Bitcoin Forum

Hi everyone, as it was Chinese NY on tbe last Friday I was wandering what peoples thoughts were on its possible effect if any on the market place. This holiday obviously effects a number of countries in Sth East Asia not just China; I would think that this period could potentially see a huge number of individuals cashing in for the festivities.

What are peoples thoughts on what to expect !?! could be a lowering or market cap & another / even better buy position for your Onions..

There's a trend that Bitcoin crashes a few weeks before Chinese New Year, which may be one of the reasons why January is traditionally considered a bearish month. It still seems to hold true this year, despite the extremely low Chinese Bitcoin trading volume, which is weird.

No one really knows what to expect, but if we follow the trend of the past years, February typically performs much better than January, with the rebound starting to occur around the time Chinese New Year drops.

Correlation =/= causation though, so this might have nothing to do with Chinese New Year at all. Trends only go on until they stop, too.

Lunar New Year this time not so big impact on the decrease of bitcoin, bitcoin only down about 9% only.
Now the Lunar New Year has passed and bitcoin has increased by about 9% just as before (running in the same place).

The Chinese New Year has an impact on the economy that leads to a decrease in bitcoin, but not too low. That's because the people who celebrate Imlek prefer culinary shopping and spend a lot of money for the needs of Chinese New Year. But after the, bitcoin back up as before.

I guess the impact this year is not that great when compared to the effects we have seen in the past few years because there are more support from people today. Also, I don't think that Chinese new year is not a significant event to watch out anymore when it is related to bitcoin price since it doesn't impact price that much. For sure, market cap would be lowered on some coins but expect recovery after Chinese new year hype is gone.

Not all Chinese are in CHINA, We also know that Most countries have CHINA TOWN on their places,
Chinese believe that they must have the money in celebrating the new year, they want to have wealth on the time the Year Change!
I believe that they are converting their tokens and coins into FIAT and now that the Chinese New Year ends, they are now coming back into crypto and this is the reason of the rise of the market.

The chinese New Year did not make much of an impact on Cryptocurrency this year when compared to 2017.

The past month has been a challenges on bitcoin that price over went down. And this Chinese New Year has really effect on crypto that makes price decrease. But if we can observe now after this event price seems a plus sign to increase in the market.

Yes, it can be affect on Crypto because the Chinese celebrate the new year for the happiness tand enjoying they season so the marketing in the Chinese affected and maybe decreasing in this days for temporary but the value It will also disappear when some days have passed.

in fact, the upward trend of market has happened a few days before china new year, so it seems that it does not matter much, the most influential in my opinion is a global issue that is trying to be developed massively

The year has started well as the price this time is moving more stable upwards rather than rising instantly and than crashing back badly. So instead we should prefer rise happening slowly and having a resistance which can support at a certain level will help all the investors and traders as well.

I feel like that has to do with the big crash from last month , maybe the profits were to small to take .
Maybe we still will get the bull run after new year next month.

this speculation came out more than a month ago. in fact it is more like the January effect for bitcoin: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=2767038.0 and it happens every year where we have a sizable drop in price of bitcoin.

i seriously doubt that anybody is actually "cashing out" for any holidays or festivities or anything like that because it is absurd! you never hear people selling their stocks, golds, real estate, ... or any other kind of investment to go on a holiday. they instead use their profit from these things, their bonuses, their saving,... to enjoy the holidays!

since it already happened there is no more "fuel" left in this news to cause anything at all in the market. so i expect nothing because of it.

I really think that Bitcoin and other market crashes during Chinese new year. As we all know that a huge number of investors are from Asia, and maybe they dump most of their holdings to celebrate the holiday. A lot of people are also contributing to the crash because of panic selling. This gives a good opportunity to investors because they can buy coins at cheap price.

I really think that it has something to do with the recent market crash. Maybe most people from Asia withdraw their money. That's why it's always safe to dump before the New Year starts, so that you can take advantage of the dump and buy coin at cheap price.

There is no exact effect to bitcoin with regards to chinese new year. As you can see on the chart bitcoin price is still rising and with the chinese new year already done, i guess there is no other holiday that could make an excuse for a drop of price. So hopefully the price hike would continue until the end of this year.

Yes, some Asian investors sell coins to celebrate Chinese New Year and holidays with family .. this opportunity is also used by some investors to take some advantage because of the cheap price ..

I think the January/February crash we have witnessed the last few years in advance of Chinese Lunar New Year is somewhat of a self-fulfilling prophecy. I do not think that the actual effect of the new year would be so great on the market. But as people have attributed previous crashes to it I now think that many expect it and withdraw funds from the market in advance of it, thus the timing is right but the reasoning isn't exactly.

Whales are also fully able to take advantage of this to manipulate prices, if they know that there will be a reasonably sized sell off they can use that event to create panic and cause a much bigger dump.

What do we see now? Bitcoin was already at the bottom, now began to grow, but the celebration of the new year in China does not allow him to show all his growth. I think by the end of February, bitcoin will reach the level of 13-14 thousand dollars.

My thought is that it will bring new faces to the ecosystem and the old investors going back as well. So that's what we are currently seeing, the price has been increasing specially after the Chinese New Year, current price now: above $11700.

So the previous trend still holds as of now. But we shouldn't account everything from the Chinese New Year itself. Maybe investors from other parts of the globe are also flocking again the pushed the price to this levels. Let's see. But it looks that we are now out of danger of a slide.

Always at any time in China, the market is very important to come to life, so in the very near future one should expect good growth! So I bought the bitcoins in advance, and now I'm sitting in anticipation of big growth!

Well there are some theories behind it that aims to explain the behavior. The most popular one seems to be that It's a big deal to a lot of people, and those who hold crypto are converting to fiat to prepare for it. It especially made sense back when China had one of the largest trading volumes, and it still somewhat does now because other countries like South Korea (which is a huge market) also celebrate it. It's kind of like how people were predicting Bitcoin would go down before Christmas because everyone's going to be out spending.

I'm certainly not ruling out your self-fulfilling prophecy theory though, as it does make sense. There might be people who are thinking that the market will inevitably crash because of the trend, so they decide to sell high waiting to buy low, making the prophecy go full circle.

China is world biggest and strongest country so no doubt its any action directly impact on world economy but in my opinion after China banning the bitcoin last year now Bitcoin is not directly effected by Chinese new year activities

It has nothing to do with Chinese New Year or the January effect and everything to do with taxation. Either people are withdrawing to pay taxes owed from the previous year or they are withdrawing to enjoy thier gains for a year until they must pay taxes on the withdrawal. Come on, how many people seriously invest so much of thier cash they need to withdrawal for fireworks and train tickets?

I understand the reasoning and it does make sense and is probably true. I just feel as though the falls we've seen have been much too large to be entirely down to the new year. I've got to think it would only account for a very small percentage of the actual amount of people selling.

after face up  several crashing most people expect bitcoin price could rise up again and some of them also says the price will recover back soon after chinese new year but chinese new year already passed but even though the price could climbling up and still difficult to reach again the highest price however related or not chinese new year had slightly effect for crypto

It for sure has more to do than just the Chinese New Year. We also have to consider the fact that Bitcoin went on a furious, unsustainable bull run a few weeks prior, so I'm sure a large majority of the drop was caused by simple correction. Bitcoin did stabilize at $10k for a bit though, so the drops after that likely has more to do with the January trend rather than the December fall out. For now, all we can really conclude is that there is some correlation between Chinese New Year preparations and Bitcoin drops.

The Chinese New Year has had an impact on the economy, and it's a bad thing that bitcoin broke down in the weeks leading up to the Chinese New Year.

With the end of Chinese New Year, the price of bitcoin is growing steadily.

Although China's bitcoin transactions are not large, this is strange.

I remember that there was a big drop in bitcoin during the Christmas season, and the big holiday season would have a ripple effect on the encryption market.

I dont know because people expecting that bitcoin is rise up the price and gain more the price will recover not now but soon

Well in case of bitcoins there may be some increased withdrawals if they want to use their "profits" for the festivities. Assuming they've only held a fixed amount in their wallet and it has already grown in value, they'd take some of those and leave enough more or less equivalent to their initial investment. That would still be fewer than "cashing out" all of their btc though, which is ridiculous.

There's not much decrease this time though. Must be coz the price has been slowly emerging from a plunge that people decided to just keep holding?

It might have that effect but I don't think so that it's because of the celebration but rather than how people anticipates in buying bitcoin because of its low price which in the past days reached to $11,000+.

It would have literally NO EFFECT!!!!!!
China have already banned cryptos and even the ICO'S how come you expect it to get affected...
The only possible affect will be from the people who left China for Bitcoins sake and from the ones who do it in the black ...
Otherwise I don't think there will be an effect !

In my opinion, Chinese New Year seems to have little impact!

The market is still growing slowly.

Now that the Chinese New Year holiday is over, many people return to work!

Don't know what the market will say?

Yes. The effect is yes but not all from CHINA, KOREA also has Lunar New Year and has a large crypto trading market. I think the reason behind is the ban. KOREA, JAPAN has a high effect on crypto. These reasons make me expect the value of cryptocurrency to improve in the near future.

Well, the same as usual nothings is change in Chinesse New Year. The cryptocurrencies now are gradually increasing its value since before and after the Chinesse New Year they are not affected by China has already banned cryptocurrencies exchange. What makes the bitcoin increases its because of trust of people in other country investing bitcoin.

Always when the chinese new years the bitcoin price will be go down, always every years when the chinese new year there will be the bitcoin price cheap more than usually price, but after one week the chinese new years the bitcoin value will be up again and will be the high price, I am not worry about it and keep calm and hold ny bitcoin, because always it happen and after the chinese new years bitcoin will be unusually price.

I don't believe it has an effect on the bitcoin. It will only affect bitcoin if there is a tradition that they can't spend any money until Chinese New Year.  There's no such thing as this so it doesn't have an effect on bitcoin price. If we base it on the trend last year, February is the month were bitcoin usually drops and then it will go up and down until the end of February. March will be a great month for BTC in my opinion (I am praying for this). I am expecting price increase on my birth month. LOL. We believe on things we want to believe.

I do not know about that, but from bitcoin price analysis or the market always crashes at the beginning of the year. you can see it on the internet, it is true china holds the biggest market in crypto but I guess that's not the main factor.
after a crash at the beginning of the year usually the market will rise 10 to 20% and then will stagnate until mid-year.
from mid-year he will start up until the end of the year.
CMIIW. ;)

I think you guys have it wrong. In Hong Kong the markets actually improve just before CNY in expectation of a better year ahead. The falls we have experienced are due to FUD, fake news, BS and the like. The market was growing too fast, and was overdue a correction. The FUD continues and the crappy ICO's need to stop. The market will recover, but not just yet and definately not because of CNY.

Quite apparent that the Chinese calendar year too had its own toll on the bitcoin price which was right before the actual date of February 15. The bearishish did ended that same week and we have seen bitcoin doing a gradual steady rise again.

You take any Chinese thing they always disturb the crypto market and make us feel like we are standing into dessert and hunting for the water. What I mean is China affect the crypto on huge scale and make it go down like crazy. The last year's China ban was one of the example of this when the panic attack driven through every crypto lovers mind. Not only this but also the major exchanger ban from the China in 2015 was great crash and much more. So the same thing happened this year too when the Chinese new year came in mass withdrawals might have taken to crush it down. We went all the down to 5 k this year start. This country is amazing on how they manipulate. See now the China new year is gone and we are back on track.

chinese new year is really affecting bitcoin because since it finished it suddenly pumps the value of btc in the market so it really affects it not only I noticed but also other bitcoin users that it's also attention.

Of course, I also think that the Chinese New Year has influenced the market of crypto-currencies. But I hope that from the next month the market will stabilize and trade will enter a normal rhythm.

The price of bitcoin has grown, in comparison with the one that was a few weeks ago, but as we see today the growth rates are not so great, and I do not think that the period of the "bears" is over.

I will support with you that the Chinese new year holiday, the investor sell their bitcoin to celebrate this event .But after that the holiday the value of bitcoin was accellerate again its because many investors started to buy bitcoin and altcoins after holiday.

China has large commercial cryptocurrency transactions. But it is not the black spot for the market to fall. The ban from China is justified for conservatism. They do not want their coins poured into bitcoin and flow to the world. Behind there are Korea, Japan, India, the impact is significant.

You mean that price of coin will up after holidays, can you suggest when it's happended ?

Chinese is the biggest population in the world. So in the event their is a grand celebration for them. Expect that it will affect the crypto currency world as many of them cashing out for the celebration.

Chinese New Year is obviously a season when most asians cash in on their investments.
We expect to see more crypto currency an buyers.Hence, demand and supply law
must take its course as prices are expected to drop due to dumping practices.
Neverthless, investors may use the opportunity to mop up and store for a boom
in profit during bullish times in the market.

Not just only China, there is also Korea, VietNam, etc

Bitcoin price crashes when was the day before Chinese New Year come. Crashes of price will come unexpected when hit the market and where it will happen. The exact days time and range cannot fathom as the market flows in not a bias motion. Chinese New Year or not the price wouldn't pattern.

maybe Lunar effects on the world of crypto is the decline in the price of oin gan and all altcpin also come down gan and it has been every year when the price of bitcoin and altcoin always down, but until now I do not know the cause of btcoin and altcpin always down in the Imlek.

It does have an effect, but it has a similar effect on all markets. Cryptocurrency is not special. Volumes are rising now, but the market is suffering because of the interpretation of the notes from the Fed to raise interest rates in the US. This has a ripple effect on a lot of markets, including crypto. This is why you saw a rise at the beginning of the week and it has sunk the past two days. Notes were published Tuesday am.

The market has risen in recent days, then fell. It's hard to say what influenced it, New Year's celebration in China, or other news. If we consider that the celebration of the new year in China lasts 15 days, then in full force the Chinese will take up work only in early March.

I know for sure that the Chinese New Year has influenced the delivery of parcels from aliexpress :-). But, judging by the dynamics of bitcoin, the price is falling. I would buy now a little!

Dont believe that this time was Chinese new year big even its just like normal new year. Now we are in some we could say stable range with some small ups and down in price in daily levels nothing big just to be reminded that everything is in order. For one is sure that we could expect some price rise in next few weeks.

China has only 20% Bitcoin reserves, no major influence on the whole. they are just good at making monopoly and some kind of fud.
already several times they succeeded and bitcoin keep coming back. forget about china. ;D

Maybe it will affect crypto, becuase i think more investors in china are to busy for their work here in crypto,  so all of their assets will sell them, specially in botcoin,  bitcoin now loosses again her value. But more on voluem. 

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The Chinese New Year has had no effect on bitcoin's price at all... Because last year China banned bitcoin and closed down all their exchanges.

I don't know why people keep talking about China - they live in a dictatorship that has capital controls and has banned bitcoin and bitcoin transactions. Even if they wanted to buy in person, they're taking a great risk, and could end up being executed for it.

China doesn't drive the bitcoin price, it's being driven by the west.

True, I was expecting a more dramatic changes in the market not just on bitcoin but to altcoins as well since it is even expected to have btc moon because of Chinese New year but then again I guess it just proves on how unpredictable the market is.

often a big day or a particular religious event becomes the cause of the rise or fall of the value of a stock. this of course also applies to crypto currency that could be affected, but that's just my opinion alone

After what's all been said and done. There was no dramatic changes in the market as everyone has suspected. We are all very happy thinking that the end of the Chinese New Year will bring new hope to all of us to end this bearish trend, sadly though it was not the case.

So its safe so assume by now that in the next coming years, no holidays will have a big impact on bitcoin. Its still based on what people though about it, whether investing on it for short/long term, or quickly dumping it during crashes or if they needed fiat ASAP.

On that day we could really expect price is fluctuating that affects always the market. Price drops down because of that event it is also a good to buy or invest in crypto.

A lot of chinese bitcoin enthusiasts or even those who just celebrates Chinese New Year and have invested on cryptocurrency cashed out their tokens amd converted them into fiat to buy things and foods for the chinese new year. Resulting to a drop in value last February.However, since there are more people supporting and actively engaging in the bitcoin industry we didn't felt the impact that much.

It turns out that Chinese New Year has little impact on BTC!

China has shut down many of its exchanges.

And Chinese people like to speculate, buy BTC when the market is low, sell at high time!