Kupsi a few months ago and we couldn't agree to terms.
And I don't really think Odlav would risk 250 Bitcoins, I think he offered the bet because of the leverage he would get if the bet would be denominated in BTC. ;)

Assuming you figure out the trust issue you can simply agree to adjust the BTC deposit to escrow to make sure it stays at a constant fiat value and if one party doesn't perform that causes an automatic win.

This looks really familiar, like the same things we are reading right now.

Don't forget the November bubble started about exactly 30 days after this on about October 16.

There is no similarity of 2014 to 2013. at all

So Odalv, you were totally right last year.  What are your thoughts for this year as we are perhaps on the brink of a new bubble?  $4000, $5000 more likely than $300? 

Yes, now you are here  ;D

Lol, from reading it, sure there was a lot of similarities in what people thought.

I find it very amusing to see such wrong prediction's...over and over again from the same FUDster's. Why do you waste valuable energy in something you do not believe in?

Great necro thread revival. Thank's.

I have no clue. :-) We need to have reliable exchange ... (safe place to store billions in fiat and bitcoins ... not anonymous or Ltd.)   We will see if Barry Silbert or something else will be successfull.

I agree. This a big similarity with 2013.

more like we are "repeating" 2014, i think price will shoot to 800 or around there, in the upcoming months, maybe at the end of the summer

Not even the same TERAbear?

I have looked at that too, and feel we're probably repeating 2012, which means bitcoin will probably stay flat for several more months before it rises again

Stay flat for several more months, and then a bad news hit, ......

Generally helps if you make the scale actually to scale. It jumps much too fast, which obviously makes the growth in 2011 appear much faster.