Bitcoin Forum

What do you think?  Are we headed lower and are only seeing a temporary “Dead Cat Bounce” or are we headed higher?

Hard to tell. I haven't seen one single year coming off a huge pump like last year be a good one, and we're currently hanging around the 50-60% mark of the ATH which is what the 2013 pump ended up floating around at after it ended.

I do think that we're probably not going to go below that $6k low any time soon.

Obviously, 2013 and 2017 is different, but usually pumps follow a similar pattern. As I've said before, even if in 2018 there is further increases in price it's definitely not going to be as much as 2017. Also it's important to note that the 2-3 years between halvings have significant less market interest than the halving year or 1 year after that, aka 2012/2013 and 2016/2017.

On the other hand, a lot of other people are saying that BTC will continue to go up this year. If you are a long term holder honestly none of this should concern you a whole lot.

Halving doesn't matter any at this point, we're in a much different part of the adoption phase now. Bitcoin has now emerged in to the mass media all around the world and everyone is just starting to figure it out right now. That is a much more important factor than charts, halving and TA. The future of bitcoin cannot be compared to anything in history either.

The current rise is quite steady and now I'm inclined to think that it is more likely to be a real recovery, not another upward correction before another leg down. However, I'm still very cautious about predicting a new ATH soon or even this year. The recovery may be long. Of course, nobody knows for sure...

it is hard to tell but all i can say is that if it were really a dead cat  bounce and price were supposed to go lower, then it would have never came above $10k because it was a major resistance which is now a big support line and it would take a lot to go back below it now.

ps: i can't choose any of the 3 options in the poll because i say the first on is not going to happen. but also the second won't either. there is a better chance that we keep seeing this same slow creep upwards instead of shooting up to something like $30k. and it may even last a couple of months or a good part of 2018 even.

I don’t think this is a dead cat bounce, no. I think we could potentially see a new ATH by the end of 2018, lots of positives to look at. We could see the implementation of LN which would be rocket fuel. It’ll be a long year though, let’s see what happens.

It depends where the market will find support over the next days. If it stays above 9200$, then a third leg up becomes probable and later a higher low (than 6000$), with bullish implications.

People who expect to see Bitcoin soar the way it has in the past are going to be disappointed. The crypto market is fundamentally different now. Bitcoin is mainstream and the number of new potential buyers has decreased dramatically. Furthermore, there is tons of competition among alt coins. It is now just as easy for anyone to buy any of the crypto offered on Coinbase, so why would they choose Bitcoin given its well-known technical issues?

I won't be surprised if bitcoin continues up for a little bit, but the days of 10x returns are over. There have never been fewer reasons to buy bitcoin than now.

It is hard to predict bitcoin price but I think we will see new lows soon considering the fact that there are a lot of altcoins offered in the market and there is the slow transaction issue and expensive fee issue on bitcoin's blockchain. At the current time,there are many more altcoins that ate better to use for a faster and cheaper transactions which is a great factor for the decrease in btc demand.

I know it was big arse fall, nearly 75%, but it still feels a little too 'easy' to me for it to be completely over and now onwards and upwards.

However it's easy to discount the sheer number of extra people involved now compared to the end of 2013 and their varying strategies. There are many times more people chasing a number of coins that hasn't changed.

It seems to me that someone has decided to profit when the price approached 12 000$,taking into account the opportunity to buy under 6000$ level recently -100% profit looks very good.I think that after few days we can expect again rise toward 12k$,and what is happen is just small correction expected after 6000$ price increase.

Somehow I expect to see 15 000$ in March,this year could finally solve transaction/fees problems and push price to new ATH.

to be fair the drop that you are mentioning is a perfectly normal and common thing after each big rise. it was a mere correction and it happened a couple of times (8 times to be exact) ever since the very bottom which was $5900ish
the most recent one that I can refer you to is the drop from $11300 to $10100 and as long as these "lows" that are reached are increasing, I call it a rise not a dead cat bounce. which is why I also expect $15k in March.

No. I remain bullish after the recent increase in the price, and I think we're still on the verge of a new bull run.

Right now, Bitcoin is gaining trust back from people, the public perception on Bitcoin is shifting after weeks of negative sentiment in the market. Just take a look at what's happening with altcoins, they're going down against Bitcoin (fiat and satoshis), money is finally flowing back into Bitcoin.

Also, all we've seen over the past few days are positive news instead of negativity and FUD: low fees, exchanges adopting SegWit, steady increase in the price (look at the 7d charts). Positive news and FOMO will make the price skyrocket in no time. So, overall, this isn't a dead cat bounce, we're heading upwards.

The reaction to the lows in January was a dead cat bounce.  This current trend has been sustained and broken through technical trends/resistance.  Not substantially though, and maybe thats a virtue, what most people really need is a month or two of steady consolidation and allowing other coins to find their true values.

We've rebounded pretty well already to consider anything a dead cat bounce at this point. There have been a lot of mini dcb's during the crash but i think right now, it's going to be a real push to get back to where we were last december

yes, but not as high as the levels of $15000, we will probably stay in the zone between $9700 to $12,500 for some time... as I said in the past post, I believe that this price increase we have is due to the hard fork of February 28 ( bitcoin private ). People are buying bitcoin and are selling their altcoins to buy bitcoin because of the hard fork and then they will sell their  bitcoin private  and buy bitcoin.
Of course this is my theory is not any financial advice and I may be wrong.

Agreed, TA suggested there would be tough resistance around 11500-12000 and that's proven to be true. Couple that with the fact that for anyone who bought at the low of 6000, 12000 represents a 100% increase and there will be a lot of profit taking. A lot of the resistance was broken down well and I think BTC will be back to the mid to high 11000s in a day or two before eventually passing 12k.

We are not heading anywhere near the most recent bottom, but we just have to accept that none of the current levels offer any type of support, and that we at the same time shouldn't expect the market to increase further. If we maintain current $10k levels, we're probably up for another bounce back up. However, as stated before, there are no actual support levels, which makes a sub $10k dive very possible. In that case we'll be up for lower $9k at worst, but I just expect it to be a brief sub $10k visit. I can only advice people to buy as many coins as possible below the $10k level if the opportunity is there. It won't be this low for ever....

The $11,000s was an obvious take-profit area as stated elsewhere. Now we’re left waiting to see where bulls take a stand. The key to trading this market is patience and reaction, not prediction. Bears remain in control as long as we remain below the local highs (which correspond to January’s breakdown, the $11,000s).

The ideal setup is a bullish reaction off the $8,000 area. It’s an area of prior consolidation, somewhere where bulls who didn’t knife catch the $6,000 dump will be seeking lower risk entry. I’ll have some bids waiting in that area, and will be looking to add once I see some strength from bulls. Then, eyes on the $14,000s and beyond.

Even if we make new lows and push to $3,000....this dip is probably the opportunity of a lifetime. Don’t sell the bottom. :P

I completely agree with this statement. We are seeing a surge in numbers in terms of long term holders, which is completely different to 2013's speculative bubble. But to say that it's completely over and we're going to increase in price for the entire year after this seems a bit too dramatic.

I'd be carefully optimistic, for the moment.

Even if this turned out to be one of the last 'dead cat bounces' of bitcoin for the time being, I doubt that it's going to crash under $10k again, when and if it comes to the dump. We should continue our way up for now, potentially to $15k or beyond even.

Or it could be nervous people relieved that it hit $11,500 and who cashed out thankful they'd got out with a small profitl. We saw this in early 2017, when bitcoin regained £1,000 and the bagholders from 2014 thankfully cashed out.

No I think its substantially different from a dead cat type bounce.    Those kind of buys fit into people who short Bitcoin and then need to buy it back, creating a short term buying trend.     This is more established then just that limited amount, there is ongoing demand it would seem.   For example fees came down some which helps maintain usage and underlying demand in market

to be honest this is a very weird question to ask! and i had to double check the date of the topic because if you asked it back when price went up from $5900-$6000 to $7000-$8000 then you could have been on to something.

but now it is up from that price to $11000 which is >80% increase. you need a super cat to make that kind of bounce when dead!

Theres always a super cat after the big crash. Sometimes the cat is dead. Sometimes it's just napping.

We are slowly transitioning and will continue to do so in to a scenario where bitcoin is far more dispersed. I know that people speak of whales all the time and how they are accumulating but as the value of BTC continues to grow the spread of bitcoin will only increase. Many people are still new to bitcoin and that means they're much more easily influenced by fear and for a while we might see such large dips and volatility as a more frequent thing.


Are these in essence not the same, they're profit taking just in different forms. Either way they end up being people who are willing and happy to sell and they need to be replaced by people willing to buy up at a price which is %70-%100% higher than just a couple of weeks ago.

It's def a DCB.  You could already see it a mile away, and BTC is due.  Check the chart from Jan. 2016 to Dec. 2017...   After a certain trend up reversed, you would think that it was all over and start going down, only to see it get back up again and reach new highs.

Not this time...  BTC needs some rest too.  Lol.

But I don't think it's gonna reach new lows.

Isn't this very contradictory, if you believe it is a dead cat bounce then by definition should you not expect that it will continue to fall and reach new lows?

Wups...  Yup you're right.  My bad.  What I meant was this could be a temporary recovery and BTC is gonna down soon, but not lower than the recent low.  I think it's gonna go sideways for a while, and who knows where it could go next.  If it goes further down, then it's a DCB.  If not, then yay!  :)

Market still testing support, but some indicators are worsening. Nothing yet points to a lower low than ~6k$ on the Feb 6th.
So far the cat doesn't look dead, it's more like a cat in ICU (intensive care unit).

Fair, so something along the lines of 'it could be, could not be'  ;D I think that's pretty much how it should be, no one knows either way. I do think that the price has found some ground around 9500. Let's see if it can hold for another day or so.

Cat's not dead. Probably still got all nine lives left in fact. For Bitcoin to start losing one of those lives, we'd need to see it seriously threaten prices of over a year ago - and that's below $1.5k. No doubt there'll be people believing this could still happen, but it'll be a stretch of imagination to see in in 2018. Crystal ball doesn't seem to allow looking beyond the horizon, but there's got to be a lot of things that need to happen for the cat to get skinned the first time.

What'll it be? Alts finally gaining supremacy? That won't be until two or three years when all these utility tokens MAYBE see some serious adoption and use beyond the confines of trading. Countries simply cracking down? Not in the current climate of governments warming up to blockchain and crypto, eager to forget the hurt of the last financial crisis.

Yup.  But I wouldn't hold my breath.  Hope for the best and prepare for the worst, I guess...  But as far as I'm concerned 1 BTC = 1 BTC.  Sure I check BTC/USD, but never for the purpose of trading.  I haven't converted my core holdings for trading BTC - fiat - BTC in a while, it's BTC - alts - back to BTC as my base.

Your biggest clue on this failed bounce is to observe the other side to prices which is the dollar mostly.    If we see US Dollar strength then it clips the prices of many commodities especially those used as proxy currency such as bitcoin.

The ongoing effect is Dollar weakness, Bitcoin itself may pullback and suffer lack of interest by itself but for a proper sell off it requires Dollars to start a trend of rising.

Recent news of a very large USA government spending deficit does not create an atmosphere for dollar strength at this time.      I only expect much weaker Bitcoin pricing if it suffers great competition from a range of alternatives like other crypto and assets such as gold