Bitcoin Forum

In order to do an in-depth analysis of future coin supply, I want to know your cash out strategy

I only day trade... cashing out any percent only reduces potential gains.

I wont cash out unless bitcoin

A: Has impending doom
B: Has reached >$1,000.

My long term strategy has no intentions of liquidating in the foreseeable future of any percentage. Coins are only liquidated if all else fails (lack of fiat/can't sell some other good in emergency), and my strategy when trading is simply to acquire more coin, regardless of USD index. Long.

There are no traders here

I never sell my bitcoins if I don't really need money at short time. When I get more money I collect more bitcoins. If bitcoin hit 1000$ then I start to think selling. We're not even middle of the game, there are a lot more way to go.

I will liquidate a few coins when BTC >500$

Above proves my point

Sold some at $192, will buy some if/when price drops low enough. I'm midterm bearish.

If, however, price shoots to the heavens (above $1200 or so), I'll cash out the rest of my coins. I'm growing bored of BTC.

How come?

Got some coins I won't sell until/if we are several magnitudes above where we are. Otherwise, I'll trade 25%-100% of my funds over any given couple months and don't mind being 100% fiat when appropriate.  :)

I also need to do a poll on custom hardware forum, there we have most of the miners

Option #10: None of the Above.

No real actual use cases emerging, sluggish technological progress, I've already cashed out plenty and not willing to risk my money on a pie in the sky project.

Still holding some BTC though, and looking to buy back some more if the price drops to a reasonable level. I think this is financially rational, but it's no longer fun.

 BTC is a serious financial matter of global consequences. I didn't invest in BTC for fun. I dont expect it to be funny (i'm not a 16 y old mining freak).

Every week I sell everything that is not in cold storage. And then buy back, sell, buy... it is "disposable play money". If the value of BTC becomes so high that play money becomes serious money, I will move some to cold storage until it is play money again.

I think that short term trading won't really affect the coin exchange rate. $1 million buy this week will raise the exchange rate by 5% and $1 million sell next week will drop the exchange rate by the same amount. Only net buy from each investor will drive the exchange rate up continuously

The result from the miners are here: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=296264.0

Basically it's the same result: More than half of the people would like to save the coin and spend only a little fraction of them in future

This means, every year most added coin supply will be saved and disappear from circulation. They will be slowly cashed out during a long period, thus the market demand will always grow faster than supply

This chart suppose that each investor buy coin only once and then cash out part of his coins every year
http://photo.mystisland.org/coin_supply0.jpg

It's clear that if they never sell more than 10% of their coins per year, the daily coin supply on market will be constantly shrinking. If the number of new investors are almost the same each year (population growth, same amount of new people join work each year), and the daily coin supply are constantly shrinking, the result is a steady rise in exchange rate

1 million sell will cause a cascade of sells.

This poll revealed, more than half of the coins are in the hands of long term investors, a panic sell will only psychologically affect a small part of short term traders, since these traders only hold small amount of coins, they won't affect the long term coin supply trend

This is also observed clearly in this chart
http://blockchained.com/depth_mtgox.png

Although the price crashed hard from 200+ to 70 this spring, and it caused panic sell, the ask sum is still much lower than last year when there was no panic sell

Have to take in account that a lot of people have moved away from the source of this data (gox).

Well duh, the supply will go down as price goes up. Do you not see how the price increases as supply drops, then every time a bubble pops it shot up alongside it? This is.. expected. Bitcoin price doesnt increase from public interest AKA fiat except in a short period during the runup and after the bubbke pops; it increases from reduced supply.

hold (for the longest time)  :)

And where do we go from here?

http://www.anonmgur.com/up/418a70fc5255fec1bca71cb003360f65.jpg (http://www.anonmgur.com/up/418a70fc5255fec1bca71cb003360f65.jpg)

The recent drop to 50K ask might because of some volume moved to bitstamp, but this spring when there was a crash, bitstamp was not there

All BTC that I currently own come from online activity. I have not invested any of my fiat in BTC and keep those two separate. I fund future investments and will cash out BTC all at once if I ever wish to get out of the BTC economy. Otherwise, I hope to eventually use BTC to cover everyday expenses once the merchant economy is further developed.