Bitcoin Forum

BTC broke above the 9017 resistance point which was a low produced on January 17th, 2018 from the GDAX exchange.  

The next resistance level is 9499 which was a high point on Feb 3rd before the last drop.

Why is this important?  Because BTC will be producing higher highs and higher lows which is the definition of an uptrend. This suggests that the previous low MAY have been the bottom price for 2018.

I say _may_ because BTC is still in the downwards trend channel. Once it breaks out an over the upper trend line, I speculate that it's off for a bullish (and volatile) run for 2018.

I am glad that you have presented a good speculation there but on what grounds do you base your facts on? Is it only because of price movements in the past few months? If that is the case then your speculation have low chance of it happening since bitcoin price cannot predicted merely by looking at charts and past price movements alone. It needs to also be backed by good and bad news(upcoming ones) and other factors for a more accurate guessing.

He's using TA, which has been pretty reliable recently. But as you say, there could be unexpected news that disrupts teh charts - anything from a major exchange collapse to a world war could affect the price of bitcoin!

After a long time stability gain now the price has moved forward breaking the $9000 mark. Possibly as the Chinese new year celebrations were getting closer the price will continue to travel towards the growth further. Hope this will take the price cross $10000 at the earliest with more circulation happening.

As of now the Price of bitcoin is $9,218.82 USD and as you say that the next resistance level would be at $9499 and I really think we can break through from that resistance And if your speculation was base on the TA chart it can be pretty accurate but unless there were negative news that happens again or a continues people spreading a lot of FUD in the community.

It's nice to see bitcoin creating a breakout. Bitcoin last week was down to 6k usd. But now it is bouncing from 5.8k range. Bitcoin will now go to the moon once 10k's been breached. Good things will come and go to bitcoin.

Exactly, it will be just a matter of days to break the $9499 is that's what the chart is pointing. Why? Breaking $9K was not to be expected at this early, speculators says that it will happen after the celebration of Chines New Year. Is this another bull trap again or this for real?

In my view, this is the start of the rally that we all have been waiting for. Right before the end of the Chinese New Year, it will break and test $10K and never look back. That's how I see it.

Of course, FUD will always be present in this market, its how we respond and react to them that will make the difference.

This was answered already by the person that replied, but yes I am specifically using technical analysis as a basis to form my opinion/speculation.  My facts are the price levels on the charts over the last few weeks, specifically since the February 6th low. (Which I also speculate was the low for 2018. Why? Because of the volume around the spike low, it was the highest since the December peak)

With hedge funds and large banks involved with BTC, there are a lot of traders looking at the charts and speculating accordingly. They have large amounts of capital to accumulate positions and they typically look for trends on the charts. I know that a lot of people have not learned technical analysis and most do not need to, especially if one purchases an hodL's.  But it is useful to find lows for purchasing, even if you are not a trader.

I know that reading price support / resistance levels are hard to visualize on a forum, so here is a 4hr chart that I am looking at.

http://i17.photobucket.com/albums/b55/Glenn408/4hr_1.jpg~original (http://s17.photobucket.com/user/Glenn408/media/4hr_1.jpg.html)

I think it can't break $10K and we will see another dip, down trend will probably continue till maybe summer. I hope it will break resistance levels and go new higs.  :)

The resistance around 9k had already been tested on 2/3 occasions before being broken, I actually perceive that to be a stronger sign than if it were to be broken at the first attempt. It shows that the market is managing to regain strength despite facing adversity and that gives me hope that we can keep breaking through resistance levels for a while yet. I think if/once we break 10k there won't be much resistance back towards the 12-13k price level.

Hell yeah it's finally happening after more than 2 months bitcoin is rising again I'm so happy right now i just have a feeling that price might fall again one more time , i saw on coindesk or somewhere that people are purchasing more bitcoin than normal there is a chance they sell it and it causes a downfall again I'm not completely sure about thia news

It's too much of an exaggeration to consider a down trend to be a realistic forecast. It might not be able to break through $10k initially, maybe not even with a second attempt, but eventually it will if the short term demand is there. Currently we have gone through $9.5k which might indicate that the market is ready for a further bump, but we'll see what happens. I don't mind the market to remain below $10k for a longer while, and I don't mind the price to jump over $10k for good. I am prepared for whatever the market comes up with, so I am good.

would you mind explaining why you think this is possible?

because the way dips work is usually in a way that price rises, tests the resistance if it doesn't break it then there is a fall. if it breaks the resistance that alone is like a global signal for buying, that is why they call it "breakout"! price rises fast after that at least for a while. and $10k is that resistance.

not to mention that as OP said bitcoin is starting to have higher highs and higher lows which is indication of a uptrend.

The chart that I posted previously has some type of error and is not showing (It was before). I did a quick search and I found that the photo is size limited, so I reduced the size but still have problems re-uploading it.  I'd like to post up another updated chart b/c the price hit $9745 on GDAX which surpassed the $9499 level.

If the bullish trend continues, I'd suspect a pause at the 'round' number of 10k. The upper (descending) trend line is around 11.1k or so and this would definitely be a resistance point.

As mentioned, hedge funds and pro traders are also watching this market and they like trends, either up or down. There is room to run in the current trend, so I'll speculate that more trading $$$ will be pouring in, at least for the time being.

In General, I open you a secret) Bitcoin by the end of the week breaks 10 and is fixed there. all this will talk about the reversal of the trend and many who are hidden will enter , thus the price will go even higher! so who else thinks that we will go down to 7, that is mistaken, it was necessary to enter then-when such chance was given to you!

Bitcoin has already broken both of these resistances.

I think that we're off to a good start. The rumors that people were generating about the Chinese New Year seems to be true at the moment. Obviously right now, if we can hit $10k, then the uptrend will pretty much be confirmed.

Even if BTC goes down, I doubt that it'll break the $6k low. That January low should stay there as the year's low for at least a few more months as bitcoin continues to recover. This is why you never sell into FUD, guys.

If this momentum with BTC price rising, it is possible that we may see another $15k breach by end of February. Good news are spreading everywhere now and new players are entering the market. The chart is already showing bullish divergence and the whales are already creating waves in the market.

Agreed on breaking resistance, although I would probably still be conservative on chances of maintaining that resistance. I recall buying volumes over the past 2 weeks suggesting for a sustained uptrend only for lines to retreat again.

But if I take the general sentiment to be self fulfilling, then there's absolutely a swing in opinion across most speculators I'm following and that would carry prices through 10k within this month, if not by the weekend.

@op, volatility? That's the constant!

upload them to imgur.com i find it much easier to use and it always shows up easier than other photo sharing sites.


i also think $10k may be "weird" with some ups and downs like always. as if bitcoin is playing jump rope with the price.
but above that i don't think it will go around $11k,... it may go up so much faster because of how FOMO always works with bitcoin.

Its funny how the market reacts to good news, people get more confident and dont want to miss the rolling snowball,
 
While looking at the last week on cpoinmarketcap the price has risen for over a week now and has come a long way from a low of nearly $6000 last week to €9904

we could be looking at the snowball making its run downhill  ;)

It seems like the market only needed a little push to go past the previous resistance level, and I'm pretty sure that push was the beginning of the Chinese New Year (it is not a coincidence that the recent spike in the price matches the date of the CNY).
I'd dare to say that we might be on the verge of a new bull run, though it might be too early to say.

I'm with you, perhaps we're being bullish, but I think a $5k increase in the next couple weeks doesn't sound that crazy if the uptrend continues, especially if FOMO kicks in.

It is reasonable considering the previous ATH of Bitcoin.  Increasing 5k on the next couple of weeks can be expected.  I believe whales had completed its accumulation stage and now wants to cash out profit so they will probably do the best they can to hype Bitcoin so that FOMO will kick in.  The best time to do it because of the upcoming lightning network update.  FUD gone, hype is increasing, FOMO kicking in together with the scalability issue solved. What else to expect? 

Here is an update from this evening, 19:00 PST.

I have a Heikin Ashi overlay on the candlesticks which makes the trend on the chart easier to see, Green - bullish, Red - bearish. There is a little algorithm in the Heikin Ashi overlay, so each bar does not always represent one day.

You can see that BTC easily took out the 9017 and 9499 levels. (Price is from the GDAX exchange) It is creating higher highs and even though it is in a bullish trend, it is still not out of the downwards channel.
https://i.imgur.com/bThRWmd.jpg

Here is a 4 hour chart with the 10K level loaded in. I put it in because it is a significant 'round' number which would typically be a resistance point.

There is some pretty good volume in this bullish leg, something that was missing from the previous bullish trends since the peak in December 17. (Some big $$$ is making it's way into BTC)

If BTC should continue the bullish trend, the upper trend line is near 11K which would definitely be a resistance area. IF it does bounce off of the trend line, 10K should be support. It's all speculation, so we shall see.
https://i.imgur.com/IQ2WjBe.jpg

The low price for BTC in 2015, 16 and 17 was in January. In 2018 it _MIGHT_ have be in February, the 6th to be exact.

Thanks for the tip, I used Imgur to host the images. (I did see the chart that I initially uploaded, it appears and disappears)

$9,499 has been broken without mush resistance and the bears do not put up much figh at that level. A's at the time of making this post bitcoin's  price is $10,107! I see the next fight around  $10,250 if here is broken then I will believe that the bullish trends has commence.

Yep. We're currently down a few hundred dollars from today's high, though. I think that markets are still preparing for a full on bull ride, and right now it's just not ready for that kind of action yet.

Support at $10k hasn't been fully established yet, for bitcoin to continue its way up.

Give it some time, though. We're in the classic adjustment phase and when that passes, we'll see some bullishness once again. Short term speaking, I can see alts going down a bit from the high. Right now bitcoin dominance is still below 40%, it'll correct itself soon.

yes do not worry bitcoin will go back up starting from the end of this year bitcoin will be at the pump hard to print the highest price at the end of this year. Naturally bitcoin is very expensive because many new players who want to have bitcoin and make the supply thinner and harder to get.

Here is a 4hr chart from the GDAX exchange and a brief review (speculation) and update.

BTC is still on a bullish run with the green Heikin Ashi bars in green. If it continues, the upper trend line may provide resistance and then a potential pullback near the 10K support level.

Then off for another attempt to break the upper trend line, after that is a question mark. (Break through or reverse back to the downside?)  There has also been some significant volume associated with the current uptrend. (Not shown on the chart)

When it does break the upper trend line, I think it will be 'off to the races' for 2018. (BTC is still technically in a downtrend as it is still within the bearish channel). There will be the typical pullbacks for sure, but the overall trend will be up.

https://i.imgur.com/q8qQ9jX.jpg

Here is the story behind recent bitcoin bull run. Apparently, we have someone very rich who bought $344 million worth at an average of $8400 from 9 to 12 February.
Meanwhile, noted cryptocurrency analyst Tom Lee, who has a $25,000 price target for bitcoin by the end of this year, has predicted a bump in its prices starting in July
And this mysterious buyer doubled down on bitcoin by purchasing even more BTC. 41,000 coins this time, just before its price hit $10,000.

More info here: https://www.investopedia.com/news/bitcoin-price-retreats-10k-mysterious-buyer-emerges/ (https://www.investopedia.com/news/bitcoin-price-retreats-10k-mysterious-buyer-emerges/)

Thanks for the info...  I did see a headline regarding a whale that recently executed a fairly large purchase. Looking at the chart since the peak in Dec 17, there is high volume around the last dip low, suggesting that it was the bottom for the downtrend.

There are also some large green bars over the last few days which shows some of 'whales' purchases. The blue line on the volume is a 20 day moving average and it is at the highest point since the peak. It appears that Feb 6th may have been the low for 2018. (As mentioned before)

https://i.imgur.com/knkcKuI.jpg

once again I remind the bitcoint price is not fixed, rising or falling prices can not be predicted, we can only see and monitor, if indeed the increase is true yes that's good news for bitcoint users, only the data source is less clear, it could be just a dream only

Nice analysis...

I do think thta you're right in saying that $11k will be a major resistance and would signal a trend reversal. We haven't seen a lot of activity in both ways today, but rather the price is down -.01% at the moment which is pretty much stable from the last 24 h.

Floor should be $10k, otherwise BTC would have crashed through that yesterday/today.

We're going to be in this little area for a while I suppose. Until the trend goes either way.

Bitcoin has even reached 11,000$ plus but it went down again today pulling some cryptos down too. But of course, it's normal that bitcoin's price will go down whenever it rises because others are selling their bitcoin while bitcoin's price is high.

I just hope that bitcoin will breakout to 15,000$ before the end of 1st quarter of this year.

That's some fine analysis - looks like Bitcoin tried and failed to break out of the downward channel last night. I expect it will make another attempt today.

Thanks for the feedback and your opinions as well guys. Here is another bit of information that suggests that the low point for 2018 MAY have been on Feb 6th.

This is a daily chart from the Bitstamp exchange. (Technicals are a little bit different depending upon which exchange your looking at)

There is a fibonacci retracement set from the low from July 2017 to the Peak in December 17. BTC declined and spiked low to the 23.6 'fib' level as seen with the blue line which was a -76.4% decrease in price between those price levels.
The low at 23.6% was also very close to the Nov 17 low (double bottom)
It is also at the 50% retracement level which a resistance point. (A psychological and technical one)
https://i.imgur.com/qzxcVTI.jpg

There have been some deep crashes/pullbacks and 70% to 80% may be normal for BTC and the crypto market. Here is the crash in 2013 for example, a -81% drop in price.
https://i.imgur.com/BlkWbfK.jpg

The last pullback of 76% is probably about average as far as the major percentage declines which also suggests that the bottom for 2018 was set. (We shall see)

Lastly, you may be able to tell that I am not new to technical analysis... I've been watching the charts of Gold/Silver since ~2006 or so...

Yes, because of the volume at the last low, the high volume buys after the low, the fib retracement to 23.6 and that the percentage drop from the peak was between 70% and 80% which most of the major BTC declines have been.

Also as mentioned, the lows for 2014, 15 & 16 were all in the month of December, in 2018 it may have been in February. The trend is that the low price for BTC is in the first few months of the year.

Lol, and there are still people saying that bitcoin is over, bla bla bla and that it is a ponzi scheme by the same size than Bitconnect..

 came on people, open your eyes.. this was just a pump and dump and it is common in here.

Here is an update on for this thread. The daily chart from the GDAX exchange with a Heikin Ashi overlay on the candlesticks.
You can see that the uptrend off of the last bottom found resistance at the upper descending trend line
After a 5 day decline, BTC found support at the 9499 level
It has pierced the upper trend line and if it continues to gain momentum, I'll speculate that the bottom was set on Feb 6th, 2018.
It just needs to break above 11,695 level to produce higher highs and higher lows, the definition of an uptrend.

https://i.imgur.com/cG7rPXW.jpg

That $11700 barrier was really a tough nut to break it. We have been tested that price already like twice in the last two weeks, but we can't really get over it resulting to the price going downtrend last week. But its good to see that you chart was a good guide to see where the price would go. Currently we are just a shade above $11,000 so its another wait and see scenario. Bulls vs Bears will fight it out and let's see it we could at least get near the $11,700 levels and see it we can break it this time, otherwise it will be just a repeat of the previous week's, back to square one, moving up slowly and testing new psychological barriers. It will be exciting though to see break $11,700 and see it if can be sustainable. If it did hold and sustained at the levels then $15K will be next.

This your prediction has come to pass and we have taking advantage of it to make some money. Bitcoin has make significant progress since the beginning of this week till now and this morning I can see that it above $11,000. I think bitcoin is going to have another great progress that will push bitcoin above $20,000  that might trigger another bullish trend that will make December high a child play.

As of now the price is decreasing and i think after this scenario it will continue to push and it will surge more than our thoughts and in my prediction 25k is enough to reach before the end of March.  'cause it's always happened which is after the fluctuation it will continue to climb then after the all time high value it will fall.  So i have doubts it will soar again Lets wait for it.

It appears that there is definitely a fight between the bulls/bears at this price level. In general when there is a technical breakout, the bulls usually jump on the train and push it higher.  Still waiting for that to happen... 11.7k will be a test for sure.

I'm glad the analysis helped you. It's going to be a little bit of a struggle for the bulls at this level which has been apparent based on the chart. Once it breaks 11.7K for a few days, it should continue a volatile bullish run in 2018.

This 'fight' is a pretty normal event considering that there isn't anything hinting at a further increase yet. If we look at the last weeks, it's a positive development that the demand keeps pushing the price back to +$10k levels, which is a great sign. The only thing lacking is the actual incentive to support $10k in order to have it form a base support level. I like the silence in mainstream media land when it comes to them spreading fud. I have even noticed a slight positive tone when it comes to crypto, which once again shows how they surf on Bitcoin's movements to push articles and reports online. My impression -- Bitcoin moving down was due to government cracking down on Bitcoin, and Bitcoin moving up is governments being more open to fairly regularly this market. :D

Technical analysis works for me too, this is my saviour and traders or even hodlers should know this thing. It seems like the volume of bitcoin every time it hit $11k are getting weaker but I believe it can break that level in the coming days, so be patient and bitcoin will fly high again.

BTC is going to break 11.7K this month IMO and produce higher highs based on the technicals of the chart. Some fundamentals apply like mass adoption, but I think the technicals rule this market.

Regarding mass adoption, there is Metcalfe's law which states 'the value of a telecommunications network is proportional to the square of the number of connected users of the system (n2)'.  With worldwide adoption of BTC, the user base continues to grow, so the value should continue to go up...  HodL'ing long term is a good idea as BTC has not seen complete mass adoption yet...