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Title: . Post by: chodpaba on September 16, 2013, 01:38:00 PM .
Title: Re: One week call Post by: adamstgBit on September 16, 2013, 01:44:57 PM High Low Close for next week
163.5 - 144.9 - 151.1 Title: Re: One week call Post by: kehtolo on September 16, 2013, 02:06:26 PM I think we'll be still hanging around $137 / €103.50
Title: Re: One week call Post by: oda.krell on September 16, 2013, 03:12:54 PM Volume weighted average for one day, one week from today. (Gox, GMT) I'll start. Monday, September 23, 2013 $127.21 Fun! I'll have to give a bit of a range though... Monday, September 23, 2013: 134$ to 146$ Title: Re: One week call Post by: rampantparanoia on September 16, 2013, 03:36:02 PM price is right rules? e.g. closest to price without going over?
then I bid $1 ;D Title: Re: One week call Post by: zachcope on September 16, 2013, 03:43:09 PM $157.70 gox dollars
Title: Re: One week call Post by: Adrian-x on September 16, 2013, 04:14:57 PM $144.63 +- 10%
Title: Re: One week call Post by: BitChick on September 16, 2013, 04:38:30 PM $165.5 on Mt. Gox.
Title: Re: One week call Post by: JimboToronto on September 16, 2013, 05:06:47 PM 148-152
Title: Re: One week call Post by: Ivanhoe on September 16, 2013, 05:25:55 PM 137 on Gox
Title: Re: One week call Post by: Singlebyte on September 16, 2013, 05:26:25 PM Mtgox $156
(To be fair, make sure you lock the thread after a day or two so we don't have any late submissions 1 hour before deadline. :)) Title: Re: One week call Post by: gog1 on September 16, 2013, 05:38:54 PM Volume weighted average for one day, one week from today. (Gox, GMT) I'll start. Monday, September 23, 2013 $127.21 This is quite bearish. Title: Re: One week call Post by: cbhelp on September 16, 2013, 05:40:56 PM 135.75
Title: Re: One week call Post by: MAbtc on September 16, 2013, 05:43:07 PM Monday, September 23, 2013: $124
Title: Re: One week call Post by: bitcoin carpenter on September 16, 2013, 07:32:48 PM Iol I love that a 40% gain over 60 days is Considered bearish in bitcoins
Title: Re: One week call Post by: HeliKopterBen on September 16, 2013, 07:54:16 PM I will make my prediction sunday night.
Title: Re: One week call Post by: Flappy on September 16, 2013, 10:13:27 PM Sept 23 target between $141.0 and $145.7
In the next 7 days I expect we will maintain the upward trend since $65. Title: Re: One week call Post by: SheHadMANHands on September 16, 2013, 11:34:05 PM $141
8) Title: Re: One week call Post by: Zangelbert Bingledack on September 17, 2013, 01:37:36 PM $166
I think it's been camping out at sub-$150 for just long enough. If it breaks through it will go a fair ways above $150, so a random guess around there is $166. Title: Re: One week call Post by: Flappy on September 17, 2013, 10:21:40 PM Title: Re: One week call Post by: FNG on September 18, 2013, 03:53:21 AM $155.55
Title: Re: One week call Post by: derpinheimer on September 18, 2013, 04:40:39 AM Are we stating our expected "HIGH/LOW" [depending on if we are saying its going up or down] Because otherwise in a 24hr period the price can vary quite a bit :P ($3.37 today.. actually pretty low) Im gonna just throw out a random guess and say $149.80 as the high by end of Sept. 24. Title: Re: One week call Post by: ||bit on September 18, 2013, 05:14:03 AM Volume weighted average for one day, one week from today. (Gox, GMT) I'll start. Monday, September 23, 2013 $127.21 $160 Title: Re: One week call Post by: oda.krell on September 18, 2013, 10:54:29 AM Monday, September 23, 2013 $127.21 Tuesday, September 24, 2013 $129.43 I think I liked your other indicator better. But I'll say that much: if the (short term) reversal that would be needed to reach your numbers takes place over the weekend, I'll give your new method all the praise it deserves. I don't see any signs for that happening, but then again, I usually only pick up trends once they started forming, while you seem to attempt to look ahead a bit more. Title: Re: One week call Post by: tarmi on September 18, 2013, 11:02:19 AM Monday, September 23, 2013 $127.21 Tuesday, September 24, 2013 $129.43 I think I liked your other indicator better. But I'll say that much: if the (short term) reversal that would be needed to reach your numbers takes place over the weekend, I'll give your new method all the praise it deserves. I don't see any signs for that happening, but then again, I usually only pick up trends once they started forming, while you seem to attempt to look ahead a bit more. what reversal are you speaking about? current mtgox price: 140 $. so, instead of a drop to 127 $, we will have it to 129. nothing's changed actually. Title: Re: One week call Post by: Nemo1024 on September 18, 2013, 12:54:37 PM I think he's referring to this thread: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=269944.msg3175032#msg3175032
My call: $110 one week from today (on Bitstamp) Title: Re: One week call Post by: oda.krell on September 18, 2013, 02:12:59 PM Monday, September 23, 2013 $127.21 Tuesday, September 24, 2013 $129.43 I think I liked your other indicator better. But I'll say that much: if the (short term) reversal that would be needed to reach your numbers takes place over the weekend, I'll give your new method all the praise it deserves. I don't see any signs for that happening, but then again, I usually only pick up trends once they started forming, while you seem to attempt to look ahead a bit more. what reversal are you speaking about? current mtgox price: 140 $. so, instead of a drop to 127 $, we will have it to 129. nothing's changed actually. I'll paraphrase: we're at 140 now. Going back to either 127 or 129 within the next few days would be a (at least minor) reversal - or if you prefer, call it retraction. And I don't see any signs pointing towards such a reversal. If at all, I see the uptrend becoming stronger again (main point: price and order book development on bitstamp) Title: Re: One week call Post by: Miz4r on September 18, 2013, 08:39:20 PM I have no strong opinion on the direction for the next week but this is my guess:
$161.2 on Wednesday September 25, 2013 (MtGox) Title: Re: One week call Post by: 600watt on September 18, 2013, 09:14:36 PM 153 gox wednesday, sept. 25th
Title: Re: One week call Post by: Tzupy on September 19, 2013, 09:51:22 AM If the drop in money flow continues for some time, we may have a crash like the 5th September.
The next 2 hours are going to clarify how much we drop today. http://bitcoincharts.com/charts/chart.png?width=940&m=mtgoxUSD&SubmitButton=Draw&r=10&i=Hourly&c=1&s=2013-09-01&e=2013-09-20&Prev=&Next=&t=S&b=B&a1=&m1=10&a2=&m2=25&x=0&i1=AccDist&i2=MACD&i3=MFI&i4=StochRSI&v=1&cv=0&ps=1&l=0&p=0& Title: Re: One week call Post by: bitcoin44me on September 19, 2013, 12:15:49 PM 151 $
Title: Re: One week call Post by: Tzupy on September 19, 2013, 04:31:11 PM At last, some movement! The bid sum / ask sum ratio points to 132$, but if volume does not ramp up the price may not drop so much.
If however volume rises, then it's possible to overshoot, like the 5th September, and drop towards 120$. PS. WOW! It's going down! The whales flinched! WHEEE! PS2. The bid sum / ask sum ratio now points to 124$, because the drop worsened it. PS3. Oh crap! Blockchained is down, I'm half blind... Title: Re: One week call Post by: Miz4r on September 21, 2013, 01:14:42 PM I think a prediction with a $5 dollar range is more useful, as nobody in the world can predict the value up to a single dollarcent at a certain point in time. It would just be a coincidence. Here's my predicted range in a week from now:
Saturday, September 28th, 2013 --> $137 - $142 Title: Re: One week call Post by: Adrian-x on September 21, 2013, 03:14:14 PM I think a prediction with a $5 dollar range is more useful, as nobody in the world can predict the value up to a single dollarcent at a certain point in time. It would just be a coincidence. Here's my predicted range in a week from now: Saturday, September 28th, 2013 --> $137 - $142 This isn't a sports book. Anyways, it would be silly to trade on these calls, or to trade on such a short time frame. That is not how I use these numbers. These are my canary. They represent a median statistical outcome based on a sampling what has happened in the not too distant past, What matters is the amount of error, and if the error is consistently high or low. It gives me an indication of the amount of forcing the market system is undergoing, and in what direction. But feel free to make your calls however you wish. Does: forcing = manipulation? Title: Re: One week call Post by: derpinheimer on September 23, 2013, 04:45:20 AM So your system actually says the market was considerably more bearish in this last 24 hours, huh? [Low reduced by $2.50]
Its weird, because to me its looking bullish. But, this is emotion :P Also, there has been little buying or selling. Although I think selling volume is slightly higher than buying. Title: Re: One week call Post by: oda.krell on September 24, 2013, 02:02:24 PM Monday, 2013-09-23, 1d VWAP @mtgox: 133.55 USD
Title: Re: One week call Post by: oda.krell on September 24, 2013, 08:17:18 PM Volume weighted average for one day, one week from today. (Gox, GMT) I'll start. Monday, September 23, 2013 $127.21 Fun! I'll have to give a bit of a range though... Monday, September 23, 2013: 134$ to 146$ Not too shabby for a week out. Thanks, but not that impressive since I gave a big range. Also, the "reversal", or at least the further drop, that your method predicted more or less happened, good job. Does that mean you will stop posting the results of it soon, hehehe Title: Re: One week call Post by: Tzupy on September 27, 2013, 07:47:39 AM Code: Gox Daily, GMT High Low VWA That didn't go well, 10$ difference in the peak. Did you find there a lesson to learn? For me, the lesson is "don't underestimate the panic buyers". ;D Or, more seriously, even if we are in bear market since the 5th September, bullish sentiment is still strong. Title: Re: One week call Post by: kehtolo on September 27, 2013, 08:38:55 AM Friday 4th Oct. $143 / €106.50
Title: Re: One week call Post by: Marbit on September 27, 2013, 08:44:01 AM 1 week = 127 :D
Title: Re: One week call Post by: Le Happy Merchant on September 27, 2013, 08:44:38 AM Oct 4.
$149 - $152. Title: Re: One week call Post by: smoothie on September 27, 2013, 08:44:51 AM Just my two cents...think longer term...not that thinking about short term prices is bad...its just distracting. :)
Title: Re: One week call Post by: Tzupy on September 27, 2013, 03:11:29 PM I disagree. Here is my prediction for the 3rd October: the start of a large drop in price, down to about 115$.
But this could start 1 or 2 days sooner, if a BTC whale understands where he is and dumps. And I expect it to be turbulent, so the 115$ is just a median, could be anywhere between 110$ and 120$. Title: Re: One week call Post by: prophetx on September 27, 2013, 08:47:09 PM Code: Daily, GMT VWA, Gox trend has been almost exactly opposite... at least get the damn direction right ::) Title: Re: One week call Post by: SheHadMANHands on September 27, 2013, 08:51:39 PM Code: Daily, GMT VWA, Gox trend has been almost exactly opposite... at least get the damn direction right ::) lol From now on, I will be doing the opposite... http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cKUvKE3bQlY Title: Re: One week call Post by: prophetx on September 27, 2013, 09:14:13 PM Code: Daily, GMT VWA, Gox trend has been almost exactly opposite... at least get the damn direction right ::) lol From now on, I will be doing the opposite... http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cKUvKE3bQlY I see everyone wants to play the smaller game. Perhaps this was to be expected with the new money—impatience don't mind us we're just trolling you for getting it wrong http://elbitcoin.org/wp-content/uploads/2012/10/troll-filtrar-bitcoin-reddit-300x275.jpg Title: Re: One week call Post by: Tzupy on September 27, 2013, 09:18:27 PM I may have an explanation for the failure of Chodpaba's prediction of the 22nd September.
The price drop that started on the 19th should have gone lower than 131$, but it didn't because the second stage of the drop was met with an increase in money flow. Ironically, the rebound that should have happened on the 22nd was met with a drop in money flow, so they both were flattened. This made EW sub-sub-wave recognition impossible for me in those days, and I suspect Chodpaba's results were distorted (to some extent) for the same reason. I'd like to add that from the 22th we are kind of repeating the evolution from the 7th, only with flattened price oscillation amplitudes and starting from a higher price point. And that in comparison with the bear market of June, the sub-waves now take about 3 times longer, so more patience is needed. Title: Re: One week call Post by: Argwai96 on September 29, 2013, 07:45:36 AM I think in one week Gox will be in the mid-high 120s, give or take a couple points. :)
Title: Re: One week call Post by: dwdoc on September 29, 2013, 05:11:59 PM Following.
Title: Re: One week call Post by: Tzupy on October 02, 2013, 07:10:14 PM I disagree. Here is my prediction for the 3rd October: the start of a large drop in price, down to about 115$. But this could start 1 or 2 days sooner, if a BTC whale understands where he is and dumps. And I expect it to be turbulent, so the 115$ is just a median, could be anywhere between 110$ and 120$. Turns out I was kind of right by accident (the SR news). Due to somewhat low volume, the drop should have started on the 5th, 2 days later than I predicted, and although I expected it to be turbulent, I didn't imagine it would be that turbulent. :o Title: Re: One week call Post by: HeliKopterBen on October 02, 2013, 07:16:33 PM I disagree. Here is my prediction for the 3rd October: the start of a large drop in price, down to about 115$. But this could start 1 or 2 days sooner, if a BTC whale understands where he is and dumps. And I expect it to be turbulent, so the 115$ is just a median, could be anywhere between 110$ and 120$. Turns out I was kind of right by accident (the SR news). Due to somewhat low volume, the drop should have started on the 5th, 2 days later than I predicted, and although I expected it to be turbulent, I didn't imagine it would be that turbulent. :o Good call man! SR probably has little to do with it. Title: Re: One week call Post by: Marbit on October 02, 2013, 09:39:09 PM 1 week = 127 :D little bit early but it sounds about right. :D |
